FIJI UPDATE -- SCENESETTER FOR EAP PDAS DAVIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000072

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

CANBERRA, PORT MORESBY PASS TO EAP PDAS DAVIES

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV CJAN PHUM FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE -- SCENESETTER FOR EAP PDAS DAVIES
VISIT FEB. 27

REF: A. SUVA 060

B. SUVA 040

C. SUVA 9

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
--------------

1. (C) Fiji interim Prime Minister Bainimarama, currently in
India, has issued a decree reforming the Great Council of
Chiefs, putting himself in control of yet another
institution. The move has generated heated reactions at all
levels of the ethnic-Fijian community. Bainimarama's recent
effort, with interim Finance Minister Chaudhry, to address
"land use" issues is another hot topic. On the other hand,
the interim government (IG) has recently given indications it
is moving forward to prepare for March 2009 elections, though
some evidence remains worrisome. Tonga PM Sevele believes
Bainimarama will uphold his elections pledge and urges donors
to pat Frank on the back and assist. On the judicial front,
the IG has banned an International Bar Association team from
visiting Fiji, and the Acting Chief Justice has suspended all
foreign donor assistance to the judiciary. We comment that
pressures in Fiji have definitely risen in recent weeks. It
appears Bainimarama still calculates he has the upper hand
and, to date, he has calculated accurately. Embassy Suva
remains alert to developments. End summary.

Gutting the GCC: Bainimarama rules
--------------

2. (U) Interim PM Bainimarama is in India for medical
consultations. He is due back in Fiji on Friday, Feb. 22.
In his absence, the official interim government (IG) gazette
issued new Great Council of Chiefs (GCC) regulations on Feb.
13 under Bainimarama's signature. The regulations have
created a firestorm in the ethnic-Fijian community. Late
last year, the IG commissioned five high chiefs to consult
with their colleagues and put together a new-look GCC to
replace the old GCC that Bainimarama suspended last April
after that GCC declined to endorse Bainimarama's choice of
interim Foreign Minister Nailatikau to be Vice President.
The chiefly commission proposed that the new GCC be
apolitical; but the new decree installs Bainimarama as GCC
Chair and give him final say over all the other members. The
new regs include restrictions that exclude most anyone who
has taken an active role in political life since 2000 and
that give the chair sole discretion in creating the GCC
agenda.

Chiefs issue strong warnings
--------------

3. (U) The leader of the GCC chiefly commission has
acknowledged publicly that the new regulations do not conform
with what chiefs agreed to, in particular the need for the
GCC not to be led by senior political figures like
Bainimarama. Ro Tememu Kepa, one of Fiji's three highest
chiefs and a minister in the deposed Qarase Government, has
accused Bainimarama of creating a sham GCC that will do his
bidding on future President and Vice President nominees.
Kepa has asked publicly how senior military officers (nearly
all of whom are ethnic Fijian) can "just sit back when Fijian
institutions and the very heart of the Fijian structure are
being targeted." Comment: That sounds like fomenting mutiny.
End comment.

"Land" another potential flash point
--------------

4. (C) The GCC shocker comes atop a controversy about another
supreme ethnic-Fijian interest: "land." Bainimarama and
interim Finance Minister Chaudhry announced several weeks ago
the creation of an IG commission to consider how land use in
Fiji might be improved. Most land is communally owned by
ethnic-Fijian grassroots communities and is managed by the
Native Lands Trust Board. The NLTB has had many legitimate
critics, and its land policies have managed to frustrate both
ethnic-Indian tenants (mostly in sugar-cane farming) and
ethnic-Fijian lessors. Indians have wanted long leases with
easy renewal; the Fijians have wanted higher rents that flow
to the villages. During the past ten years, quite a number
of sugar-cane leases have expired with Fijian lessors taking
the land back. Chaudhry, whose political base is sugar
farmers, wants to resuscitate that industry, in part by
freeing up long-term land "use." He argues that actual,

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underlying land ownership would remain with Fijians, so there
should be no problem. Ethnic-Fijians do not trust Chaudhry,
and in fact his efforts in 2000 to address "land use" were a
contributing factor to the 2000 coup.

"A catastrophic mistake"
--------------

5. (C) One of Fiji's highest chiefs, the Ka Levu, has labeled
the combined Bainimarama/Chaudhry effort to address "land"
again as "a catastrophic mistake," and he has urged "a high
degree of caution" on the IG. Several other high chiefs and
former PM Rabuka have also flagged that IG dabbling in the
land issue is playing with fire. To ethnic Fijians, land is
far more than an economic commodity, it is deeply cultural.
That reality can frustrate economic-development goals; but
the Ka Levu proposed this week that, as Fijians asked
colonial Europeans, "we ask the same of everyone now, that
they adapt to Fiji rather than asking that Fiji adapt to
them."

Positive signs re election preparations?
--------------

6. (C) On perhaps a brighter note, the IG's attitude
regarding preparations for March 2009 elections seems to have
become more forthcoming in recent days. For several months,
the Pacific Islands Forum-Fiji Working Group for election
preparations had made little progress. Necessary
elections-related positions were slow to be filled; nuts and
bolts steps were not happening; and, when queried by the PIF
and other donors, the IG seemed uninterested in seeking help.
But in the last few weeks that atmosphere changed. Two
persons were named to the Constitutional Offices Commission,
permitting the COC to conduct interviews for a Supervisor of
Elections. DVC interviews with 4 candidates from Australia,
3 from New Zealand, and 1 from South Africa, are commencing.
The Elections Commission and the Election Boundaries
Commission seem to have begun necessary work. In a
Fiji-donor consultative group, the IG has begun to indicate
steps donors might take to assist election plans.

