UZBEKISTAN: AMBASSADOR'S VISIT TO TERMEZ

C O N F I D E N T I A L TASHKENT 000768

SIPDIS

ASTANA FOR ALMATY/USAID
DEPT FOR DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/02/2018
TAGS: PGOV ECON EINV ELTN ETRD KHIV MOPS PHUM PINS
PREL, AF, UZ
SUBJECT: UZBEKISTAN: AMBASSADOR'S VISIT TO TERMEZ
HIGHLIGHTS REGION'S STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE

REF: A. TASHKENT 764

B. TASHKENT 722

Classified By: Pol/Econ Jonathan Davis for reasons 1.4 (B, D).


1. (C) Summary: Ambassador Norland made his first trip to
Surkhandarya Province June 25-27, visiting a number of
strategic sites in and around Termez and meeting with local
government officials, representatives of a USAID-supported
NGO, and regional human rights activists. The visit
highlighted Termez's critical position on an important
north-south transport and commercial corridor through
Afghanistan and underscored its strategic importance to
U.S. and Uzbek security and economic interests. At present,
Surkhandarya's economy appears frail and trade across the
Afghan border seems relatively limited. Additionally, drug
use and HIV/AIDS infections are reportedly on the rise in
the region. Improvements in political and economic
conditions, however, could help reestablish Termez as a hub
for expanded trade and commerce with Afghanistan and
reinvigorate the regional economy. Termez could also grow
in strategic importance to the United States and its allies
as an expanded supply route for the International Security
Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, particularly if
conditions in Pakistan and the Khyber Pass continue to
remain unstable. End summary.


2. (SBU) Over June 25-27, Ambassador Norland and emboffs
visited Termez and nearby sites in Surkhandarya Province.
The trip included a meeting with the Hokim (Mayor) of
Termez; a tour of the joint Uzbek-German airbase in Termez;
a visit to the Ayratom-Hayraton Border Crossing to
Afghanistan (ref A); a meeting with the Director of the
USAID-supported Termez Youth Power Center; a discussion
with two local human rights activists; and a tour of the
Termez City River Port (ref A).

Hokim of Termez Paints Rosy Picture of Regional Economy
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3. (C) On June 26, Ambassador Norland met with the recently
appointed Hokim of Termez, Karakhan Abdujabborovich
Tursonov. Tursonov spoke positively about economic and
social progress in Termez and Surkhandarya Province more
broadly, giving the (somewhat exaggerated) impression of
extensive industrial and infrastructural development in the
region. In particular, Tursonov heralded the opening of new
factories in and around Termez, including an Uzbek-Turkish
joint venture to produce flour and an Uzbek-Chinese joint
venture to bottle water and other beverages. Tursonov
confirmed that there were no U.S.-Uzbek joint ventures in
the region but expressed hope that such projects would be
undertaken in the future.


4. (C) In acknowledgement of President Karimov's
designation of 2008 as the Year of Youth, Tursonov
highlighted the importance of providing young Uzbeks with
educational opportunities and jobs. Tursonov told emboffs
that Termez was making significant investments that would
improve local education and expand employment
opportunities. He also noted that Termez City provides
office space free of charge to the USAID-supported Youth
Power Center (YPC),and he fully endorsed the Ambassador's
planned visit to the YPC that same day.

Germans to Draw Down Presence at Termez Airbase
-------------- -


5. (C) During a visit to the joint Uzbek-German airbase in
Termez on June 26, German Operational Air Wing (OAW)
Commander Colonel Willi Kamuf informed the Ambassador of
the Germans' plan to downsize their military presence in
Termez by August 30. Kamuf noted that the drawdown would
reduce the airbase's status from that of an OAW with eight
C-160 military transport planes and over 200 German
military personnel to that of an air transport hub with
around 80 military personnel and no aircraft stationed
permanently on base. The German OAW currently transports
ISAF personnel, VIPs, and supplies to and from Afghanistan,
in addition to serving as an emergency extraction and
medical evacuation hub. These mission roles will remain
unchanged after the downsizing. Kamuf told emboffs that the
OAW's CH-53 helicopters had already been transferred to the
German airbase in Mazar-e-Sharif and reported that the C-
160s would follow soon.


6. (SBU) Comment: The drawdown of the German presence is
likely to have minor short to medium-term economic
repercussions for Termez, perhaps similar to those
experienced after the U.S. departure from Karshi Khanabad.
As one possible indicator of the positive economic impact
of the German presence to date, Colonel Kamuf noted that
Termez now boasts over fifty Internet cafes as compared
with none when the Germans first arrived. End comment.

