Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08STOCKHOLM848
2008-12-19 13:08:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Stockholm
Cable title:  

SWEDEN: OPPOSITION GEARS UP FOR 2010 ELECTION

Tags:  PGOV SW 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0849
OO RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSM #0848/01 3541308
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 191308Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3989
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000848 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2018
TAGS: PGOV SW
SUBJECT: SWEDEN: OPPOSITION GEARS UP FOR 2010 ELECTION

Classified By: CDA Robert Silverman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000848

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2018
TAGS: PGOV SW
SUBJECT: SWEDEN: OPPOSITION GEARS UP FOR 2010 ELECTION

Classified By: CDA Robert Silverman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

Summary
--------------


1. (C) The opposition Social Democrats (SDP),Green Party,
and Left Party (formerly the Communist Party) announced in
early December the formation of the &Red-Green Coalition8
for the 2010 parliamentary elections after weeks of intense
negotiations. In forming the first-ever coalition bloc
involving her party, SDP party leader Mona Sahlin is
attempting to find a balance between retaining left-leaning
SDP members and attracting back right-leaning SDP-deserters.
But bringing the Left Party into the coalition risks losing
SDP moderates. Elections are scheduled for September 2010
and the three parties have formed working groups to agree on
a common election platform by spring of that year. Swedish
voters now have a fairly clear choice between the ruling
center-right Alliance and the new "Red-Green" opposition.
End Summary.

The Opposition Forms its Own &Alliance8
--------------


2. (C) The four-party center-right coalition government,
known as the Alliance, dethroned the Social Democrats (SDP)
in 2006, gaining a seven-seat majority in Parliament on the
strength of its joint election manifesto that emphasized
jobs, tax relief, and economic growth. "The conservatives
were more Social Democrat than we were," said SDP
International Secretary Ann Linde to POL Counselor recently,
"and they stole 160,000 of our long-time supporters."


3. (U) On December 7, the SDP, Green and Left Parties
announced they would form a coalition with a joint election
manifesto to regain control of the Parliament and take over
the government in 2010. The SDPs have never entered into a
formal coalition before, instead ruling for 65 of the last 74
years as a single party government that was able, in most
cases, to gain support in Parliament from the Greens and the
Left Party. "This is a new phase in Swedish politics," SDP
leader Mona Sahlin told the press.


4. (C) The SDP is setting the conditions of coalition
membership, and Linde told us that the party,s
"non-negotiable demand" is that potential partners accept a
government budget ceiling that would preserve "Sweden,s
economic fundamentals." The Greens accepted the spending
limits and also had to abandon their position that Sweden

should leave the EU. The Left Party, eager to expand social
welfare programs cut by the current government, originally
refused to accept a budget ceiling. But after weeks of
wrangling and a SDP promise to consider higher taxes, Left
Party Leader Lars Ohly agreed to the budget ceiling, calling
it "the price we have to pay."

Why'd She Bring in the Communists?
--------------


5. (C) For the past year, SDP leader Sahlin was trying to
move to the political center, according to Linde, in an
effort to capture the votes of the 160,000 former SDP
supporters who abandoned the party in 2006 and voted for the
Alliance. Bringing the Greens on board in the late summer
caused few frictions within the party "because we are all
Greens today," Linde added -- though several SDP MPs
subsequently told us that taking in the Greens has further
alienated the SDP core among Sweden,s industrial unions in
the North, where the Greens are despised because of their
opposition to logging and mining and their support for higher
taxes on gasoline.


6. (C) By bringing in the Left, Sahlin risks alienating the
centrist SDP voters, and pleasing only the SDP,s leftist and
labor factions, for whom the Left Party still provides an
"ideological anchor," according to Linde. Many of these SDP
supporters cast their ballots for the Left Party on election
day to ensure that "Comrade 4%" stays in Parliament, Linde
added, alluding to the need for a party to garner at least 4%
of the national vote in order to be represented in the
legislature. The Greens are also not at all happy with
having the Left on board; Jakob Dalunde of the Green Party
Youth told poloffs on December 15 that the union was "a
mistake for the Left and us."


7. (C) Sahlin finds herself in a difficult balancing game,
trying to keep the left and right bookends on the SDP shelf.
She is widely perceived as performing poorly at this task,
Linde admitted, noting that polls show Sahlin's own
popularity dropping while that of Prime Minister Fredrik
Reinfeldt rises. As for the governing Alliance, contacts
tell us they welcome the Left joining the opposition camp,
because with the Left influencing the agenda, voters will

STOCKHOLM 00000848 002 OF 002


have two very clear alternatives in front of them. Our
Alliance interlocutors think that most voters will reject the
strong swing to the left that the opposition bloc will likely
be forced to take.

Polls
--------------


8. (C) Although historical odds favor the SDP in most
elections, Sahlin,s coalition-building efforts may not be
helping the cause. Moderate Party political advisor Johan
Lindahl told us recently that internal party polling suggests
a much closer race than polls conducted by news
organizations. The SDP's Linde agrees, noting that SDP
internal polling shows only a 6% advantage for the opposition
parties over the ruling Alliance ) "and all our voters are
mobilized right now, while theirs are asleep."

How Will Economic Downturn Affect Government's Popularity?
-------------- --------------


9. (C) With major Swedish companies laying off workers, the
Left's (and Greens') demand for higher taxes is not
necessarily election-winning rhetoric. While the Left seems
to be the only party realizing that a tax increase is
necessary to finance the reinstatement and investment of
welfare reforms, Ohly's political style is not so much
influenced by consensus making as dictating.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) To regain Parliament in 2010, Sahlin needs to
recapture centrist SDP voters who supported the center-right
Alliance two years ago. But by bringing in the Greens, she
upsets the Northerners, and by bringing in the Left, she
upsets the centrists. The big unknown is how the three
parties will agree on an overall joint policy. The Red-Green
Coalition might not last through 2009.
SILVERMAN