Estonian FM Paet Visit to Baghdad

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TALLINN 000292

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/12/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MOPS IZ EN
SUBJECT: Estonian FM Paet Visit to Baghdad

Classified by: DCM Karen Decker for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)

REF: (A) TALLINN 228


1. (C) SUMMARY: Ambassador Crocker and Iraqi officials
told Estonian Foreign Minister Paet August 12 that Status
of Forces Agreement (SOFA) negotiations are ongoing and
there is no guarantee they will conclude before Estonia's
legislative mandate for operations in Iraq expires in
December. Without a SOFA agreement or a new UN Security
Council resolution on Iraq in place this fall, Estonian
politicians will have to make a political decision on what
the basis for Estonia's continued operations in Iraq will
be. The GOE did not get any real public opinion ?bump?
from the Foreign Minister's trip as local media coverage of
Paet?s trip to Baghdad was completely overshadowed by
events in Georgia. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Foreign Minister Urmas Paet visited Iraq August 11-
12 to discuss Estonia?s continued participation in
Operation Iraq Freedom (OIF). Paet was accompanied by
Members of Parliament Sven Mikser (coalition) and Kadri
Simson (opposition),advisors from the MFA and
representatives of the Estonian media. On the first day of
the trip, Paet visited with Estonian troops in Taji (25km
northeast of Baghdad?s center) and met Gen Lefebvre, Deputy
Commanding General, MNC-I. The second day, in Baghdad,
Paet met with Deputy PM Barham Salih, Foreign Minister
Hoshyar Zebari and U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker.


3. (C) Arti Hilpus, MFA Director for Security Policy (who
accompanied FM Paet on the trip) told Pol/Econ Chief Aug 18
the Minister had two primary objectives for his trip:

-- To find out the status of U.S.- Iraq negotiations on a
Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) and determine whether the
GOI will allow third countries to opt into the SOFA;

-- To get a clear and public indication from the GOI that
it wants Estonia to continue participating in coalition
operations in Iraq in 2009.


4. (C) While the Foreign Minister's trip created a
"positive backdrop" for domestic discussions on Estonia's
continued participation in OIF, Hilpus said, it did not
give the GOE everything it had hoped for. The GOE still
needs to determine what the legal framework will be for
continued deployment. (Note: The current mandate, which
is predicated on UNSCR 1151, will expire at the end of
December. (See Ref A) The MFA and MOD have to prepare new
legislation this fall for Cabinet and then parliamentary
approval. End Note.)


5. (C) During his meeting with FM Zebari, FM Paet invited
his counterpart to visit Estonia in the fall. Such a
visit, Hilpus noted, could include a speech by Zebari to
the Estonian parliament. This would help the GOE make its
case for extension to both politicians and the Estonian
public. Paet also asked Zebari if the GOI would send a
written request for Estonian troops to stay in Iraq. FM
Zebari responded positively to both requests - although he
did not commit to any specific details. Zebari said a
visit to Tallinn would be "a good opportunity to strengthen
bilateral relations." He also told Paet he believed the
GOI would be willing to send a letter requesting continued
Estonian support. "We are ready to do what is necessary"
Zebari said, "you have helped us very much."


6. (C) Hilpus expressed appreciation for Ambassador
Crocker's candid briefing on the status of SOFA
negotiations. Ambassador Crocker told Paet that he could
not say with certainty that there will be an agreement in
place by December. USG-GOI SOFA talks are "ongoing" and
"intensive" and the two sides won't have an agreement until
"everything is agreed." The Estonian side was pleased to
hear that the version of the agreement currently under
discussion includes a clause that would allow the SOFA to
be extended to third countries like Estonia.


7. (C) The message from the GOI on the SOFA was similar.
FM Zebari told Paet that the USG and GOI are "very close"
and the agreement is "almost ready." However, Zebari
noted, the Iraqi Parliament will also have to approve the
SOFA and it is on vacation until the beginning of

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September. If there is a problem completing the SOFA this
year, Zebari said, then Iraq will consider requesting
another UN Security Council resolution. Zebari also told
Paet that the GOI has not decided if it will agree to allow
third countries to opt into the U.S.-Iraq SOFA or if it
will insist each country negotiate its own bilateral
agreement. According to Hilpus, if the GOI insists on
individual SOFAs it will be impossible for Estonia and Iraq
to finalize an agreement before Estonia's mandate in Iraq
expires.


8. (C) Looking ahead at the legislative process, Hilpus
said the undetermined status of the SOFA agreement is going
to make it difficult for the GOE to draft its own
legislation this fall. The Foreign Minister has been
clear, Hilpus noted, that Estonia's mission in Iraq should
continue as long as it is necessary. However, without an
agreed SOFA or a UNSC Resolution in place, the GOE does not
have a legal basis for extension of its Iraq mission.
There will have to be a "political decision" by the
Ministers on how to proceed, Hilpus said.


9. (C) Iraqi officials also conveyed their position on
timelines for withdrawal of coalition forces. According to
Hilpus, GOI officials made clear they want to take over as
much responsibility for Iraqi security as possible. Iraq
wants to demonstrate its sovereign status, Hilpus said.
GOI interlocutors expressed their interest in reducing the
"general numbers of the coalition," but also acknowledged
coalition assistance to Iraq is still necessary. FM Zebari
explained the United States and Iraq are talking about
"time horizons" for withdrawal, but also noted that the
security condition in Iraq should be the decisive factor in
determining when withdrawal will occur. Iraq does not want
to see a "security vacuum."


10. (C) Pol/econ Chief spoke separately with Center Party
MP Kadri Simson, one of two MPs that had traveled with the
Foreign Minister. (Note: Center Party is the largest
opposition party in Estonia and Simson is the Deputy Chair
of the Parliament's Defense Committee. End Note.)
According to Simson, it was clear that FM Zebari does not
believe the Iraqi Parliament will ratify the SOFA and that
the GOI thinks it will be easier to get a new UNSCR than to
reach agreement domestically on the SOFA. Simson also
highlighted the importance of USG and GOI discussions on a
withdrawal horizon for coalition forces and noted that
"most EU countries have left or are leaving" Iraq. The GOE
needs to provide dates when Estonian soldiers will leave,
Simson said. Looking ahead to the fall, Simson confirmed
that Center Party has already decided it will vote against
extending the Iraq mission when it comes to a vote in the
Parliament. However, Simson noted, the vote is "symbolic"
because the Government coalition has the votes it needs to
extend the Iraq mandate.


11. (C) FM Paet was accompanied throughout his trip by a
journalist and a cameraman from Estonian TV as well as
journalists from Estonia's two largest circulation
Estonian-language newspapers. In addition, the MFA
released several press released during and after the trip.
However, there was little coverage of the trip as the
crisis in Georgia has dominated Estonian news since August
7th.


12. (C) Comment: Post is grateful to Embassy Baghdad
colleagues for facilitating this visit, which constitutes
an important step toward extending the Estonian mandate for
the Iraq mission. In the aftermath of the Foreign
Minister's trip, it is all the more imperative that we
continue to work closely with the Government of Estonia on
this issue. We therefore reiterate reftel request that
Washington send State and Pentagon operational experts to
Tallinn as soon as possible for detailed technical
discussions on the SOFA. Visits by senior-level officials
or members of Congress would also help the GOE's efforts to
work Parliament and public opinion on the need for
continued Estonian participation in Iraq. End Comment.

PHILLIPS