Will of IG: elections in March 2009
--------------

7. (C) In a meeting with the diplomatic corps on Feb. 13, the
IG's senior point man on election matters, the PermSec for
Justice (a seconded military colonel) stated categorically:
"It is the will of the interim government to return to
elections in March 2009, and there are no alternate dates."
He added that the IG's People's Charter process is proceeding
as well, and the IG intends for that process to conclude
prior to elections; but the two processes are "independent
and will not affect each other." The PermSec expressed
confidence that, while the timetable has fallen a bit behind
the initial forecast, all necessary preparations can still be
completed for March 2009 elections.

But not all themes harmonize
--------------

8. (C) While such words are encouraging, discordant themes
still arise. The IG's head of the Elections Commission, a
lawyer with behind-the-scenes ties to Chaudhry, suggested in
a TV interview last week that it is the Commission, and not
Bainimarama's IG, that will determine just how quickly Fiji
can be ready for elections. In the same interview, when
asked if the IG could keep candidates (like deposed PM
Qarase) from running for parliament, the lawyer hedged, even
while acknowledging the Fiji Constitution's clear provision
that most anyone who is not a bankrupt can be a candidate.

IG, People's Charter, and free elections
--------------

9. (C) The National Commission for Building a Better Fiji
(NCBBF, the People's Charter process),has set up a series of
working groups to consider Fiji's future in detail.
Interestingly, a starry-eyed participant who has been active
for nearly a year in developing the process, assured us
recently that concluding in timely fashion is no problem
because "in reality the People's Charter is already written;
it just needs to be blessed." In a newspaper interview, John
Samy, the former ADB official who is the brains behind the
NCBBF, hinted that regulations on "electoral corruption"
which the interim AG is formulating will address the issue of
whether Qarase and his ilk can be candidates. Samy predicted
that all parties participating in the elections will include

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the People's Charter prominently in their manifestos, and
that the People's Charter, once approved by a planned
referendum, will "have moral and indeed legal force on future
governments." Comment: Since Qarase's SDL Party, the
National Federation Party, and the Methodist Church are
taking no part in the NCBBF, it is difficult to read Samy's
predictions as anything other than a preview of some sort of
"election regulation" process to screen out all those who do
not subscribe to the IG's vision.

Tonga PM Sevele's view of Fiji
--------------

10. (C) When Tonga PM Sevele visited Suva Jan. 25, he met
with Bainimarama and others. Later in Nuku'alofa, Sevele
stressed to us his view that the international community
should accept Bainimarama's promise at last October's PIF
meeting that the IG will ensure acceptable elections in March

2009. Sevele is convinced "that will happen." Given
Bainimarama's assurance, "sniping is not helpful."
Polynesians "resent a lack of trust." We pointed out that
Bainimarama has not conveyed a consistent message since
October, and the IG has not consistently facilitated
preparations for a free and fair process open to all with
assurance that the Fiji military will abide by the results.
Sevele responded, "Well, Frank isn't really a politician."
We suggested that as a reason why he should go back to the
barracks. Sevele informed us that PIF interest in sending a
second Eminent Persons Group to assess the Fiji situation was
rejected by the IG. However, a PIF Foreign Ministers meeting
to follow up on last October's Fiji discussions is to take
place in New Zealand in March.

Judicial politics remain heated
--------------

11. (C) Per reftels, the IG's judiciary is being pressured
from all sides. In the end, plans by the International Bar
Association to send a mission to Fiji (ref A) were thwarted
when interim AG Sayed-Khaiyum issued a "no entry" order last
weekend. The IBA has "suspended" its visit plans, as the
Fiji Law Society attempts to get the IG to be more receptive.
The ban of the IBA has raised eyebrows among lawyers and
judges internationally, including in Australia, New Zealand,
and Malaysia. Four Australian justices arrived in Suva last
weekend to convene the Fiji Supreme Court, the first such
sitting since the coup. We hear the justices were discussing
how to try to keep Acting CJ Gates from participating. We
hear indirectly that Gates, who received his "acting"
position by seemingly illegal means, has decided he will not
participate in this Supreme Court session. Gates has decreed
that all foreign assistance to the Fiji judiciary is
suspended, and all future assistance must funnel through
Gates's office. The IG alleges that AUSAid, NZAid, UN, World
Bank and other donors have favored particular judges, seeking
to "divide the judiciary," thereby threatening its
independence.

Comment
--------------

12. (C) The political temperature has clearly risen in Fiji,
in particular within the ethnic-Fijian community because of
the GCC and land issues. Ethnic-Indian entrepreneurs are
grumbling, too, believing the IG, and Chaudhry in particular,
are "anti-business." We have spoken with several prominent
Fiji businessmen who have scrapped investment plans. The
Fiji Water dispute with Fiji Customs (ref C) has added to the
gloom, as has a similar Customs dispute with Fiji's lone gold
mine. Reports continue of some degree of unhappiness within
the Fiji military, reportedly directed at Bainimarama's
reliance on Chaudhry for advice. Thus far, though, we have
not seen firm evidence that any of the current pressures will
result in overt instability. Presumably, Bainimarama has
calculated he retains control of the guns and through that
has the capacity to force the ethnic-Fijian community to
accept his vision of reform. We remain alert.
DINGER