UZBEKISTAN: KARAKALPAKSTAN'S COUNCIL OF MINISTERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L TASHKENT 001222

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON SOCI SENV PHUM UZ
SUBJECT: UZBEKISTAN: KARAKALPAKSTAN'S COUNCIL OF MINISTERS
ON POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND SOCIAL CONDITIONS

Classified By: Poloff Steven Prohaska for reasons 1.4 (b, d).


1. (C) Summary: On October 2, Deputy Chairman Abdijaliev of
Karakalpakstan's Council of Ministers discussed conditions in
Karakalpakstan--Uzbekistan's only autonomous republic--with
us in Nukus. The Deputy Chairman repeatedly asserted
Karakalpakstan's "sovereignty," citing a series of its own
institutions. Abdijaliev was particularly excited about the
prospects for economic development in Karakalpakstan in light
of newly-discovered oil and gas reserves uncovered by the
steadily receding Aral Sea, and noted joint efforts with
other countries to exploit these resources. Karakalpakstan's
government is trying to enhance the welfare of its people by
attracting additional foreign investment. He noted dramatic
improvements in salaries, health, and environmental
conditions. We suspect that many of Abdijaliev's statistics
should be taken with a grain of salt, but conditions in
Karakalpakstan do appear to be more dynamic now than one year
ago. Ambassador raised two human rights cases with
Abdijaliev in a subsequent visit on October 16. End summary.

How Karakalpakstan is Governed
--------------


2. (C) On October 2, Poloff, Deskoff, and Regional ESTH
Officer met in Nukus with new Deputy Chairman of the Council
of Ministers Karamatdin Idrisovich Abdijaliev, who discussed
political, social, and economic conditions in Karakalpakstan,
the only autonomous republic in Uzbekistan. Adbijaliev noted
repeatedly that Karakalpakstan is a "sovereign state" in
Uzbekistan, with its own Constitution, coat of arms,
Ministries, and anthem. Both Uzbekistan's and
Karakalpakstan's Constitutions apply in the autonomous
republic. (Abdijaliev faltered when asked to explain the
differences between these Constitutions, however, noting that
these were minor.) Branches of Uzbekistan's four political
parties operate in Karakalpakstan. Karakalpakstan's diverse
population is steadily increasing and now stands at 1.6
million, Abdijaliev continued (with 300,000 in Nukus),and
includes Karakalpaks, Uzbeks, Turkmen, Russians, Koreans,
Kazakhs, and others, but there are no interethnic problems.
Covering (amazingly) more than 37 percent of Uzbekistan's
overall territory, Karakalpakstan has two major cities--Nukus
and Takhiatash--and is divided into 14 districts.


3. (C) In contrast to the other provinces of Uzbekistan,
Karakalpakstan has an executive branch called the Council of
Ministers, which includes a Chairman, three Deputy Chairmen,
and various Ministries. The Chairman of this council also is
a member of Uzbekistan's Cabinet, and is elected by the
members of Karakalpakstan's own Parliament, with the approval
of President Karimov. Karakalpakstan's Parliament--which has
86 members drawn from regional branches of Uzbekistan's four
official political parties--also elects the Council
Chairman's deputies.


4. (C) Each of these cities and districts has its own hokim
(mayor),and the hokims of the districts are appointed by the
Chairman of Parliament with Karimov's approval. The Chairman
of Parliament then appoints the three deputies of each hokim
in each district, and these appointments require the consent
of the Council of Ministers. While all of the members of the
Council of Ministers are residents of Karakalpakstan,
Karakalpakstan's Parliament does include some deputies
("businessmen," Abdijaliev called them) from Tashkent.

Loss of the Aral Sea an Economic Gain?
--------------


5. (C) Abdijaliev excitedly described newly-discovered energy
reserves beneath land once covered by the Aral Sea, and said
that a consortium of companies from Russia (Gazprom and
Lukoil),China, Malaysia (Petronas),and South Korea is
already working in Karakalpakstan to extract energy.
Abdijaliev anticipated an "economic boom" from these
reserves, and noted that it was important for the republic to
prepare a new generation of specialists. Toward this end,
Karakalpakstan recently opened a new educational institution
focused on oil and gas and a branch of the Tashkent Chemical
Engineering Institute in Nukus.

Fulfilling the Five-Year Plan in Three Years!
--------------


6. (C) Abdijaliev claimed that Karakalpakstan's top priority
is enhancing the well-being of its people and seeing to their
needs. Karakalpakstan has developed targeted programs to
increase production, programs to enhance water management and
irrigation, and has plans to renovate all secondary schools
by the end of 2009. The republic is also hoping to increase
the contributions of small and medium businesses to
Karakalpakstan's GDP.


7. (C) Karakalpakstan currently has 46 joint ventures with
other countries, and is trying to attract additional foreign
investment to increase the number of jobs. In addition to
the countries mentioned above, Germany and Kazakhstan are
investing in Karakalpakstan, and most foreign investment has
gone into oil, gas, textiles, food processing, and
construction.


