TONGA: PLOTTING THE FUTURE AFTER THE PEOPLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 SUVA 000174

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV CVIS PHUM SOCI KJAN TN FJ
SUBJECT: TONGA: PLOTTING THE FUTURE AFTER THE PEOPLE
UNMISTAKABLY ENDORSE RAPID REFORM

REF: A. SUVA 158

B. SUVA 146

C. SUVA 109

D. SUVA 71

Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D).

Summary
--------------

1. (C) Most everyone in Tonga accepts an April 24 election
signaled the vast majority want rapid democratic reform.
Prime Minister Sevele was shocked by the result. He thought
an onslaught of ads tying veteran People's Representatives
(PRs) to a riot in November 2006 would sway voters. He was
wrong. Two days after the election, Sevele met with PR
leader Pohiva to start a dialogue on the future, a very
useful sign, though many issues will need to be worked
through. Both the PRs (instinctively in opposition mode) and
the Government (inclined to look for checks on popular will)
need to re-orient themselves to finding a transparent,
inclusive means to build the future political system. The
King reportedly remains focused on cashing out his business
interests and preparing for his luxurious coronation on
August 1. Meanwhile, criminal sedition cases against a
number of PRs are on the court docket for August. China
continues to ply the Tonga Government with assistance,
including two new funding arrangements announced during the
King's recent visit. Tonga, as current Chair of the Pacific
Islands Forum (PIF),sees a degree of uncertainty about the
commitment of Fiji's interim government (IG) to elections by
March 2009 and expects a ministerial delegation will need to
visit Suva before the PIF leaders meeting in August. Tonga's
Defense Board has approved two more six-month deployments of
troops to Iraq (MNFI) to September 2009, with an option to
reconsider if the U.S. pulls back. Tonga leaders remain
intent on the USG reciprocating by offering NIV services on
the ground in Nuku'alofa. End summary.


2. (C) In a visit to Nuku'alofa May 5-7, the Ambassador met
with a wide variety of prominent Tongans. The King was
ailing and unavailable, and PM Sevele was on a trip to Europe
and Washington; but interlocutors included Chief Justice
Ford, Acting PM Tangi, Foreign Minister/Defense Minister
Tu'a, Finance Minister 'Afualo, Attorney General Taumoepeau,
Tonga Defense Services (TDS) Commander Brigadier General
Uta'atu, PR Akilisi Pohiva, PR Clive Edwards, Noble
Fielakepa, the High Commissioners of Australia and New
Zealand, and the Ambassador of China.

Elections clear: Tongans want rapid reform
--------------

3. (C) Tonga's April 24 election for People's Representatives
(PRs) to Parliament (Ref A) changed the political landscape
dramatically. Five veteran PRs, who have been pushing hard
for democratic reforms and who are under indictment on
allegations of inciting a November 2006 riot, were elected
with sizable majorities, in some cases by larger totals than
previously. Initial results suggested at least six PRs out
of nine, reflecting a good 80% of Tonga's population, had won
on reform platforms. PM Sevele's political advisor Lopeti
Senituli (protect) told us pro-democracy leader Akilisi
Pohiva's results were exceptionally impressive. Once again,
he had the highest vote totals in the country by far, but he
also won two populous districts on Tongatapu that he had
never won before, including the home district of PM Sevele.
Pohiva told us two more PRs have made clear since the
election they are in the reformist camp. Only one out of
nine, the junior PR from Vava'u, is staying away.

Some conservatives looking for brakes
--------------

4. (C) Most people in Tonga, even in the Government, agree
that the people spoke clearly: they want democratic reform to
proceed, and they want it quickly. But some conservative
elements are grumbling. The Attorney General (protect)
expressed a hope that "the people weren't endorsing
lawlessness." Senituli said his own view is that voters were
opting strongly for reform, not endorsing the riot. Some in
Government, including Brigadier General Uta'atu, head of the
Tonga Defense Service (TDS),are suggesting eventual reforms
need to include provisions to screen out those who lack
sufficient education and experience from running for seats
and taking ministerial portfolios. Uta'atu referred to the

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"Taiwan model." Some at MFA raised the possibility of adding
new checks and balances to curb populist enthusiasm in the
future system.

PM's "voter education," media controls backfired
-------------- ---

5. (C) Sources close to Sevele said he was absolutely shocked
by the election result. He had been confident the public
would vote out the old crowd of PRs, blaming them for the
riot. For two and a half weeks prior to the election, the
Government had flooded the populace with ads directly linking
the PRs with the riot. Reportedly, the Government
distributed 300 video cassettes across Tonga, and Government
reps bought all available time slots on the one commercial
radio station. By several accounts, the PM's office had
directed a censorship effort to ban from government-owned TV
Tonga and Radio Tonga all candidate messages that might be
considered critical of the Government. Several sources,
including Senituli (protect),suggested the effort backfired,
stirred further irritation against the PM, and encouraged
votes for incumbent PRs. New Finance Minister 'Afualo Matoto
(protect) said Sevele "is the most hated person in Tonga."
Others echoed that sentiment. Senituli acknowledged the
Government needs to "work harder" on media issues. We
proposed the best course is to unfetter the media and live
with criticism when it occurs.

