FIJI: BAINIMARAMA FIRMLY IN CHARGE; NO PATH YET TO

S E C R E T SUVA 000474


PLEASE PASS TO EAP/ANP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI: BAINIMARAMA FIRMLY IN CHARGE; NO PATH YET TO
ELECTIONS

REF: A. 08 SUVA 315

B. 08 SUVA 400

C. 08 SUVA 432

Classified By: Ambassador McGann for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)

Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) Summary. Bainimarama remains firmly in control of
Fiji,s government. While he originally intended the
President,s Political Dialogue Forum as a mechanism to
further delay elections, the process has taken on a life of
its own. While some within the Interim Government remain
opposed to near-term elections, opposition political parties
appear to recognize the necessity of reaching a political
compromise. The IG has begun efforts to reach out to Fiji,s
traditional chiefs in an effort to counter strong and largely
unified opposition to the IG by Fiji,s indigenous
population. In January in Port Moresby, the PIF is faced with
a tough decision whether to suspend Fiji prior to an attempt
at dialogue by its political leadership. Such an action might
prove counter-productive and play into the IG,s hands. The
Embassy believes we might be able to play a useful role in
the early months of 2009 by publicly urging all parties to
seek a workable compromise to return to democracy. End
summary.

Bainimarama Firmly in Charge
--------------


2. (SBU) Two years after the December 5, 2006 coup,
Bainimarama,s handle on the government remains firmly
entrenched. Recent obvious miscues with New Zealand
demonstrated his sense of confidence and ongoing need to show
the military council that he is willing to stand up to
Australia and New Zealand. Bainimarama,s frequent overseas
travel also underscores his confidence in his position.

The President,s Political Dialogue Forum
--------------


3. (SBU) Work is ongoing preparatory to a meeting of the
proposed President,s Political Dialogue Forum (PPDF)
sometime early 2009. Most observers believe that Bainimarama
originally intended for the PPDF to be a way to delay the
election process because no one believed that it would be
embraced by the opposition parties. However, the PPDF has
now taken on a life of its own. During a November 16
meeting, deposed prime minister Laisenia Qarase told the
Ambassador he would do whatever possible to make the PPDF
work, despite earlier nay-saying by SDL spokesmen. Qarase
said that he believes the time has come for compromise and if
necessary he would be willing to step aside if Bainimarama
would agree to relinquish administration of the government.
Qarase was referencing a compromise following the 2000 coup
when Ratu Jope Seniloli was given the vice presidency, a
largely ceremonial but influential position.


4. (SBU) Qarase also noted that he would be willing to
consider various formulae for returning democracy including
reinstating the current parliament with a transition prime
minister that would complete the two years left in this
parliamentary session. These two years could be spent
preparing for elections and implementing those acceptable
ideas contained in the Peoples, Charter. Qarase said that
whatever the final arrangement some compromise could be
reached by March if all of the political leaders were just
locked in a room together for a couple of weeks.


5. (SBU) At present, Robin Nair and Sitiveni Halapua are
preparing proposed terms of reference for the PPDF.
Presumably, a second meeting of political party leaders will
convene early 2009 to agree on terms of reference for the
PPDF. No date has been set for either meeting. The IG
continues to wait for a response from the United Nations
and/or Commonwealth as to what role each might play and
whether either organization might nominate someone to chair
the PPDF process.


6. (SBU) There is a clear need to give the PPDF greater
structure, thereby limiting avenues by which the IG can avoid
progress. Australian High Commissioner James Bately
continues to express interest in funding a secretariat for
the PPDF to help give it structure. This would enable Robin
Nair and Sitiveni Halapua to not just be rapporteurs but also
facilitate the PPDF process. All international partners
recognize the need to ensure that the PPDF is a close-ended
process.

John Samy and the NCBBF Process
--------------


7. (SBU) The National Council for Building a Better Fiji
(NCBBF) completed nation-wide &consultations8 on the draft
Peoples, Charter this month and presented their report to
the president on December 15. The NCBBF claimed to have
consulted approximately 425,000 people, with more than
370,000 completing response forms, 92 percent of which
reportedly fully endorsed the Charter. As reported reftels B
and C, the consultation process involved a wide range of
coercion and is perceived as having very little legitimacy.
Opponents continue to question why, if the public truly
supports the Charter, the IG remains unwilling to hold a
public referendum on the document as originally promised.
Meanwhile, the role the Peoples, Charter will play in
Fiji,s future and how its aspirational goals will become
political realities remains a mystery.


