Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08TASHKENT546
2008-05-13 11:52:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tashkent
Cable title:  

UZBEKISTAN: INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE REFLECTS

Tags:  PREL ASEC EAID ECIN KNNP KTIA MASS PBTS PGOV 
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P 131152Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY TASHKENT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9637
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUEHAH/AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT 3947
RUEHTA/AMEMBASSY ASTANA 0160
RUEHEK/AMEMBASSY BISHKEK 4562
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 0436
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 0373
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 0440
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 4163
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 2444
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 0475
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 1108
RUEHUM/AMEMBASSY ULAANBAATAR 0113
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 7403
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0247
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 1167
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC 0020
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 06 TASHKENT 000546 

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/07/2018
TAGS: PREL ASEC EAID ECIN KNNP KTIA MASS PBTS PGOV
PINS, PTER, SNAR, SOCI, AF, UZ
SUBJECT: UZBEKISTAN: INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE REFLECTS
GROWING REGIONAL INTEREST IN AFGHANISTAN

REF: (A) TASHKENT 449 (B) MOSCOW 520

Classified By: Poloff Steven Prohaska for reasons 1.4 (b, d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 06 TASHKENT 000546

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/07/2018
TAGS: PREL ASEC EAID ECIN KNNP KTIA MASS PBTS PGOV
PINS, PTER, SNAR, SOCI, AF, UZ
SUBJECT: UZBEKISTAN: INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE REFLECTS
GROWING REGIONAL INTEREST IN AFGHANISTAN

REF: (A) TASHKENT 449 (B) MOSCOW 520

Classified By: Poloff Steven Prohaska for reasons 1.4 (b, d).


1. (C) Summary: Uzbekistan hosted a significant
international conference focusing on regional security,
particularly the situation in Afghanistan, on April 29-30.
The event illustrates Uzbekistan's continuing concerns
about the security situation in Afghanistan as well as
growing regional interest in the issue. Several Government
of Uzbekistan (GOU) officials used the forum to reinforce
statements President Karimov has made, particularly
regarding the "6 plus 3" proposal he presented at the
NATO/EAPC summit in April. The presence of an influential
Russian expert delegation and of an Afghan national
security official brought to life some of the interesting
regional dynamics. The two days of discussions spanned a
range of issues including threat perceptions,
intergovernmental cooperation to promote development and
security, and ways to stabilize Afghanistan. The
willingness of so many of these actors to further engage in
Afghanistan is an encouraging development. This conference
could foreshadow additional gatherings devoted to regional
security in Uzbekistan or Afghanistan, which will provide
us with opportunities to gain further insight on the
perspectives of key states and organizations involved in
Afghanistan as well as to shape their views on issues of
importance to the United States. End summary.


2. (C) Uzbekistan's quasi-independent Foundation for

Regional Policy and Center for Political Studies--with the
support of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in
Europe, USAID, and the U.S. NGO Institute for New
Democracies--hosted a significant international conference
with approximately 200 participants entitled "Problems of
Ensuring Security and Sustainable Development in Central
Asia" in Tashkent April 29-30. Some participants were
government officials but most made clear they were speaking
in their private capacities.

Uzbekistan's Perceived Threats, Views of Afghanistan
-------------- --------------


3. (SBU) Azamat Toshev, Deputy Director of the Institute
for Strategic and Regional Studies Under the President of
Uzbekistan, warned participants against getting bogged down
in "geopolitical games" that result in duplication of
effort, and then outlined the GOU's view of security
threats. He identified the threat of nuclear proliferation
as Uzbekistan's most serious concern, and also cited
narcotics, crime, illegal migration, extremism, and
terrorism as key threats. Toshev criticized "ineffective"
international efforts in Afghanistan, asserting that the
Taliban has increased its activity and drug trafficking has
been on the rise. "Uzbekistan wants stability in
Afghanistan," he said. He noted that Uzbekistan has
advocated reconstruction and that President Karimov
believes military effort alone is not the solution to the
situation in Afghanistan. Toshev described the importance
of additional social projects, more jobs for the people of
Afghanistan, consensus among stakeholders, and Karimov's "6
plus 3" proposal. (Comment: Toshev's comments track
closely with those of other GOU officials who have spoken
with Embassy staff. End comment.) Toshev later bristled
at a perceived accusation that Afghanistan's neighbors do
nothing to combat the flow of precursor chemicals into
Afghanistan for opium production, insisting that Uzbekistan
interdicts these precursors and that some of these are in

TASHKENT 00000546 002 OF 006


fact produced in Afghanistan.