PM opens door to dialogue...and hope
--------------

6. (C) Pohiva informed us that two days after the election PM
Sevele arranged a meeting between the two. Sevele and Pohiva
were once colleagues in the pro-democracy movement; but, with
Sevele's move into the PM-ship where he has been perceived to
be slow on reform, and with Sevele blaming Pohiva for the
riot that destroyed Sevele's supermarket and endangered his
family, the two had not spoken in ages. Pohiva clearly was
encouraged by the meeting, though he and Deputy PM Tangi, who
also attended, both acknowledge the discussion did not reach
conclusions. Sevele's outreach was, in itself, a positive
signal.


7. (C) In the meeting, Pohiva offered a deal: if the King
would publicly sign a document accepting the political
reforms negotiated and informally accepted by Parliament last
year, the pro-democracy movement would attempt to ensure the
King's coronation festivities on August 1 are not obstructed
and would work with the Government collegially to iron out
details for Tonga's new, more-democratic political process to
be implemented in 2010. Sevele reportedly agreed to take the
offer back to Government (and the King) for consideration.
Tangi told us the Government's intent now is, in its last two
years, to design the best possible future. Sevele has agreed
to meet Pohiva again, once Sevele returns from his current
trip to Europe and Washington. Pohiva has agreed to postpone
a vacation in New Zealand in order to have that second
meeting. Senituli is relatively optimistic that the two
sides can now work together to a sensible outcome.

People's Reps still in opposition mode?
--------------

8. (C) In the conversation with Sevele, Pohiva attempted to
re-open at least part of last year's deal: arguing that the
formula for the new Parliament (17 PRs, 9 Nobles, and up to 4
selectees of the King) should be adjusted to permit the King
only 2 selectees. Pohiva told us Sevele seemed open to
considering that change; however, Senituli said the attempt
to re-open concluded negotiations was not well-received by
Government. Senituli did acknowledge that Pohiva seems to be
taking on a more positive attitude than he had often
exhibited in the past. (Note: Pohiva told us he is
re-evaluating his view from February (Ref D) that this was
his last election. He is re-invigorated...and maybe thinking
it would be good to be PM.)


9. (C) Another PR reformist leader, Clive Edwards, is still
very embittered by the Government's pre-election pressures on
media and on pro-democracy candidates. Edwards described how
security forces, both TDS and Police, armed with warrants
from the PM's office issued under the state of emergency that
has continued for the 18 months since the riots, broke up a
church-organized gathering that was to feature Edwards and
Pohiva. Edwards recounted the extensive censorship of the
media and the propaganda tying PRs with riot sedition.

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Edwards has proposed publicly that, given the election
results, the current Sevele Government should resign, to be
replaced with a caretaker government charged to negotiate the
future political structure and carry out new elections.
Pohiva told us the PRs are meeting repeatedly to try to
fashion a coherent vision for building the future.

Nobles considering their own interests
--------------

10. (C) Finance Minister 'Afualo said Tonga's 33 Nobles are
nervously considering their own futures. They elect 9 of
their members to Parliament; but traditionally they have, in
most cases, just gone along with what the King and his
self-appointed cabinet decided. Now some figure they had
better take active roles in the negotiation process for the
future. The two newly elected Nobles are seen as relatively
progressive. Some others are seen as very hard-line against
the PRs. Interestingly, Clive Edwards (protect) told us a
group of Nobles in Parliament has approached him (a lawyer)
to draft impeachment charges against Sevele, and he has
tentatively agreed to do so.


Shoreline-sale and coronation preparations
--------------

11. (C) Several sources said the King has only two issues in
focus at present: the sale of his Shoreline utility asset and
his coronation August 1. New Finance Minister 'Afualo said
negotiations continue on details of the Government's
re-purchase of Shoreline. A gross price of T$26M (US$13M) is
agreed; but the Government believes certain liabilities
should be deducted from that. Shoreline is resisting.
'Afualo says he will cut off negotiations if necessary. On
the coronation, we hear the King believes the Government's
numerous preparatory committees are inept. He has asked
private businesses to take up the slack. Media report the
public cost of the event is estimated at T$6M (US$3M). We
heard the King is aware of concern about the budget and, in
his own way, is trying to economize. He was appalled by the
cost of ermine in London and has decided he can make due with
the ermine trim from his father's royal cloak.

Riot-related court cases continue
--------------

12. (C) Chief Justice Ford reported that the hundreds of
riot-related criminal cases are moving smoothly through the
Tonga judicial system. In fact Tonga's case-management has
been so impressive that Ford will visit New York in early
June to receive a UN award. In July, Tonga's Court of Appeal
will consider an appeal by five PRs, including Pohiva and
Edwards, against a preliminary ruling by Ford in their cases.
The PR cases are currently scheduled for trial in August.
All the PRs but Edwards have chosen a jury trial. Pohiva is
stating publicly that the election results foreshadow what a
jury will conclude: the PRs are not guilty of sedition.
Edwards, having seen too many jury trials, is still unwilling
to trust the popular will. He is sticking with trial by
judge.