Director of Youth Center Cites Growing Drug, AIDS Problems
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7. (C) During a June 26 meeting, the Director of the USAID-
supported Termez Youth Power Center (YPC),Oliya
Ilmuradova, informed the Ambassador of rising drug use
among youth in Surkhandarya Province. Ilmuradova cited a
lack of job prospects and extremely poor regional economic
conditions as factors contributing to increased drug use.
In particular, she highlighted limited economic
opportunities for young women, noting that approximately 80
percent of Surkhandarya's women do not receive higher
education or occupational training. Ilmuradova also
informed emboffs that HIV/AIDS presents a significant and
growing problem. Denau, a town in northern Surkhandarya
Province, reportedly has the second highest concentration
of HIV/AIDS cases in Uzbekistan.


8. (SBU) Ilmuradova informed emboffs that the Termez YPC
offers a number of educational and social programs for at-
risk youth to help combat these growing problems, including
courses on hair styling and embroidery for women, computer
literacy and English language classes, and a number of
regularly scheduled sports and social activities for youth.
The YPC also has a Resource Center stocked with English-
language books that was established with support from a
Democracy Commission Grant from Embassy Tashkent.
Ilmuradova expressed appreciation for U.S. support of the
Termez YPC and confirmed the center's close relationship
with the Termez hokimyat, noting that the YPC receives free
office space from the city. She also informed emboffs that
some YPC employees are working on a voluntary basis while
the center seeks additional sources of funding.

Local Rights Activists Cite Desperate Economic Conditions
-------------- --------------


9. (C) On June 26, the Ambassador met with two human rights
activists from the town of Boysun in Surkhandarya Province:
Fakhriddin Tilloev, chief of the unregistered "Ozod Fukaro"
("Free Citizen") human rights group and a member of the

opposition Erk political party, and Abdurayemov Majid, a
freelance journalist who served four years in prison for
publishing articles critical of the Government of
Uzbekistan (GOU). Tilloev and Majid informed emboffs of
extremely low standards of living in Surkhandarya,
including widespread unemployment, inflation, problems with
potable water, and limited to no industrial investment in
the region. Tilloev reported that 800,000 of Surkhandarya's
two million residents are now working in Russia and other
countries, and remittances from those working abroad
reportedly sustain the bulk of those who remain. He noted
that unemployment has become such a vast problem that last
year a public demonstration against local economic
conditions was held before the regional hokim's office,
leading to his dismissal and the recent appointment of a
new hokim with the expectation that he would be "stronger."
Tilloev reported that use of heroin, opium, and hashish is
on the rise in Surkhandarya and confirmed reports of the
region's growing HIV/AIDS epidemic. Tilloev also informed
emboffs of a rumor that the GOU is building a new prison in
Surkhandarya modeled on Uzbekistan's notorious Zhaslyk
prison. (Note: Tilloev reported to emboffs an alleged case
of torture and imprisonment of four supposed Hizb ut-Tahrir
members in Surkhandarya Province during a June 20 meeting
in Tashkent. Ref B. End note.)


10. (C) Comment: The discussion with Tilloev and Majid was
at times rambling, and in many cases the assertions
appeared to be based more in rumor than in fact. At one
point, Tilloev claimed German soldiers were raping Uzbek
women in Termez and reported that pregnancies and births
resulted in several instances. We have found no credible
reports to corroborate these rumors. Despite doubts about
certain claims, contacts like Tilloev and Majid remain
valuable sources of information in a region that remains
difficult to penetrate due to the lack of a free press and
restrictions on the flow of information to and from
Surkhandarya Province, which remains a closed area due to
its proximity to Afghanistan. Indeed, Tilloev reported that
internet access in Termez is highly censored and
restricted, and internet access outside of Termez is
reportedly nonexistent. End comment.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) Termez--and Surkhandarya Province more generally--
occupies a strategic position along a north-south transport
corridor stretching from South Asia through Afghanistan to
Central Asia and beyond. Despite a generally rosy
assessment by the Hokim of Termez, economic conditions
appear to be deteriorating in Surkhandarya, and with the
downsizing of the German airbase in Termez, the economy is
likely to weaken further before it improves. Still, the
region's centrality to a very significant transport and
commercial corridor suggests significant economic potential
if political and economic conditions improve. Surkhandarya
and Termez in particular could also grow in strategic
importance as an expanded supply route for U.S. and ISAF
forces in Afghanistan, particularly if conditions in
Pakistan and the Khyber Pass continue to remain unstable.


12. (C) At present, however, GOU officials appear to view
the Uzbek border with Afghanistan as a liability rather
than an opportunity. A quote of President Karimov on the
frontispiece of a book on Termez's history captures the
essence of the current mindset: "Termez has always been an
iron stronghold against enemies who threatened our country

at its southern border, and today it remains a powerful
fortress on our southern frontier." If and when this
mindset changes, Termez and Surkhandarya Province more
broadly could stand to benefit significantly from expanded
commercial traffic along this historically important north-
south corridor.
NORLAND