4. (SBU) Doniyor Kurbanov, another Deputy Director of the
Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies, said that
only the Afghan people themselves can provide for the
sustainable development of their society. He suggested
improving the dialogue between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Kurbanov also recommended reducing the military aspect of
support to Afghanistan, citing recent commentary from
President Karimov, and adopting a more political-focused
approach that promotes dialogue with Afghanistan's
neighbors, China, Russia, and NATO. Director of the
Foundation of Regional Policy Sayfiddin Juraev agreed,
stating that existing mechanisms have "exhausted
themselves" and an approach too focused on the military
sphere could exacerbate problems in Afghanistan, leading to
"spillover" into neighboring states.


5. (SBU) Zohidilla Munavvarov, a member of Uzbekistan's
Parliament and Chairman of the Imam al-Bukhari Republican
Scientific and Educational Center, said that Uzbekistan
values stability. Stability in Afghanistan is important to
the entire Central Asian region and will facilitate the
region's development, he said. Munavvarov recommended
strengthening local authorities in Afghanistan in support
of this objective.

The Russians Weigh In
--------------


6. (SBU) President of the Russian Foundation of Oriental
Studies S. Luzyanin said that attempts to democratize
Afghanistan have not been effective and that the Afghans
are not accepting this. If the situation deteriorates,
such "projects" should be reconsidered, he said. Luzyanin
repeatedly praised the "6 plus 3" proposal as useful and an
important contribution to solving the problems in
Afghanistan. He also pointed out that it was important to
allow Turkmenistan to get involved. Moreover, "6 plus 3"
would give Russia and the United States the chance to
cooperate on this issue, as well as other Central Asia
security issues.


7. (C) Vitaliy Naumkin, President of Russia's Center for
Strategic and Political Studies and a well-known foreign
policy expert, echoed the theme that Afghanistan
represented an opportunity for the U.S. and Russia to work
together on an issue of mutual interest, as had happened in
the past. Naumkin told the Ambassador that he lamented the
paucity of areas of current U.S.-Russia cooperation and
considered Afghanistan "too important to miss" in this
regard.


8. (SBU) Luzyanin said that NATO, the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO),and the Collective Security Treaty
Organization (CSTO) all have overlapping projects on
Afghanistan that are perceived as being in competition with
one another. He advised a deepening of cooperation between
these organizations, and added that a defeat of Coalition
forces and President Karzai would not help anyone.

Pakistan Comments on Afghanistan
--------------


9. (SBU) Jamshed Ayaz Khan, President of the Institute of
Regional Studies in Pakistan, objected to allegations that
Pakistan is playing a "double game" in the war on
terrorism. Pakistan has been a victim of terrorism for 25

TASHKENT 00000546 003 OF 006


years, and is committed to the war on terrorism, he said.
Khan recommended further coordination and sharing of
intelligence between Pakistani, Afghan, and allied
forces--particularly the United States. Pakistan does not
want instability in Afghanistan because this will spill
over into Pakistan, he said.

Kazakhstan Rep Outlines Foreign Policy Priorities
-------------- --------------


10. (SBU) Bulat Sultanov, Director of the Kazakhstan
Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of
Kazakhstan, said that it is important for Kazakhstan to
promote ties with the major powers active in the region.
Sultanov described Kazakhstan's foreign policy priorities:
first, participation in the SCO and CSTO. Second,
political-economic cooperation with Russia, China, and
Central Asia. Third, cooperation with the United States,
European Union, and NATO. Neutralizing conventional and
unconventional threats requires integration, he continued.
Sultanov recommended an economic union of the Central Asian
countries and the establishment of intergovernmental
agreements to remove tariffs and duties. Developing an
integrated economic space could help to counter the threats
of separatism, terrorism, and extremism, he said. He
advised the creation of simplified visa regimes and the
removal of barriers to the movement of capital, labor, and
goods, and open borders like the European Union's.
Sultanov then complained that regional cooperation with
Uzbekistan has been "problematic," and suggested that
Uzbekistan become a more active participant.

Turkey Aiming for Greater Role in Central Asia
--------------


11. (SBU) Suleyman Sensoy, Chairman of the Turkish Asian
Center for Strategic Studies in Turkey, focused almost
entirely on the European Union, which he said has become a
major player in the Central Asia region. Sensoy said that
Turkey wants to become one of the five "leading forces" in
Central Asia, given the many linkages between them. He
claimed that while others are focused on "power," Turkey is
focused on "empathy" and "reason." Turkey also hopes to
play a stronger role in the European Union's involvement in
the region.

