Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08TALLINN102
2008-03-11 11:50:00
SECRET
Embassy Tallinn
Cable title:
ESTONIA: SURVEY OF IRAQ DEPLOYMENT REQUIREMENTS
how-toVZCZCXRO1348 RR RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHFL RUEHIHL RUEHKUK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV DE RUEHTL #0102/01 0711150 ZNY SSSSS ZZH R 111150Z MAR 08 FM AMEMBASSY TALLINN TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0549 INFO RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0349 RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TALLINN 000102
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR EUR/NB KATHERINE GARRY
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2018
TAGS: MARR MOPS PREL IZ EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA: SURVEY OF IRAQ DEPLOYMENT REQUIREMENTS
Classified by: ADCM Jessica Adkins for reasons 1.4 (b) &
(d)
REF: STATE 2310
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TALLINN 000102
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR EUR/NB KATHERINE GARRY
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2018
TAGS: MARR MOPS PREL IZ EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA: SURVEY OF IRAQ DEPLOYMENT REQUIREMENTS
Classified by: ADCM Jessica Adkins for reasons 1.4 (b) &
(d)
REF: STATE 2310
1. (S) In response to reftel, post submits the following
responses to the questions posed:
A. (S) WHAT ARE UROPEAN LEADERS' LONG-TERM (I.E., BEYOND
2008) PLANS FOR THEIR FORCES AND OTHER EFFORTS IN IRAQ?
(S) While the Government of Estonia (GOE) has maintained
its strong political commitment to partnership in Iraq, it
has sent out mixed signals on plans to maintain current
deployment levels past 2008. Prime Minister Andrus Ansip
and Foreign Minister Urmas Paet consistently assert that
Estonian troops will stay in Iraq for as long as they are
needed. FM Paet told the Ambassador on February 25 that
while domestic debate over Iraq is 'tough, of course
Estonia will stay.' The FM added that it is just a
question of what form the Estonian presence will take (e.g.
current deployment, as assistance provider.)
(S) Defense Minister Jaak Aaviksoo has publicly supported
the Iraq mission, but has also stated that Estonia's
presence in Iraq is not an open-ended commitment and that
Estonia has no intention of extending the mission beyond
2008. However, in a recent article appearing in the
Estonian press, the DefMin said that ties between domestic
security and development in the Middle-East necessitate
that we continue to participate in working out solutions
there.
(S) MOD interlocutors have told us that even if the GOE
withdraws combat troops from Iraq, the GOE may seek to
remain engaged in Iraq by committing more staff officers in
support of the NATO training mission.
B. (S) WHICH, IF ANY, EUROPEAN PARTNERS PLAN ON HAVING
FORCES IN IRAQ DURING 2008 AND BEYOND?
(S) See response to question 1A and 1C, above and below.
C. (S) WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTIVE FORCE SIZES, AND WHAT ROLE
DO THEY PLAN TO PLAY IN-COUNTRY, TO INCLUDE COMBAT
OPERATIONS, BASE PROTECTION, TRAINING, AND TECHNICAL
ASSISTANCE?
(S) (Response to B and C jointly): Estonia can be expected
to maintain military forces in Iraq through 2008.
Currently, the 34-member Infantry Platoon, designated
ESTPLA -16 for this deployment, is the tenth, six-month
rotation of Estonian troops serving in Iraq. ESTPLA-16 is
assigned to the 1st Squadron, 7th Calvary Regiment and is
conducting counterinsurgency operations in the Saba Al Boor
area.
D. (S) WHAT NON-MILITARY CONTRIBUTIONS, SUCH AS ECONOMIC
ASSISTANCE, DO THE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES PLAN TO UNDERTAKE IN
2008 AND BEYOND?
(S) Estonia is unlikely to make any substantial economic
contributions to Iraq this year. Many Estonia political
leaders have repeatedly stated that current foreign
assistance priorities are Afghanistan, Georgia, Ukraine and
Moldova. Additionally, Estonia recently committed USD 1
million in assistance to the Palestinian Authority.