China assistance
--------------

13. (C) Finance Minister 'Afualo reported that the Tonga
Government now does not expect to accept the entire US$55M
loan that the PRC offered to help re-build Nuku'alofa after
the riot. That loan remains un-tapped, in part awaiting the
results of negotiations with land-holders in the affected
area. But there is also a desire to keep the total loan as
small as feasible, maybe only 40% of the offer, in order to
cut down on fees and reduce exposure to future exchange-rate
risk. The Chinese Ambassador to Tonga reported that two new,
multi-million-dollar funding streams, one a grant and one a
no-interest loan, were concluded during the King's recent
visit to China. Supposedly, neither stream has strings
attached. We'll see in time.

Tonga, the PIF, and Fiji
--------------

14. (C) Foreign Minister Tu'a reported that the Tonga
Government thinks Fiji interim PM Bainimarama will hold
elections by March 2009, per his commitment to the PIF.
However, Tu'a noted the onus is on the interim government
(IG),and there are some worrying signals. Tu'a believes the
Ministerial Action Group on Fiji, established at a March

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meeting in Auckland, will need to visit Fiji before the PIF
leaders meeting in Niue in August. If IG performance still
leaves significant concerns among island leaders in August,
Tu'a predicts the PIF's tone will have to get tougher. Tu'a
described varied attitudes within the PIF about the Fiji
situation. He said the Melanesians (PNG, Solomons, Vanuatu)
tend to take a soft, trusting approach. The Micronesians
(RMI, FSM, Palau) seem un-engaged. It is the Polynesians
(Samoa, Cooks, Tonga) who are most actively concerned, along
with Australia and New Zealand.

TDS, Iraq, and visa issues
--------------

15. (C) Minister Tu'a informed us that, in a meeting May 2,
the Tonga Defense Board approved two more six-month TDS
deployments to Iraq, stretching the commitment to September

2009. Tu'a said the King's reaction was: "Of course the
soldiers want to deploy, not just be ceremonial. All
agreed?" All agreed. BG Uta'atu said the Board decision
includes a few caveats: continued USG training and logistical
support, plus a notice that, if a future U.S. President
starts withdrawing U.S. troops, Tonga can re-assess its own
commitment. (Note: a letter from Uta'atu reporting the
Board's decisions describes the latter caveat as: if the U.S.
"terminates" its commitment in Iraq; Tonga can do so as
well.) Uta'atu is clearly pleased with the Board's decision.
He continues to stress that the TDS commitment in Iraq is
only fitting, given the importance of being a good
international citizen and the fruitful relationship the TDS
has had with the U.S. military over many years.


16. (C) We sketched for Minister Tu'a, BG Uta'atu, and PM's
advisor Senituli the current state of play in Washington
regarding the Tonga Government's demand for USG visa services
on the ground as quid-pro-quo for TDS deployments to Iraq.
All were well aware that the Embassy sent a team to
Nuku'alofa in April to consider logistical details for a
pilot program to assess the capability of the Consular
Affairs (CA) "LNIV" portable system to meet Tonga's
requirements. All understand that the "pilot" is a "pilot,"
though Tu'a and others made clear, yet again, that the need
is for processing routine visa cases, not just elites, and in
reasonable numbers with reasonable frequency. Tu'a noted
that, from the Tonga Government's perspective, the refusal
rate is not an issue. Everyone realizes the refusal rate is
high and would remain high with adjudication on the ground;
but, Tu'a noted, at least those refused in Nuku'alofa would
pay only the visa-application fee, not the cost of an
expensive flight to Suva. Tu'a gave assurance that the Tonga
Government will cooperate, including by providing office
space and security if necessary.

Comment
--------------

17. (C) Pohiva and other pro-democracy PRs have been in
opposition so long that their instincts are to obstruct and
complain, even in victory. Elements in the Sevele Government
are inevitably inclined to try to find a way to limit the
future roles of the PRs, to create checks and balances that
protect royal and noble interests. The Government is laying
out plans to have a group of constitutional and electoral
"experts" come in to design the future political mechanism.
The U.S. message to all sides -- to Government, Pohiva,
Edwards, and Nobles -- was that, given the voters'
unmistakable choice for democratic reform, the best course is
to look forward, not back, to focus on the main game, not on
relatively minor issues (like whether the King gets to
appoint 2 or 4 MPs),and to plot the future course in a
transparent, inclusive manner. If bad faith enters the
equation, that can be addressed later; but for now the goal
ought to be to respond with good will to the people's
mandate. We also suggested that the Government really ought
to publicize the outreach from Sevele to Pohiva. By all
reports, the public remains restive after the election,
waiting to gauge how the Government responds.
DINGER