India a Major Player in Afghan Reconstruction
--------------


12. (SBU) Professor Jyotsna Bakshi of the Indian Council
for Cultural Relations said that India and the countries of
Central Asia cannot be indifferent to the situation in
Afghanistan. It is important to win the hearts and minds
of Afghans to steer them away from militancy, she said.
Bakshi said that India has given 800 million dollars in aid
to Afghanistan, and that only the United States and Germany
have provided more aid. She described a series of projects
that India is pursuing, including the transfer of hundreds
of vehicles, three Airbus aircraft, and other equipment to
Afghanistan; the construction of the Zaranj-Delaram Road
linking India to Central Asia; and the construction of a
new Parliament building for Afghanistan.

"6 Plus 3?"
--------------


13. (SBU) Former Japanese Ambassador to Uzbekistan Akio
Kawato asked why Japan and India had not been included in

TASHKENT 00000546 004 OF 006


the "6 plus 3" proposal, despite the fact that both states
had made significant contributions to reconstruction in
Afghanistan. Deputy Director Toshev responded that
Uzbekistan had studied the previous "6 plus 2" proposal,
and asserted that any mechanism that does not include
Afghanistan's neighbors would fail. Uzbekistan had
discussed Japan's contributions, he said, and he would want
to invite Japan and India to participate if possible. The
issue would be taken into consideration, Toshev stated.


14. (SBU) Afghan Deputy National Security Advisor Mohammad
Homayoun Tandar asked what role Afghanistan would play in
"6 plus 3." Toshev responded that "6 plus 3" had not been
pulled out of thin air--it is based on "6 plus 2" with the
addition of NATO--and that there are not plans to invite
the Government of Afghanistan or any of the "warring
parties." Afghanistan could participate in "expert level
groups" instead, he suggested. "If Uzbekistan did not
propose '6 plus 3,' nothing would happen," he asserted.
Toshev repeatedly challenged Tandar to suggest an
alternative if he didn't like Uzbekistan's proposal.
Tandar said that he had not even been given a copy of the
"6 plus 3" proposal. (Note: He told us privately that he
was shocked to learn that a negotiating formula had
seriously been put forward without consulting the Afghan
government or including it as a participant. We share his
sentiment and the Ambassador floated it widely in his
discussions with conference participants.)

Afghanistan's Foreign Policy
--------------


15. (SBU) Tandar noted that today's initiative on regional
security should have been taken long ago, and that such
challenges cannot be overcome in isolation. He said that
Afghanistan has been a threat to the world only when other
countries have interfered in its affairs, and that
Afghanistan then became a breeding ground for extremism.
The international community's indifference toward
Afghanistan paved the way to 9/11, he said. A weak
Afghanistan is not in the region's or the world's
interests, he said.


16. (SBU) Afghanistan is interested in peaceful coexistence
with Central Asia, Tandar continued. Democracy and
stability in Afghanistan will lead to the same in Central
Asia, he said. Tandar said that Afghanistan can play a
pivotal role in the development of Central Asia, as it
occupies a strategic location between Central Asia, South
Asia, and the Middle East and can serve as an important
trade corridor. Afghanistan wants to connect Central Asia
to the rest of the world economically, Tandar asserted, and
the ring roads and highways under construction in
Afghanistan are a priority. Tandar also called for the
construction of additional border crossing points and
Customs facilities on the borders between Afghanistan and
Central Asia.

Japan Can Play an Important Role in the Region
-------------- -


17. (SBU) Former Japanese Ambassador Kawato, one of the few
participants attending in his formal foreign ministry
capacity, said that diplomacy and economic development are
vital in Central Asia, and Japan is well-suited to this.
In addition to its role in disarmament and reconciliation
(DDR),Japan has built telephone lines and modernized
airports, and its work on a railway to Afghanistan will

TASHKENT 00000546 005 OF 006


provide an exit to the Indian Ocean, he said. Japan's
contributions through the Asian Development Bank have
resulted in the construction of new highways. This kind of
work helps to mitigate conflict, Kawato said. "Japan has
no political ambition in Central Asia," Kawato declared,
but wants Central Asian independence and economic
development.