8. (C) In a recent lunch meeting, the architect of the
Peoples, Charter, John Samy, told the Ambassador that that
he undertook the process thinking it would be helpful to
Fiji. As political events have unfolded since the Charter,s
launch in August, Samy has lost enthusiasm for the direction
of the IG. He expressed disappointment about the
intimidation used to get people to endorse the Charter. Samy
understands now that the aspirational goals of the Charter )
some of which are necessary to take Fiji away from race-based
politics ) will not be met without returning to the 1997
Constitution and Parliament. Ultimately, it might require a
deal among all the parties and it is too soon to tell whether
the PPDF can achieve this. Samy said he was looking forward
to his return to New Zealand.

Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum and the Politics of Delay
--------------


9. (C) Some of Samy,s frustration at the direction the IG
has taken undoubtedly stems from encounters with attorney
general Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, who remains close to Bainimarama
and is strongly opposed to holding elections in the near
term. Fiji,s highest ranking civil servant, Parmesh Chand,
reached out to the Ambassador to express concern, both his
own and on behalf of others within the IG seeking elections
in 2009, about the AG,s influence with Bainimarama.
Chand,s view, that the AG has captured the ear of
Bainimarama in a negative way, is widely held in Fiji.


10. (C) While ideology undoubtedly plays a role,
Sayed-Khaiyum,s personal ambition and political isolation
likely fuel his opposition to near-term elections. The AG is
not affiliated with any major political party, has limited
contacts outside the IG, and would face an uncertain future
should he lose his position. He was in default on several
property loans to one of Fiji,s largest banks for much of
the past two years; the bank unwilling to foreclose for (the
entirely reasonable) fear that its expatriate managers would
be deported should they do so. He recently resolved the
delinquencies by selling the properties to law firms he
dishes out IG work to, for prices well above fair market
value.


11. (C) For the time being, Sayed-Khaiyum seems firmly
ensconced, having time and again proven himself as
Bainimarma,s go-to guy, resolving a number of political and
economic problems created by other IG ministers.

Courting the Chiefs
--------------


12. (SBU) Bainimarama,s recent efforts to mend fences with
Fiji,s traditional chiefs have shown mixed reviews. The IG
invited 285 chiefs of all ranks to a traditional meeting
(called a Bose ni Turaga) on December 16-17. About 123
turned out, largely lower ranking, primarily from the village
and district levels. Notably absent were Fiji,s powerful
provincial and confederate level chiefs, some of whom served
in the SDL government, many bitterly opposed to the IG.


13. (SBU) Because the Bose ni Turaga lacks legal status
(unlike the Great Council of Chiefs) and was not sanctioned
by Fiji,s most powerful chiefs, the IG wisely refrained from
pursuing any pro-Peoples, Charter resolutions. However,
President Iloilo and Bainimarama both pleaded for support.
The chiefs were asked to tell their people about the IG,s
progress in making Fiji a better place. The IG may be
seeking to siphon away some of the lower level chiefs who
attended the meeting and their provincial and confederacy
heads who did not. Although Bainimarama insisted upon this
chief,s meeting, it seems he has taken a step away from
trying to undermine the Great Council of Chiefs. Whether
this is acknowledgment that he cannot put forward his agenda
without the chiefs remains to be seen.

PIF AND PPDF OUT OF SYNC


14. (SBU) The PIF special session on January 27 in Port
Moresby is scheduled to discuss suspending Fiji if the IG
does not announce a clear path to elections. Bainimarama is
not wont to do so until after the PPDF concludes, which
entails a series of meetings, the first of which will likely
start in February. The PIF is faced with a dilemma. To
suspend Fiji prior to an attempt at dialogue by its political
leadership would be counter-productive. At the same time,
the PIF has not yet endorsed the PPDF process as a recognized
mechanism to return Fiji to democracy. The PIF could be seen
as backtracking rather than being assertive if it gives the
IG yet another pass. The views of Australia, New Zealand and
Papua New Guinea will be critical to the stance the PIF
eventually takes.


15. (SBU) Bainimarama would see a decision by the PIF to hold
off Fiji,s suspension as a clear victory. Despite the
widespread belief in Fiji and the region that there is enough
time for elections to be held in 2009, any compromise that
emerges from the PPDF could play into the IG,s insistence
that elections would take another 12-15 months.

Comment
--------------


16. (SBU) The Embassy notes that any compromise emerging from
the PPDF would not likely take form until March at the
earliest. Although many believe that elections can be held
in late 2009, it is likely that whatever the outcome,
Bainimarama will try to hold to the 12-15 month timetable he
set starting from the day the Electoral Commission begins
work but only after the PPDF agrees on electoral reform.
Embassy believes that by publicly urging all parties to seek
a clear path to return to democracy, we might be able to
nudge Fiji,s parties to a yet-to-be-determined compromise.


MCGANN