Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08STOCKHOLM857
2008-12-23 11:09:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Stockholm
Cable title:  

"EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED" DURING SWEDEN'S EU

Tags:  PREL PGOV INR EU SW 
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RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSM #0857/01 3581109
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 231109Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3999
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 STOCKHOLM 000857 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV INR EU SW
SUBJECT: "EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED" DURING SWEDEN'S EU
PRESIDENCY

REF: STOCKHOLM 792

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 STOCKHOLM 000857

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV INR EU SW
SUBJECT: "EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED" DURING SWEDEN'S EU
PRESIDENCY

REF: STOCKHOLM 792


1. (SBU) Summary: Sweden has about six months before it
assumes the EU presidency on July 1, 2009, but the government
is already in overdrive preparing policy goals and
restructuring governmental offices. EUR/ERA Director Bill
Lucas visited Stockholm on December 4-5 to discuss priorities
for the Swedish presidency with senior officials in the Prime
Minister,s office, the EU Minister,s Office, and the MFA.
All interlocutors listed the same Swedish priorities for the
presidency--climate change, EU enlargement, and asylum
issues--but are also aware that they have to "expect the
unexpected." End Summary.

WHO'S WHO: THE SWEDISH EU PRESIDENCY TEAM
--------------


2. (U) Drawing on lessons learned from its 2001 EU
presidency, Sweden restructured its internal EU presidency
bureaucracy, most importantly by bringing the Office of the
Minister for EU Affairs into the Prime Ministry.

-- Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt has overall
responsibility for Sweden's EU presidency. His State
Secretary for International Affairs, Gustaf Lind, is tasked
with setting inter-ministerial priorities, formulating policy
towards EU issues, organizing the PM's international
engagement, and preparing for EU summits.

-- Minister for EU Affairs Cecilia Malmstrom's office is led
by her State Secretary, Maria Asenius. Asenius told Lucas
her office is charged with the EU Treaty, long-term budget
issues, basic preparations for the presidency, and the
political leadership of horizontal EU issues including
employment strategies and legal issues. During the
presidency, Malmstrom will chair the General Affairs Council
and be Sweden's face before the European Parliament.

-- Both Reinfeldt and Malmstrom receive policy support from
the three-person Foreign and EU Affairs Division of the Prime
Minister's Office, headed by career diplomat Mikaela Kumlin
Granit.

-- The much larger EU Policy Coordination Unit in the Prime
Ministry is run by career civil servants and headed by
Ambassador Ingrid Hjelt af Trolle. It serves as a
secretariat, dealing with the daily coordination of EU work
and following general EU issues. It also leads interagency
coordination of EU-related matters and formulates policy on
EU issues and cross-ministry priorities, preparing, for

example, instructions for COREPER meetings. It is
responsible for interfacing with the Swedish public on EU
issues.

-- Finally, the MFA's EU Department handles EU-related
bilateral issues, including enlargement and reform and
assists the PM's Office in its preparations for European
Council meetings. The EU Correspondent Office within this
department coordinates the MFA's GAERC preparations and will
assist the PM's Office on issues related to the Common
Foreign and Security Policy.

PRIORITIES FOR THE SWEDISH PRESIDENCY
--------------


3. (SBU) The joint 18-month program of the French, Czech and
Swedish presidencies was formulated in May 2008, and Sweden
is now deciding which precise areas to highlight and what
specific goals it will strive for within the program, with
final decisions to be made in late spring 2009, Asenius said.
In 2001, Sweden focused on the "Three E's"--environment, EU
enlargement, and the economy. All of Lucas' interlocutors
stated that the 2009 objectives will likely be similar:
climate change, EU enlargement, and EU border, visa and
asylum policies.

-- Climate Change: Officials in the PM's office told Lucas
climate change will be PM Reinfeldt's top priority, with the
goal of reaching a binding international agreement at the
Copenhagen COP 15 scheduled for December 2009, near the end
of the Swedish presidency. Asenius said binding commitments
from the USG will be a top priority; Hjelt af Trolle
discussed the need to "give China something to bring it on
board." Most interlocutors bemoaned the fact that the
current financial crisis has led to a number of EU leaders
saying that they might not be able to afford the financial
investment required to meet EU emissions reduction goals.
Hjelt af Trolle and Lucas agreed that key elements should
involve clean-tech transfers and participation by India and
China to reduce carbon emissions.