SCO and NATO Roles Examined
--------------


18. (SBU) Aleksey Vlasov, General Director of Russia's
Information-Analytical Center for Sociopolitical Studies in
Post-Soviet Countries, said that the SCO has become
increasingly significant. He recommended that the SCO
focus on security and economic/energy issues, such as the
Energy Club. The SCO should also be involved in
Afghanistan, he advised, particularly with regard to
humanitarian and economic assistance. "In the mid-term,
the SCO will expand," Vlasov claimed. Iran is on the
agenda, and in ten to fifteen years, the SCO could become a
world club, he said. Vlasov argued that the SCO should
bring in as many members as possible, and suggested the
development of an SCO-United States dialogue.


19. (SBU) NATO Liaison Officer for Central Asia and Turkey
Tugay Tuncer said that NATO's involvement in Central Asia
and the Caucasus has been on the rise. NATO recently
formed the position of Special Representative for Central
Asia and the Caucasus, and Robert Simmons now visits these
regions every two to three months. NATO also created the
position of NATO Central Asia and Turkey Liaison Officer.
"It is clear that NATO and Central Asia share interests,"
Tuncer said, particularly in counterterrorism,
counterproliferation, counterextremism, counternarcotics,
and energy security. He noted that NATO will discuss
Karimov's "6 plus 3" proposal in the coming days, and
welcomes Uzbekistan's active participation in Afghanistan.


20. (SBU) There was considerable discussion, prodded
largely by the Russians, on the prospects for cooperation
between NATO and CSTO. In response, Tuncer said that
cooperation with the CSTO is not a priority. "We have
bilateral relations with the SCO and CSTO countries
already," he noted. Tuncer said that the benefits of
NATO-CSTO cooperation were unclear, and that interaction
with the SCO--which includes a larger number of
states--would perhaps be more useful. He also noted that
there are problems with having NATO-CSTO interaction on
both sides. (This prompted some grousing from the Russians
and other CIS participants who wanted to see
institutionalized cooperation get off the ground.)


21. (SBU) Yaman Yeter, NATO Information Officer for Turkey,
Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, described some of
NATO's information policies for Central Asia. She noted
that NATO conducts the Eurasian Media Forum in Almaty
annually; a summer academy in Dushanbe; security seminars
in Bishkek; and has sponsored a UNODC workshop in Ashgabat.
She proposed using the planned destruction of melange fuel
in a NATO-Uzbekistan project as a backdrop for any
follow-up event to this conference.

Afghanistan Strenuously Objects to Proposed Press Release
-------------- --------------


22. (SBU) As the conference drew to a close, organizers
circulated copies of a draft press release. Afghanistan's

TASHKENT 00000546 006.2 OF 006


Deputy National Security Adviser Tandar took strong
exception to the release, proclaiming to the participants
that the Afghan delegation disagreed with some of the
points it made. "We do not agree with the statement that
the situation in Afghanistan is 'alarming,'" Tandar
stated. He also objected to a statement that not all
opportunities are being utilized in bringing peace to
Afghanistan, and called for a revised version (which never
materialized - no release was issued). Tandar said that
the Government of Afghanistan is legitimate and
democratically elected, and proposed that Afghanistan host
the next such conference in Herat, Mazar-e-Sharif or Kabul
to show the progress that has been made. This proposal was
well received.

Comment:
--------------


23. (C) The Uzbek proverb that if your neighbor has peace,
then you will have peace, rings true. Security and
stability in Afghanistan will be critical to ensuring
security and stability in the region, a necessary precursor
to further socieconomic development. This conference could
very well be the first in a series of similar conferences
that take place in Uzbekistan (or possibly in Afghanistan)
in the future. It surely underscores Tashkent's continuing
concerns about the security situation in Afghanistan and
the potential for "spillover" into Uzbekistan. The GOU
also appears to be using it in an attempt to gain
international support of President Karimov's "6 plus 3"
proposal--both by devoting significant attention to the
proposal during the conference and by running ringing
endorsements of the proposal from conference participants
in the state-run press afterwards. Fortunately, Afghan
Deputy National Security Advisor Tandar told the Ambassador
on May 2 that he had made headway with Uzbek academic
experts in talks following the conference on persuading
them of the need to include the Afghan government in any
regional discussion mechanisms.


24. (C) Within the past few months, Tashkent has
hosted--with our support--several major international
conferences on themes including regional environmental
problems, law enforcement and human rights, and regional
security. These events are being used by the
quasi-independent Uzbek think tanks sponsoring them to
introduce and test out new ideas that potentially push the
envelope on the GOU's thinking in general and President
Karimov's in particular. They also give us unparalleled
access, in this constrained authoritarian environment, to
influential Uzbek officials who are clearly open to reform
and new thinking. The small sums we have donated through
USAID and other vehicles to support these events is money
well spent.
NORLAND