E. (S) PLEASE PROVIDE ANY INSIGHT INTO WHICH COUNTRIES
MIGHT BE RESPONSIVE TO INCENTIVES FROM THE U.S. WHAT FORMS
MIGHT THESE INCENTIVES TAKE?
(S) The small size of the Estonian military and a looming
recruitment crisis (driven by rising private sector wages
and salaries) mean that sustaining the current level of
military forces in Iraq will be very difficult, regardless
of what incentives might be offered.
F. (S) WHAT ARE THE LEGAL AUTHORITIES THAT THESE COUNTRIES
NEED IN ORDER TO CONTINUE TO OPERATE IN IRAQ?
(S) All previous decisions made by the GOE on Iraq
deployment have been drafted by the cabinet and required
parliamentary approval. The GOE and Estonian Parliament
have consistently linked Estonia's ongoing participation in
TALLINN 00000102 002 OF 003
Iraq to renewal of UNSC authorization. The linkage is
specifically cited in the Government's coalition agreement.
The GOE has said it does not believe it can justify
participation in Iraq politically without an UNSCR.
G. (S) HOW MIGHT DOMESTIC ELECTIONS HELD BY SOME OF THE
EUROPEAN PARTNERS IN 2008 AFFECT THEIR CONTRIBUTIONS IN
IRAQ?
(S) The Estonian public does not strongly support the Iraq
war. Parliamentary elections, which are held every 4
years, were last held in March 2007. The next election
will be local elections and elections for the European
Parliament in 2009. It is likely that politicians will not
want their stance on involvement in Iraq (absent a UNSCR)
to become a central campaign topic.
H. (S) ARE ANY EUROPEAN COUNTRIES LOOKING FOR WAYS TO
BECOME MORE INVOLVED ON IRAQ' IF SO, WHAT WAYS ARE THEY
CONSIDERING AND WHY? IF NOT, WHY?
(S) See paragraph A.
I. (S) WHAT DO EUROPEAN LEADERS VIEW AS THEIR INTERESTS AT
STAKE IN IRAQ?
(S) The Estonian military places an extremely high value on
the experience its soldiers are gaining in Iraq. Unlike
the other missions in which Estonians participate, the
mission in Iraq affords them the opportunity to work
shoulder-to-shoulder with American troops. Even though the
GOE has identified Afghanistan as its priority mission,
some senior members of the Estonian military are worried
that after Iraq, there will not be any opportunities to
work as closely with U.S. forces. This sentiment would
likely be taken into account if the GOE is faced with a
decision on continuing a military presence in Iraq after
2008.
J. (S) WHAT INVESTMENT OR CONTRACT OPPORTUNITIES ARE
EUROPEAN LEADERS LOOKING FOR IN IRAQ?
(S) No information available at this time.
K. (S) WHAT DO EUROPEAN LEADERS VIEW AS CONSTRAINTS TO
THEIR GREATER INVOLVEMENT IN IRAQ?
(S) The GOE currently has almost about 10 percent of its
land forces deployed in international operations (including
Iraq, Afghanistan, Kosovo, Bosnia and Lebanon.) Starting
in January 2008, Estonian will provide 55 troops to the EU
Nordic Battle Group. Estonia has also committed to provide
250 soldiers to support the NATO Response Force (NRF-14) in
2010. Absent significant structural changes within the
Estonian Defense Forces, it is highly unlikely that the GOE
will have enough soldiers to staff all of these
commitments. If forced to make a decision on which
mission from which to withdraw, it is post's opinion that
Iraq would be the first mission the GOE would look to draw
down. Estonian Defense Forces interlocutors have argued
that, in the strictly tactical sense, pulling a platoon out
of Iraq would have less of a negative impact then pulling a
company out of combat operations in Afghanistan.
L. (S) HOW DO THE EUROPEANS VIEW THE SECURITY SITUATION IN
IRAQ' DO THEY BELIEVE IT IS GETTING BETTER, WORSE, OR
STAYING THE SAME' IF BETTER, HOW LONG DO THEY BELIEVE THE
IMPROVED SITUATION WILL LAST?
