MALAWI TO SWITCH RECOGNITION FROM TAIPEI TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000017

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/04/2018
TAGS: PREL MI TW
SUBJECT: MALAWI TO SWITCH RECOGNITION FROM TAIPEI TO
BEIJING?


Classified By: AIT Deputy Director Robert S. Wang,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Taiwan's effort to prevent the loss of
diplomatic recognition by Malawi is running into difficulty
as the Malawi government on January 4 declined a request by
Foreign Minister James Huang to meet with the president and
foreign minister. Huang left Taipei for Malawi on January 2
hoping to woo back the Malawi government after reportedly
learning that the Malawians had decided to abandon their
41-year relationship with Taipei for Beijing. The Malawian
rebuff forced Huang to divert to Swaziland, where he will
likely be seeking to shore up relations with Taipei's
remaining allies in the region. The loss of Malawi, when and
if it finally comes, will be a big blow to Taiwan's formal
presence in Africa, reducing the number of countries on the
continent that recognize Taiwan to just four (Burkina Faso,
Sao Tome, Swaziland, and Gambia). Nonetheless, Taiwan
foreign policy analysts do not expect a "domino effect" to
materialize in the immediate future. End summary.

Malawi Choosing Beijing over Taipei?
--------------


2. (C) According to Taiwan press reports, Malawi has signed
a "secret" agreement with Beijing to switch diplomatic
recognition from Taiwan to the PRC after being offered a
large aid deal that some claimed was as large as USD 6
billion. Taiwan FM James Huang departed for Malawi on
January 2 in an effort to salvage formal ties, but according
to a Taiwan MOFA spokesperson, the Foreign Minister had to
scrap his trip on January 4 after Malawi government officials
said their President and Foreign Minister were unavailable.
(Note: FM Huang had told the Director in a meeting on
December 31 that the "unavailability" of the Malawi President
would be a clear signal that Malawi had made its decision to
switch. He also anticipated the switch, if it occurs, to be
announced after the LY election on January 12.) After the
losses of Senegal in 2005 and Chad in 2006, losing Malawi
would leave Taiwan with only four diplomatic partners in
Africa (Swaziland, Burkina Faso, Gambia, Sao Tome) and 23
worldwide (down from 29 when President Chen Shui-bian took
office in 2000).


3. (C) Malawi Ambassador to Taiwan Thengo Maloya on January
4 told AIT that his foreign ministry has not provided him
with any information about Malawi switching ties from Taiwan
to China or of Beijing signing any deal with Lilongwe.
Ambassador Maloya said MOFA "speculation" stemmed from the
visit of Malawi's ministers to Beijing for what he described
as a "UN health-related meeting."


4. (C) Ambassador Maloya said Taiwan has greatly helped
Malawi, proving funds to construct a USD 10-18 million
parliament building, granting USD 15 million for a road
project, constructing a 300-bed hospital, sending a technical
mission to Malawi, establishing a skill training center in
Malawi, and funding scholarships for Malawi students to study
in Taiwan (there are currently 29). The Ambassador stressed,
however, that Malawi needs to continue to develop its
resources, a priority for President Bingu Wa Mutharika since
he was elected in 2004. The Ambassador seemed to be implying
that Beijing could prove an attractive partner to his
government.

Implications for Taiwan: No Domino Effect, For Now
-------------- --------------


5. (C) National Chengchi University Professor Yen Chen-shen
told AIT that Malawi's switch, if and when it finally comes,
would hurt Taipei because Taiwan has had diplomatic ties with
Malawi for over forty years and there are no good prospects
for getting other countries in Africa to recognize Taiwan.
It is also tragic, he said, because unlike Swaziland, Malawi

TAIPEI 00000017 002 OF 002


is democratic, not internationally isolated, and has a fairly
large population (about 12 million people). Professor Yen
thinks Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian could have done more
to keep Taiwan from losing Malawi, for example by
commemorating the fortieth anniversary of bilateral ties in

2006. Chen deserves to be praised for making frequent trips
to Africa, Professor Yen said, but also to be criticized for
using these trips only as a background for his domestic
political agenda. Professor Yen thinks the administration
should have at least created a dossier of projects Taiwan has
supported in Malawi or organized a forum for retired
diplomats to highlight Taiwan's contributions to Malawi.


6. (C) Malawi's switching of diplomatic ties from Taiwan to
China would not have a "domino effect" in Africa or anywhere
elsewhere, predicted Professor Yen, but in the longer run,
other countries are likely to make the same switch. Some
have argued that losing Malawi would leave Swaziland
"vulnerable" as Taiwan's only diplomatic partner in Southern
Africa. Professor Yen said, however, that Swaziland is
Taiwan's strongest ally in Africa because it is "small, poor,
and stable," does not have mineral resources, and has
recognized Taiwan for nearly forty years. Professor Yen also
does not think that any of the other three African countries
that recognize Taiwan--Burkina Faso, Gambia, Sao Tome--will
switch diplomatic ties anytime soon.


7. (C) After Malawi, the African country most likely to
derecognize Taiwan is Sao Tome. Professor Yen explained that
the country's potential oil reserves, a possible change in
government, and the relatively newness of diplomatic ties
with Taipei all make Sao Tome vulnerable. The discovery of
oil, in particular, goes well with the Chinese demand for oil
and China's willingness to help extract it. Sao Tome has
only recognized Taiwan since 1997 and another change in
government, which Professor Yen thinks is possible, could tip
the scales in Beijing's favor. Likewise, Gambia might also
have oil and consequently an incentive to work with Beijing.
Burkina Faso does not have oil, but Professor Yen says it
might switch because its president, who is considered a "big
man" in Africa after staying in office over twenty years, has
become increasingly active internationally.


8. (C) In the longer term, Taiwan is likely to lose
diplomatic recognition from more countries, Professor Yen
said, because besides advice on economic development and
limited assistance, Taipei cannot outspend China over the
long-term. Professor Yen asserted that PRC entrepreneurs are
currently bribing their way into most countries in Africa.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) The loss of Malawi would be the third African country
to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan in the last three years.
Despite some press rumors that Taiwan was close to gaining
recognition from other countries in Africa, Taipei appears to
be facing an uphill battle on the continent given the PRC's
growing clout. If the formal loss comes in the middle of
Taiwan's current legislative and presidential election
season, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is
likely to try to use the issue for political gain, playing up
Chinese hostile intentions to further squeeze Taiwan's
international space. At the same time, the opposition
Kuomintang (KMT) is likely to seize on this loss as a
reflection of the DPP administration's failure in the
international arena.
YOUNG