8. (C) The economic situation is stable in Karakalpakstan,
Abdijaliev asserted. Average monthly salaries increased to
250,000 soum (about 185 USD) this year, which is enough for
people to cover basic needs given the relatively inexpensive
prices in Karakalpakstan, he said. Karakalpakstan is hoping
to increase this figure to 500 USD/month by 2011. (Comment:
Even with possible economic gains from newly-discovered
energy reserves, we think that more than doubling average
incomes in Karakalpakstan in less than three years is a
dubious claim. End comment.) While Nukus has received
subsidies from Tashkent for social and economic projects,
these subsidies ("dotatsia") stopped in 2007, as Nukus is now
covering its own expenses.

Ambitious Construction Projects
--------------


9. (C) Karakalpakstan is pouring tens of billions of soum
into development projects. These include renovations of the
airport in Nukus, the construction of a brand-new hotel, and
numerous new bakeries. Abdijaliev said that the square in
front of Government of Karakalpakstan buildings is being
redone--a 1932 Leningrad Central Plan is being cast aside in
favor of a 2003 construction plan intended to make it look
like its counterpart in Tashkent. (Note: We saw the
construction firsthand from an office window--the area has
been sealed off with a metal fence. End note.)
Karakalpakstan recently opened a factory that produces
industrial products, and also has agreed with a South Korean
company to build a large new chemical plant starting in 2011.


Education in Karakalpakstan
--------------


10. (C) Karakalpak, Uzbek, and Russian are mandatory
languages in Karakalpakstan's schools, Abdijaliev said. Both
Karakalpak and Uzbek are the official languages of
Karakalpakstan, but officials continue to use Russian in
communications with foreigners. There has been a trend
toward English, however, and Karakalpakstan has a "Progress"
school which provides instruction in English, French, and
German. Abdijaliev remarked proudly that his own children
can speak English.

Health, Environmental, and Agricultural Issues
-------------- -


11. (C) Abdijaliev admitted that Karakalpakstan has a problem
with tuberculosis, but noted that the number of cases and
deaths from tuberculosis is declining. He claimed that the
average lifespan in Karakalpakstan is now 74, trailing the
average 77-year lifespan in the rest of Uzbekistan.
(Comment: We do not believe these figures, which are close to
average lifespans in the United States, are accurate. End
comment.) Health services including meals are free, and
hospitals serve the population in urban areas while health
centers exist in rural parts of Karakalpakstan.
Karakalpakstan has nine medical colleges total, three of
which are located in Nukus. Most members of the population
have ready access to safe drinking water and gas, and all
have electricity, he continued.


12. (C) Agriculture in Karakalpakstan focuses on wheat,
cotton, rice, fruit and vegetable production on about 100,000
hectares of land. Karakalpakstan harvests approximately
200,000 tons of cotton per year. Abdijaliev complained that
recent drought had forced Karakalpakstan to decrease its
irrigation of rice (a water-intensive crop),however. There
is a cycle every six to eight years, he continued.
Abdijaliev noted that Karakalpakstan experienced a drought in
2002 which was followed by a high-water year, and believed
the same would happen after the current drought.
Nevertheless, Karakalpakstan is experimenting both with crops
that require less water and with water-saving technologies on
land for fruits and vegetables.

Comment:
--------------


13. (C) Abdijaliev's assertions about Karakalpakstan's
autonomy are interesting, but it is clear that Tashkent plans
to retain a solid grip on the republic, as key appointments
in the provincial government are still subject to Karimov's
approval and serve at his pleasure. In addition to
agriculture-related revenue, the discovery of additional oil
and gas deposits in Karakalpakstan is another reason for
Tashkent to maintain control there. Uzbekistan may in fact
have an incentive to avoid saving its share of the Aral Sea,
as the sea's continued shrinking will probably facilitate
efforts to extract oil and gas.


14. (C) We are skeptical of many of Karakalpakstan's
optimistic forecasts and claims of dramatic advancements in
recent years--some of the statistics Abdijaliev rattled off
smack of Soviet-era propaganda. Nevertheless, the atmosphere
in this autonomous republic does appear to have changed since

Poloff's first visit there in November 2007. A new,
relatively energetic Deputy Chairman has replaced Khaytmurat
Abdurakhmanov--indeed, his office phone rang constantly over
the course of the meeting. Far more construction activity in
Nukus is apparent now relative to last year. And while the
Council insisted on sending a minder to follow Poloff
everywhere he went during his last visit, nothing of the sort
took place during this visit.


15. (C) The visit of Poloff, Deskoff, and Regional ESTH
Officer was followed up on October 16 by the Ambassador along
with a prominent private Amcit. Abdijaliev did not show any
particular Karakalpak "ownership" when it came to human
rights issues. The Ambassador raised the cases of convicted
journalist Salidjahon Abdurakhmanov and human rights activist
Akzam Turgunov, but AbdijalQv pleasantly refrained from any
comment. Nukus looked bustling compared to the vast expanses
of desert that make up the bulk of Karakalpakstan. The
Savitskiy Museum in Nukus, with its unique collection of
Russian avant-garde art, offers significant prospects for
U.S.-Uzbek cultural exchange, as do the many ancient ruins of
Bactrian-era forts that litter the landscape waiting to be
excavated. Signs of Karakalpak "separatism" are few and far
between, though the mayor of one small town made a point, on
his business card where it said "Republic of Uzbekistan," of
crossing out "Uzbekistan" and replacing it with
"Karakalpakstan."
NORLAND