(S) Politicians have taken notice of improvements in the
last few months since the surge began. In his address to
the Parliament February 21 on Estonian foreign policy
priorities, FM Paet said the increase in U.S. troops along
with serious U.S. diplomatic efforts has made 'noteworthy
progress' in Iraq.
M. (S) HOW MIGHT EUROPEAN THREAT ASSESSMENT AFFECT
CALCULATIONS ABOUT GREATER ENGAGEMENT?
(S) Concerns over troop shortages and the inability to
fulfill other military commitments are more important
elements than threat assessments in terms of Estonia's
calculations concerning greater engagement.
N. (S) DO THE CURRENT EUROPEAN PARTNERS VIEW A BETTER
TALLINN 00000102 003 OF 003
SECURITY SITUATION AS A REASON TO PULL OUT OF IRAQ?
(S) Estonian political leaders have made no comments
indicating that they view an improved security situation as
a reason to pull out of Iraq.
O. (S) PLEASE PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO WHAT WILL BE THE FUTURE
LEVELS OF ECONOMIC/HUMANITARIAN AID FROM EUROPEAN CAPITALS
TO IRAQ? WILL IT BE INCREASING, DECREASING, OR STAYING
CONSTANT?
(S) No information available at this time.
P. (S) WHAT UPCOMING EUROPEAN MEETINGS INDICATE POSSIBLE
INCREASED INVOLVEMENT IN IRAQ?
(S) No information available at this time.
Q. (S) WHAT ARE EUROPEAN GOVERNMENT REACTIONS TO CURRENT
PUBLIC SENTIMENTS REGARDING IRAQ?
(S) The Estonian public does not strongly support Estonian
participation in Iraq. The Center Party, Estonia's largest
opposition party, has tried to gain political traction by
opposing the Iraq mission ' but was unable to block
approval of a one year extension of Estonia's mandate in
December 2007. However, MFA and MOD contacts have
suggested that it will be a much tougher battle to gain
enough votes to renew the mandate in 2009, even with an
UNSCR.
R. (S) ARE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES LOOKING FOR A COHESIVE
EUROPEAN IRAQ POLICY OR IS IRAQ A BILATERAL ISSUE SUBJECT
TO INTERNAL PRIORITIES?
(S) Estonia regards Iraq primarily as a bilateral issue,
but it is sensitive to the European perspective. Even
though Estonia relishes the opportunity to work side by
side with American troops that their participation in Iraq
affords them, government officials repeatedly state that
they will not allow Estonia to become the only partner to
remain in Iraq.
PHILLIPS
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR EUR/NB KATHERINE GARRY
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2018
TAGS: MARR MOPS PREL IZ EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA: SURVEY OF IRAQ DEPLOYMENT REQUIREMENTS
Classified by: ADCM Jessica Adkins for reasons 1.4 (b) &
(d)
REF: STATE 2310
1. (S) In response to reftel, post submits the following
responses to the questions posed:
A. (S) WHAT ARE UROPEAN LEADERS' LONG-TERM (I.E., BEYOND
2008) PLANS FOR THEIR FORCES AND OTHER EFFORTS IN IRAQ?
(S) While the Government of Estonia (GOE) has maintained
its strong political commitment to partnership in Iraq, it
has sent out mixed signals on plans to maintain current
deployment levels past 2008. Prime Minister Andrus Ansip
and Foreign Minister Urmas Paet consistently assert that
Estonian troops will stay in Iraq for as long as they are
needed. FM Paet told the Ambassador on February 25 that
while domestic debate over Iraq is 'tough, of course
Estonia will stay.' The FM added that it is just a
question of what form the Estonian presence will take (e.g.
current deployment, as assistance provider.)
(S) Defense Minister Jaak Aaviksoo has publicly supported
the Iraq mission, but has also stated that Estonia's
presence in Iraq is not an open-ended commitment and that
Estonia has no intention of extending the mission beyond
2008. However, in a recent article appearing in the
Estonian press, the DefMin said that ties between domestic
security and development in the Middle-East necessitate
that we continue to participate in working out solutions
there.
(S) MOD interlocutors have told us that even if the GOE
withdraws combat troops from Iraq, the GOE may seek to
remain engaged in Iraq by committing more staff officers in
support of the NATO training mission.
