ESTONIAN PRESIDENT ILVES EMPHASIZES NATO

C O N F I D E N T I A L TALLINN 000303

SIPDIS

FOR EUR/NB MIGUEL RODRIGUES

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2018
TAGS: PREL RU GG EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIAN PRESIDENT ILVES EMPHASIZES NATO
COLLECTIVE DEFENSE

Classified by: Ambassador S. Davis Phillips for reasons 1.4
(b) & (d)


1. (C) On September 2, Ambassador called on President
Toomas Hendrik Ilves to discuss the situation in Georgia.
Ambassador was accompanied by DCM and Pol/Econ Chief
(notetaker). Sven Jurgenson, Ilves? Foreign Policy Advisor
(and a former Ambassador to the United States) and Jana
Vanaveski, Head of the Foreign Policy Department also
participated in the meeting. Ilves opened the discussion
by asserting that NATO needs to get back to its core
issues. Russia's invasion "changes everything" he noted.
This requires us to think seriously about what NATO's main
mission is. We were caught up on the "peace dividend," but
now we have to start investing again in collective
security. The Ambassador asked Ilves his views on the
possibility of NATO bases in Estonia - a topic which has
been debated widely in the Estonian press. Ilves cited a
few areas where NATO support would be useful (pre-
positioning equipment, development of Estonia's Amari
airbase, investing in strategic infrastructure, putting
ships into Paldiski Port near Tallinn). However, he said, the real
issue is not basing. What NATO needs is a coherent
strategy to deal with a "belligerent, aggressive" Russia.


2. (C) Ilves contended that the conflict with Russia now is
fundamentally different than it was during the cold war.
Countries in Western Europe no longer feel the immediate
threat at their doorstep so they downplay the situation.
However, Georgia proved East Europeans fears about Russia
were not irrational. Now they want Europe to take a
tougher position, but they also want a U.S. presence.
Jurgenson emphasized this point, saying there are "things
which we cannot discuss effectively at NATO." Also, the
split within the EU means the best Europe can come up with
is what was decided September 1 in Brussels. We are at the
very early stages of a "new cold war" and the underlying
center of gravity can only be the United States, Jurgenson
added.


3. (C) Ilves also noted that the struggle with Russia is no
longer an ideological one. In practical terms, this means
siding with Russia doesn't raise questions about one's
loyalty. Pointing to former German Chancellor Schroeder
and former Finnish PM Lipponen's involvement with the
Nordstream Pipeline, Ilves asserted that officials are
clearly being "bought" by the Russians. It has also been
clear - since President Putin's speech at Munich - that
Russia is trying to position itself as a counterweight to
the United States, Ilves said. But who is going to align
themselves with Russia? Only "pariahs, sleazebags, or
rogue states" like Chavez, Castro and Lukashenko will
recognize South Ossetia.


4. (C) Ilves called NATO's decision not to offer MAP to
Georgia and Ukraine at the Bucharest Summit a key problem.
This decision was misread (or read correctly) by Russia and
it "emboldened them." Now, if Russia senses ambiguity
(words but no consequences),it will go even further than
it already has. While MAP is still an important step, NATO
needs to focus on its primary mission - collective defense
of its allies. Ilves also noted, with interest, an August
26 Washington Post article which advocated using the
terrorist finance legal framework against the Russians.
Money and travel privileges are consequences the Russians
will understand, Jurgenson added. Suspension of Russian
membership in the Council of Europe (for invading a
sovereign country),suspending the EU-Russia visa
facilitation agreement (for Russian noncompliance with its
provisions) and supporting economic and political
development in Ukraine and Georgia could also be important
measures.


5. (C) Comment: Ilves has taken a headline role in beating
the drum on Georgia for Estonia. However, he is clearly
frustrated by his own lack of real executive authority and
by Europe's lack of unity. Ilves did not offer specific
proposals on next steps. Instead, he emphasized NATO's
need to focus on collective security and speculated it will
take "many months and years" for the west to figure out how
to handle the new situation with Russia. End comment.

Phillips