Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08SUVA40
2008-01-31 15:27:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Suva
Cable title:  

FIJI UPDATE: BAINIMARAMA FUDGES ELECTION DATE

Tags:  PREL PGOV CJAN PHUM FJ 
pdf how-to read a cable
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PP RUEHPB
DE RUEHSV #0040/01 0311527
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 311527Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY SUVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0297
INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1927
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 0122
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1465
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0041
RUEHNZ/AMCONSUL AUCKLAND 0588
RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY 1002
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000040 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV CJAN PHUM FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE: BAINIMARAMA FUDGES ELECTION DATE
(AGAIN); MEDICAL VISIT TO INDIA; ANOTHER REPORT OF
DIVISIONS IN MILITARY; IG SHUNS INTERNATIONAL BAR ASSN

REF: A. SUVA 033


B. SUVA 17

C. SUVA 19

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000040

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV CJAN PHUM FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE: BAINIMARAMA FUDGES ELECTION DATE
(AGAIN); MEDICAL VISIT TO INDIA; ANOTHER REPORT OF
DIVISIONS IN MILITARY; IG SHUNS INTERNATIONAL BAR ASSN

REF: A. SUVA 033


B. SUVA 17

C. SUVA 19

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
--------------

1. (C) Fiji interim Prime Minister Bainimarama told a radio
reporter Jan. 31 that an election could take place in 2009
(as he has promised regional leaders) or ten or fifteen years
from now, depending on God's plan and contingent on
achievement of a pathway to progress and stability.
Bainimarama reportedly will travel to India soon for a
medical check. A well-placed source suggests Bainimarama is
under increasing stress, in part due to divisions in the
military. When the International Bar Association (IBA)
proposed to visit Fiji in February to undertake an inquiry
into the judiciary, the IG said no outside observers of the
judiciary will be welcome until after all the constitutional
cases related to the coup are concluded. That stonewalling
adds to the perception that the Fiji judiciary has become
compromised. End summary.

Bainimarama: election date in God's hands
--------------

2. (U) Interim PM Bainimarama reportedly told a radio
reporter on Jan. 31 that the date for elections could be
2009, or even ten or fifteen years away, "it is all part of
God's plan." It seems the remark was in response to a
Methodist Church leader's suggestion that people pray to have
elections actually take place by March 2009. Bainimarama
said, as he has before, that the elections will only be held
"after a pathway to progress and stability in the nation is
achieved."

Bainimarama to India for medical check
--------------

3. (C) We hear from a reliable source that Bainimarama plans
to visit India, perhaps as soon as next week, for a medical
check-up at the "Batra" center. New Delhi has reportedly
given its OK. Prior to the 2006 coup, Bainimarama visited
New Zealand periodically for medical checks of a heart
condition and/or high blood pressure. New Zealand travel

sanctions have made that impossible.

Trouble in the barracks?
--------------

4. (C) The same reliable source, who has excellent access to
portions of the IG, reports that Bainimarama is under
increasing stress, in part because of divisions developing
within the military leadership. See ref B, and previous, for
discussion of issues that may be causing such
dissatisfaction.

Shutting out potential critics of judiciary
--------------

5. (C) Last week, the International Bar Association announced
it will send a delegation to Fiji Feb. 18-22 to investigate
reports of problems in the Fiji judiciary. (See ref C for a
long list of concerns.) On Jan. 30, interim Attorney General
Sayed-Khaiyum informed the media that the IG "welcomes such a
visit but not now." Sayed-Khaiyum argued that IBA inquiries
could prejudice the numerous coup-related cases now before
the Fiji courts, including the Qarase case and the work of
the tribunal to consider charges against suspended Chief
Justice Fatiaki. Sayed-Khaiyum alleged that Fiji lawyers
involved in such cases have spurred the visit. The interim
AG proposed to postpone all outside inquiries into the Fiji
judiciary until after all constitutional cases related to the
coup are completed. IG Ombudsman Shaista Shameem has also
expressed concern about the proposed timing. She added that
her busy schedule may not permit a meeting with the visitors.
An NGO, the Young People's Concerned Network, responded that
the IG is practicing a "double standard." Meanwhile, the IG
is seeking a stay in CJ Fatiaki's constitutional case,
seemingly arguing that all constitutional issues of all cases
related to the coup should be consolidated into Qarase's
case, with all other cases waiting for that result.

Comment
--------------

6. (C) Bainimarama has waffled over time about the date for

SUVA 00000040 002 OF 002


elections. When he reads from a text, he often signals March

2009. When he wings it, he sometimes expands the timeline
significantly. The report that he is under increasing
stress, in part because of concerns about divisions within
the military leadership, doesn't neatly fit with a trip to
India. When the cat is away, the mice may play. Of course,
it could be that Bainimarama is seriously worried about his
health. After the coup we heard reports that he occasionally
suffered black-outs and had trouble sleeping.


7. (C) The recent IBA and judicial developments further
buttress the points made in Ref C: that the IG and
IG-affiliated judges are doing their best to slow the process
regarding the constitutional cases and to stall all such
cases except the slow-moving Qarase case that is being
managed by three IG-affiliated judges. Since the proposed
IBA visit is intended to look into the credibility of the
Fiji judiciary to be handling coup-related cases,
Sayed-Khaiyum's argument that such international visitors
will only be welcomed after such cases have concluded, begs
the question. It is precisely because the coup-related
constitutional cases are under way that an independent
perspective on the judiciary's current ability to resolve
such cases neutrally would be valuable.
DINGER