B. (S) WHICH, IF ANY, EUROPEAN PARTNERS PLAN ON HAVING
FORCES IN IRAQ DURING 2008 AND BEYOND?
(S) See response to question 1A and 1C, above and below.
C. (S) WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTIVE FORCE SIZES, AND WHAT ROLE
DO THEY PLAN TO PLAY IN-COUNTRY, TO INCLUDE COMBAT
OPERATIONS, BASE PROTECTION, TRAINING, AND TECHNICAL
ASSISTANCE?
(S) (Response to B and C jointly): Estonia can be expected
to maintain military forces in Iraq through 2008.
Currently, the 34-member Infantry Platoon, designated
ESTPLA -16 for this deployment, is the tenth, six-month
rotation of Estonian troops serving in Iraq. ESTPLA-16 is
assigned to the 1st Squadron, 7th Calvary Regiment and is
conducting counterinsurgency operations in the Saba Al Boor
area.
D. (S) WHAT NON-MILITARY CONTRIBUTIONS, SUCH AS ECONOMIC
ASSISTANCE, DO THE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES PLAN TO UNDERTAKE IN
2008 AND BEYOND?
(S) Estonia is unlikely to make any substantial economic
contributions to Iraq this year. Many Estonia political
leaders have repeatedly stated that current foreign
assistance priorities are Afghanistan, Georgia, Ukraine and
Moldova. Additionally, Estonia recently committed USD 1
million in assistance to the Palestinian Authority.
E. (S) PLEASE PROVIDE ANY INSIGHT INTO WHICH COUNTRIES
MIGHT BE RESPONSIVE TO INCENTIVES FROM THE U.S. WHAT FORMS
MIGHT THESE INCENTIVES TAKE?
(S) The small size of the Estonian military and a looming
recruitment crisis (driven by rising private sector wages
and salaries) mean that sustaining the current level of
military forces in Iraq will be very difficult, regardless
of what incentives might be offered.
F. (S) WHAT ARE THE LEGAL AUTHORITIES THAT THESE COUNTRIES
NEED IN ORDER TO CONTINUE TO OPERATE IN IRAQ?
(S) All previous decisions made by the GOE on Iraq
deployment have been drafted by the cabinet and required
parliamentary approval. The GOE and Estonian Parliament
have consistently linked Estonia's ongoing participation in
TALLINN 00000102 002 OF 003
Iraq to renewal of UNSC authorization. The linkage is
specifically cited in the Government's coalition agreement.
The GOE has said it does not believe it can justify
participation in Iraq politically without an UNSCR.
G. (S) HOW MIGHT DOMESTIC ELECTIONS HELD BY SOME OF THE
EUROPEAN PARTNERS IN 2008 AFFECT THEIR CONTRIBUTIONS IN
IRAQ?
(S) The Estonian public does not strongly support the Iraq
war. Parliamentary elections, which are held every 4
years, were last held in March 2007. The next election
will be local elections and elections for the European
Parliament in 2009. It is likely that politicians will not
want their stance on involvement in Iraq (absent a UNSCR)
to become a central campaign topic.
H. (S) ARE ANY EUROPEAN COUNTRIES LOOKING FOR WAYS TO
BECOME MORE INVOLVED ON IRAQ' IF SO, WHAT WAYS ARE THEY
CONSIDERING AND WHY? IF NOT, WHY?
(S) See paragraph A.
I. (S) WHAT DO EUROPEAN LEADERS VIEW AS THEIR INTERESTS AT
STAKE IN IRAQ?
(S) The Estonian military places an extremely high value on
the experience its soldiers are gaining in Iraq. Unlike
the other missions in which Estonians participate, the
mission in Iraq affords them the opportunity to work
shoulder-to-shoulder with American troops. Even though the
GOE has identified Afghanistan as its priority mission,
some senior members of the Estonian military are worried
that after Iraq, there will not be any opportunities to
work as closely with U.S. forces. This sentiment would
likely be taken into account if the GOE is faced with a
decision on continuing a military presence in Iraq after
2008.
