CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS, RULING PARTY NEGOTIATE; JOINT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 001021

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM GG
SUBJECT: CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS, RULING PARTY NEGOTIATE; JOINT
OPPOSITION CANCELS MANDATES

Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: On June 12, Giorgi Targamadze's Christian
Democratic Movement (CDM) reached tentative agreement with
Parliamentary Speaker Davit Bakradze and the ruling United
National Movement (UNM) on many of the terms whereby the CDM
would enter Parliament. These terms include changes to the
election and legal systems, the media, and Parliament. The
opposition appears to have won minimal victories, as the UNM
made nominal compromises. Meanwhile, the Joint Opposition
and Labor Party denounced the agreement as "pre-arranged."
On June 12, Joint Opposition leader David Gamkrelidze said
he would not accept his seat in Parliament. On June 13, he
and 12 other bloc leaders formally canceled their mandates,
yielding 12 vacant seats out 150 in Parliament. Depending on
the Labor Party's pending decision, the opposition will
control up to 19 seats, with two by-elections this fall. End
summary.

CDM, UNM Reportedly Reach Preliminary Agreement
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2. (SBU) On June 12, according to press reports, the CDM
reached tentative agreement with the UNM over their
memorandum. The key points of agreement reportedly include:

- One lawmaker who is not a member of the parliamentary
majority will be appointed to the Supreme Council of Justice.

- The ruling party agrees to not amend the constitution
"without active consultations with the opposition" (as
opposed to "agreement with the opposition.")

- Authorities pledge to "study and analyze" elections
violations, rather than to "investigate" them, as previously
demanded.

- The ruling party will establish legal guarantees to provide
"balanced" access to public TV for "qualified" political
parties (those who won at least 4 percent of the vote in the
previous parliamentary elections and at least 3 percent in
the last local elections).

- The number required to establish a faction is reduced to 6
MPs from 7.

- The ruling party reiterated its readiness to provide
positions of vice-speaker and deputy chairmen of
parliamentary committees to the opposition.

However, several key points of the "Anti-Crisis Memorandum"
were not addressed. The following two demands were
reportedly dismissed or refused by Bakradze and the UNM.

- Direct elections of mayors and governors was refused.

- There was no discussion of allowing the opposition official
status of parliamentary minority.

But Substantial Concessions?
--------------


3. (U) Initial public impressions are that the government's
concessions are not substantial, but may provide political
cover for the CDM to enter Parliament. Daily newspaper "24
Saati" analyzed the provisional agreement. They noted
neither the position of vice-speaker nor deputy chairmen have
any particular influence over parliamentary decision-making.
Furthermore, while the ability to form a faction is a boon in
terms of being able to meet with international missions,
their influence within parliament is minimal. The paper
expects that Targamadze will present another amendment making
further demands including re-chairing the Committee on Human
Rights with an opposition member, insisting on equal
representation in investigative commissions, and forming a
special committee for budget control, to be chaired by an
opposition MP. "24 Saati" speculated that none of these
demands are likely to be met.


4. (U) Additional questions surround the CDM's demand for
opposition MPs to chair Parliamentary committees. Ruling
party MPs were elected as chairmen for all 13 Parliamentary
committees on June 11. Two new committees will also be
established, reportedly both to be chaired by ruling party
MPs. (Note: All Parliamentary leadership positions will be
reported septel. End note.)

Joint Opposition Cries Foul
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5. (C) The Joint Opposition and the Labor Party were absent
from the meeting. Some opposition leaders insinuated that
the memorandum and subsequent talks were "pre-arranged."
Mamuka Katsitadze of the New Rightists Party called the CDM
"collaborators" and said they "sold out." Joint Opposition
accusations that the CDM is financed by figures close to
Saakashvili continue. Meanwhile, Targamadze continues to
push for change from within the government. Dima Shashkin of
the International Republican Institute (IRI) told Poloff on
June 12 that if the opposition attacks on Targamadze
continue, he will have no choice but to take the gloves off
and respond in kind.


6. (C) Shalva Natelashvili's Labor Party has been largely
silent. Two members from their party list have agreed to go
into Parliament, regardless of the Party's decision.
Meanwhile, Natelashvili continues to call for a boycott,
although he has not announced publicly whether he will accept
his mandate. Natelashvili has appealed for outside
assistance in encouraging Gamkrelidze to join Parliament.
(Comment: Party leaders have bought time, as the CDM and
Joint Opposition take center stage. It is likely they are
watching the results of the ongoing negotiations and the
public's response, before deciding whether and when to join
Parliament. End comment.)

Gamkrelidze's "Moral Decision"
--------------


7. (C) On June 12 Gamkrelidze told Poloff he would not join
Parliament. Gamkrelidze said that he would lose credibility
and integrity if he were to join this "illegitimate"
Parliament. He claimed he cannot confer legitimacy on this
"corrupt, Soviet-style government" by enjoining it.
Gamkrelidze said that his supporters understand his actions
as a "moral decision" and he promised to continue to speak
out against the government from outside Parliament "as long
as I can." He alleged that the Ministry of Internal Affairs
is attacking and arresting opposition activists, and claimed
they may come after him in the future.


8. (C) Gamkrelidze noted that his party receives state
funding from the government, based on his results in the
January presidential election. Gamkrelidze asked for
assistance should the government rescind this funding.
Poloff acknowledged Gamkrelidze's request and the call for a
boycott, but argued Gamkrelidze could more effectively fight
for liberal democracy inside of Parliament. Poloff also said
it would be difficult to garner support for Gamkrelidze's
party if he gave up his mandate. Gamkrelidze remained
unmoved. (Comment: Gamkrelidze appeared stressed. However,
many Georgians believe that he has made a decision which is
now culturally impossible to reverse. End comment.)

Joint Opposition Turns in Mandates,
Seats to go Unfilled
--------------


9. (U) Gamkrelidze and 11 other Joint Opposition MPs-elect
formally requested their mandates be canceled by the
Parliament on June 13. Only four of the 17 Joint Opposition
candidates have said publicly that they will not give up
their mandates. One, Jondi Baghaturia is reportedly still
wavering. Consequently, two majoritarian and 10 party list
seats will be left vacant in the Parliament. By-elections
will be held this fall for the two majoritarian seats
(Gamkrelidze's and David Saganelidze's). The 10 party list
seats will remain vacant for the duration of the Parliament,
following the Joint Opposition's annulment of their party
list. This will leave 14 or 15 opposition members in
Parliament (two independent opposition majoritarians elected
on the Republican ticket, six CDM members, four or five
likely members from the Joint Opposition, and two from
Labor). If the rest of Labor eventually joins, this would
increase the number of opposition MPs to 18 or 19 out of 150
total seats.
TEFFT