STOCKHOLM 00000857 002 OF 003


-- Sweden will also develop an EU Baltic Sea Strategy,
drawing on and strengthening existing EU provisions. Kumlin
Granit described the Strategy as an "EU pilot program" for
dealing with problems sub-regionally, "because we have
problems here that they do not have, for example, in the
Mediterranean." The Strategy will seek to improve
environmental protections and increase economic development
through the harmonization of rules and regulations governing
trade and transportation among eight of nine Baltic states
that are EU members. The EU Commission is expected to
present a proposal by June, to be adopted by the European
Council before the end of the Swedish presidency. "Before,
the Baltic divided East and West," Granit told Lucas, "but
now it is an EU Sea."

-- EU Enlargement: Hjelt af Trolle said aspiring members have
high expectations for the Swedish presidency and the pace of
enlargement must be "kept up." Croatia will undergo intense
negotiations next year, even if it does not complete them
before the end of 2009. Sweden expects to deal with Turkey's
accession intentions as well, though "it is difficult to be a
friend of Turkey when we see so little progress," Asenius
said. Kumlin Granit added that Turkey's continued refusal to
open its ports to Greek Cypriot vessels is causing many in
the EU to consider sanctions rather than membership. If
Turkey makes little progress on the Ankara agreement, Sweden
will have an uphill battle to counter the resulting fallout
with key EU states, she added. The Eastern Partnership
Program (reftel),a Swedish-Polish initiative, is scheduled
to go into effect in March, but the Swedes anticipate having
an active role in its implementation during their presidency.

-- Asylum and Border issues: The Hague Program will end in
2009 and Sweden already has taken the lead within the EU to
develop a new five-year "Stockholm Program" that will aim to
further harmonize EU asylum and migration policies, leading
to a common European migration and asylum system. Asenius
said there is a need for greater emphasis on rights over
coercion and oppressive measures. Asenius noted there would
be room for U.S. cooperation under this program on law
enforcement, anti-trafficking, and anti-terrorism issues.


4. (SBU) Lucas emphasized the U.S. desire to coordinate
closely with the Swedish presidency to advance our mutual
goals, picking up in particular on the Swedish priorities
involving climate change and enlargement/outreach to the
Balkans and Eastern neighborhood. In the latter context, he
cited the need for U.S.-EU collaboration on relations with a
more assertive Russia. Lucas also flagged Afghanistan, Iraq,
Iran, Middle East peace, energy security, and the
Transatlantic Economic Council as areas for continued U.S.-EU
cooperation. Swedish interlocutors were open to these
suggestions, but several cited the global economic downturn
as a reason the EU/Swedish presidency might not be able to
adequately address regional security issues far out-of-area.
The Swedish officials were receptive to the idea of further
engagement in the Transatlantic Economic Council but
indicated that some member states feel a lack of ownership in
the process.

Expected Surprises
--------------


5. (SBU) Swedish interlocutors cautioned that a series of
externalities and institutional uncertainties will affect the
degree to which they can carry out their policy platforms.
MFA Security Director Nils Daag told Lucas that the Swedes,
in addition, are "expecting the unexpected" to re-order their
priorities.

-- Lisbon Treaty: The Swedes are planning for a presidency
under either the Nice or Lisbon Treaty. Current thinking is
the EU will present a legally binding declaration to Ireland
at the June 2009 meeting of the Council of Ministers that
alleviates Ireland's concerns over the Lisbon Treaty. If
this happens, a second Irish referendum likely would take
place in October during the Swedish presidency, with the
Lisbon Treaty taking affect during the latter half of the
presidency or, more likely, on January 1, 2010.

-- Lame Duck Commission: Under the current Nice Treaty, the
Commission President will be chosen during the Czech
presidency, and the Commission itself during the Swedish
presidency. Unless other extraordinary arrangements are
agreed, fewer commissioners than member states would have to
be elected, potentially causing internal strife. As the
Commission cannot propose legislation until it is fully
operational, the lack of an active Commission would
compromise Sweden's ability to push through legislation
related to its presidency objectives, according to Axel
Wernhoff of the MFA's European Division. In addition, the

STOCKHOLM 00000857 003 OF 003


European Parliament will be in the process of forming itself
after June 2009 elections and will then turn to reviewing
nominated Commissioners throughout the summer, said Wernhoff,
adding to the "institutional vacuum."

Upcoming Meetings
--------------


6. (U) During the Swedish presidency, there are plans to hold
EU summits with Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa,
Ukraine, and possibly Pakistan. The Swedes view the
traditional September UNGA margins as an opportunity to
schedule, as appropriate, U.S.-EU meetings at the Summit,
Ministerial, or other levels. In addition, PM Reinfeldt
hopes to travel to Washington early in 2009 to discuss
Sweden's EU priorities and especially climate change, with
President Obama and the new Administration.


7. (U) Mr. Lucas cleared this cable.
SILVERMAN