J. (S) WHAT INVESTMENT OR CONTRACT OPPORTUNITIES ARE
EUROPEAN LEADERS LOOKING FOR IN IRAQ?
(S) No information available at this time.
K. (S) WHAT DO EUROPEAN LEADERS VIEW AS CONSTRAINTS TO
THEIR GREATER INVOLVEMENT IN IRAQ?
(S) The GOE currently has almost about 10 percent of its
land forces deployed in international operations (including
Iraq, Afghanistan, Kosovo, Bosnia and Lebanon.) Starting
in January 2008, Estonian will provide 55 troops to the EU
Nordic Battle Group. Estonia has also committed to provide
250 soldiers to support the NATO Response Force (NRF-14) in
2010. Absent significant structural changes within the
Estonian Defense Forces, it is highly unlikely that the GOE
will have enough soldiers to staff all of these
commitments. If forced to make a decision on which
mission from which to withdraw, it is post's opinion that
Iraq would be the first mission the GOE would look to draw
down. Estonian Defense Forces interlocutors have argued
that, in the strictly tactical sense, pulling a platoon out
of Iraq would have less of a negative impact then pulling a
company out of combat operations in Afghanistan.
L. (S) HOW DO THE EUROPEANS VIEW THE SECURITY SITUATION IN
IRAQ' DO THEY BELIEVE IT IS GETTING BETTER, WORSE, OR
STAYING THE SAME' IF BETTER, HOW LONG DO THEY BELIEVE THE
IMPROVED SITUATION WILL LAST?
(S) Politicians have taken notice of improvements in the
last few months since the surge began. In his address to
the Parliament February 21 on Estonian foreign policy
priorities, FM Paet said the increase in U.S. troops along
with serious U.S. diplomatic efforts has made 'noteworthy
progress' in Iraq.
M. (S) HOW MIGHT EUROPEAN THREAT ASSESSMENT AFFECT
CALCULATIONS ABOUT GREATER ENGAGEMENT?
(S) Concerns over troop shortages and the inability to
fulfill other military commitments are more important
elements than threat assessments in terms of Estonia's
calculations concerning greater engagement.
N. (S) DO THE CURRENT EUROPEAN PARTNERS VIEW A BETTER
TALLINN 00000102 003 OF 003
SECURITY SITUATION AS A REASON TO PULL OUT OF IRAQ?
(S) Estonian political leaders have made no comments
indicating that they view an improved security situation as
a reason to pull out of Iraq.
O. (S) PLEASE PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO WHAT WILL BE THE FUTURE
LEVELS OF ECONOMIC/HUMANITARIAN AID FROM EUROPEAN CAPITALS
TO IRAQ? WILL IT BE INCREASING, DECREASING, OR STAYING
CONSTANT?
(S) No information available at this time.
P. (S) WHAT UPCOMING EUROPEAN MEETINGS INDICATE POSSIBLE
INCREASED INVOLVEMENT IN IRAQ?
(S) No information available at this time.
Q. (S) WHAT ARE EUROPEAN GOVERNMENT REACTIONS TO CURRENT
PUBLIC SENTIMENTS REGARDING IRAQ?
(S) The Estonian public does not strongly support Estonian
participation in Iraq. The Center Party, Estonia's largest
opposition party, has tried to gain political traction by
opposing the Iraq mission ' but was unable to block
approval of a one year extension of Estonia's mandate in
December 2007. However, MFA and MOD contacts have
suggested that it will be a much tougher battle to gain
enough votes to renew the mandate in 2009, even with an
UNSCR.
R. (S) ARE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES LOOKING FOR A COHESIVE
EUROPEAN IRAQ POLICY OR IS IRAQ A BILATERAL ISSUE SUBJECT
TO INTERNAL PRIORITIES?
(S) Estonia regards Iraq primarily as a bilateral issue,
but it is sensitive to the European perspective. Even
though Estonia relishes the opportunity to work side by
side with American troops that their participation in Iraq
affords them, government officials repeatedly state that
they will not allow Estonia to become the only partner to
remain in Iraq.
PHILLIPS