RE-INVENTED FIJIAN OPPOSITIONIST CALLS ON AMBASSADOR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000435

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

PLEASE PASS TO EAP PDAS GLYN DAVIES, EAP/ANP, AND INR/EAP

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, FJ

SUBJ: RE-INVENTED FIJIAN OPPOSITIONIST CALLS ON AMBASSADOR

1. (SBU) Mahendra Chaudhry, one of Fiji's leading opposition
figures who until recently served with the interim government,
called on Embassy Suva to explain to Ambassador his newfound
opposition to the interim government's electoral reform proposals,
support for a new election timetable, skepticism regarding recent
attempts at political dialogue, despair for Fiji's economic future,
and concern for Fiji's continued participation in the Pacific
Islands Forum. End summary.

ON ELECTIONS AND ELECTORAL REFORM

2. (U) Ambassador Steven McGann met for nearly two hours with
Mahendra Chaudhry on November 10. Chaudhry, a former prime minister
who was deposed by a civilian putsch in 2000, resigned in August as
the interim government's finance minister to reclaim his leadership
role of the Fiji Labour Party (FLP). The FLP is one of the two
largest and most important political parties in Fiji.

3. (SBU) Throughout the cordial meeting Chaudhry repetitively
called for elections and election reform, but with a different
timetable and different reforms than those proposed by the interim
government (IG). As a cabinet member, he strongly supported the
IG's proposed common role system. He now sees it as doomed to
failure, noting that under his understanding of the current
proposal, the ballot would contain an unwieldy 112 candidates.
Chaudhry believes strongly in a reform that combines two-thirds
common role representation and one third communal representation,
not unlike that proposed in the 1996 Reeves Commission report.

4. (SBU) Despite his recent close proximity to decision makers,
Chaudhry is baffled by how the IG will make elections work
logistically. He was emphatic that the country could not hold
elections by the end of March 2009--as promised to the Pacific
Islands Forum by Bainimarama in 2007--as first there must be an
agreement on reform, then boundaries need to be determined and
agreed to, and time must be set aside to consider electorate
objections. Chaudhry felt, however, that elections could
comfortably be held before the end of 2009, and suggested late
November and early December as an excellent time, because school is
out for the long southern hemisphere school break, and school
facilities make for ideal polling stations.

ON POLITICAL DIALOGUE

5. (SBU) Ambassador emphasized the need for an inclusive engagement
and discussion on elections that results in clear agreed-to
timelines and benchmarks. Chaudhry agreed that timelines must be
fixed, but worried that the proposed President's Political Dialogue
Forum (PPDF) might not happen as there has been no recent response
from either the Commonwealth or United Nations. Chaudhry then
quipped: "I don't know when we will talk seriously about
elections."

6. (SBU) Ambassador noted that neither women nor nongovernmental
organizations were represented in the recent preliminary political
dialogue and asked Chaudhry for his evaluation of "interlocutors"
Sitiveni Halapua and Robin Nair. Chaudhry said Robin Nair was too
tainted by his association with the Charter but worked well with
Halapua. He liked working with the more effective Halapua, as he
understood the "Pacific way." He would like Halapua to communicate
with Bainimarama and play a stronger, more facilitative and
aggressive role. Chaudhry nonetheless felt that the preliminary
political dialogue is nothing but a delaying tactic by Bainimarama
to avoid discussing the real issues that need to be taken to the
PPDF.

7. (SBU) Chaudhry strongly felt that the PPDF needs to happen as
soon as possible. He worried that the inclusion of women's and
civil society organizations in the PPDF would be a big mistake that
would drastically delay the process of getting to elections. He
urged that the PPDF focus solely on election reform and not include
Charter discussions, which should be kept to the side.

ON THE PEOPLE'S CHARTER

8. (SBU) When asked about his views on the People's Charter,
Chaudhry responded that the FLP has six main objections to the
Charter, but of those six, two for him are paramount: electoral

SUVA 00000435 002 OF 002


reform as proposed and the role of the military as nebulously
defined in the Charter. In his view, the military needs to
downsize, as there is no external threat to Fiji. He stated that
the Charter is not a panacea, that the 11 pillars of the Charter are
nothing new, that the inherent ideas have been proposed by political
leaders in the past, many in the FLP's own manifesto. Chaudhry does
not believe the Charter cannot be enacted or observed on a de facto
basis without first being approved by a legally elected parliament.

ON THE ECONOMY

9. (SBU) With regard to the economy, Chaudhry feels the situation
will continue to spiral downward, especially without the
once-promised $350 million of EU sugar money. Chaudhry appeared
almost angry that so much of the national budget is spent on the
military when there are such critical needs in health, education and
other sectors. Ambassador cautioned that the IG must be careful
with economic policies, warning that if Fiji loses a company like
Fiji Water, it will send a terrible, irreversible signal to
potential investors. (Chaudhry's ill-considered imposition of new
and extraordinary taxes on Fiji Water nearly caused the company to
close shop and was said to be the proximate cause of Chaudhry's
dismissal as finance minister.)

10. (SBU) Chaudhry and FLP leaders have traveled and consulted
widely throughout Fiji over the last several months. Chaudhry found
that people want elections, feel they are living in a "vacuum," and
that without members of Parliament to turn to, they despair of
achieving any real progress. He discerned that young people
frequently talk privately about the political situation but dare do
so publicly. Chaudhry implied that many of his constituents have
given up on Fiji and postulated that Indo-Fijians would decrease to
25 percent of the population within 20 years.

ON THE PACIFIC ISLANDS FORUM

11. (SBU) Chaudhry urged the Ambassador to work with the
international community to take a position on electoral reform, be
more assertive, and to collectively act through the Pacific Islands
Forum Secretariat (PIFS) to make clear exactly what is expected of
the interim government. Ambassador responded that he is not here as
a proconsul and that the U.S. position is clear: until we have
significant progress toward the return of democratic governance in
Fiji, sanctions will remain in place, there will be no expansion of
Fijian participation in peace keeping operations, we will not
consider any notion of exceptionalism, and we have and will continue
to work through the PIFS.

12. (SBU) Chaudhry wondered what will result from Joint Forum
Working Group scheduled to discuss Fiji on November 20, the
Ministerial Contact Group proposed for later this month, and the
special meeting of PIF leaders to be hosted by Prime Minister
Michael Somare next month in Papua New Guinea. Chaudhry seemed
genuinely concerned with whether the PIF would suspend Fiji from the
PIF and noted that Bainimarama made a grave mistake by not going to
Niue for the Leaders meeting in August.

13. (U) Ambassador suggested that they should meet regularly.
Chaudhry was clearly interested and suggested that they should meet
after he returns from India next month.

COMMENT

14. (SBU) Chaudhry seemed comfortable in his return to the role of
political opposition leader. He has clearly changed his views since
departing the IG in order to be more in tune with that of his
constituents but seemed to be struggling with how far he could push
his new-found views without seeming hypocritical. He is a seasoned
political survivor with his finger on a larger social and political
pulse. While the subject was not explicitly discussed, Chaudhry
implied that there is much dissatisfaction in the Indo-Fijian
community. To tap into that dissatisfaction while simultaneously
assuaging both Bainimarama and the concerns of the indigenous
community will require Chaudhry to use all of his considerable
skills as a political chameleon. End comment.

MCGANN