Swedish Environment Minister on Prospects for Poznan/COP-14

UNCLAS STOCKHOLM 000786


E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SENV ENRG KGHG SW
SUBJECT: Swedish Environment Minister on Prospects for Poznan/COP-14
and Beyond


1. (U) Summary. At a November 20 lunch hosted by Ambassador Wood
for Swedish Environment Minister Andreas Carlgren, the two agreed
that the focus of COP-14 next month should be to establish an
ambitious work program for 2009, rather than attempting to reach
consensus on any future carbon emissions reduction figures. In a
relaxed and wide-ranging conversation, the Ambassador and the
Minister discussed the status of the upcoming COP-14/Poznan and
COP-15/Copenhagen international climate change talks, whether France
would be able to pass the EU Climate Change and Energy Package
during its EU Presidency, and Carlgren's views on the climate talks'
working group chairs. Carlgren also stressed the Swedish desire to
continue our One Big Thing partnership. End Summary.


2. (U) On November 20, Carlgren came to the Ambassador's residence
for lunch, accompanied by Environment State Secretary Asa-Britt
Karlsson; Climate Ambassador Staffan Tillander; and Chief of Staff
Tomas Uddin.


3. (U) On prospects for COP-14, Carlgren said that when the Ad Hoc
Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA) meets for
its fourth session in conjunction with Poznan, he anticipates that
its current Vice Chair, Michael Zammit Cutajar (Malta),will be
named Chair. Carlgren commented that Zammit Cutajar is considered
to be much more collegial and constructive than the current Chair,
Luiz Figueiredo Machado (Brazil). Carlgren added that a new Chair
of the Ad Hoc Working Group under the Kyoto Protocol is also
expected to be named at Poznan, replacing current Chair Harald
Dovland (Norway). Carlgren's Climate Ambassador Staffan Tillander
said that Dovland's replacement, whose name has not yet been made
public, is an individual who is widely expected to work well with
Zammit Cutajar, the new AWG-LCA chair. Carlgren concluded that once
these leadership changes are in place, the two new Chairs "will need
to be given a mandate to present a work plan for 2009."


4. (U) Carlgren commented that "Poznan is not the time for
numerical debate on 2020 targets." Sweden's main strategy for
Poznan is "for the EU to be non-confrontational with the U.S." and
to emerge from these international climate change negotiations in
mid-December with "an ambitious work program for 2009, so that
negotiations can begin as soon as possible and culminate in COP-15
in Copenhagen in December 2009." Carlgren added that Poznan should
be viewed by all parties "as a working group effort towards
understanding each country's individual position and establishing an
international agreement at COP-15." According to Carlgren, this
would also be a more consistent approach, given the interim nature
of the current U.S. Administration and potential future progress on
cap-and-trade issues in Congress. The Ambassador stated that such
views closely mirrored those of Under Secretary of State for Global
Affairs Paula Dobriansky, who will lead the U.S. delegation in
Poznan.


5. (U) Carlgren stressed the need for lesser-developed countries to
feel trust in the U.S. He added that the substantial U.S.
contribution to the World Bank-administered Clean Tech Fund gives
the U.S. credibility with LDCs. Carlgren added that the U.S. --
both at Poznan and with the new Obama Administration -- must show
some action on climate change lest developing nations use American
reticence as an excuse to avoid making their own commitments. The
Ambassador thanked Carlgren for the Swedish government's recent
announcement of a $100 million contribution to the CTF, commenting
that this demonstrates Sweden's strong leadership on climate change
issues.


6. (U) Carlgren elaborated on the role Sweden can play in getting
China to commit to future post-2012 international agreement. He was
clearly proud that Vice Chairman Xie, the Chinese Vice Minister and
Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, who is
very active on the climate issue, who is very active on the climate
issue, will visit Sweden December 7-8, 2008 en route to Poznan. The
Chinese are well-aware of their need to reduce emissions for 2050
targets, as well as of how difficult this will be for their economy,
per Carlgren. He compared China with the U.S., saying that "in both
countries, once you make an international commitment, you stand by
it. Here in Europe, we often sign agreements, but don't fully
enforce them. In China and the U.S., reaching agreement might take
a long time, but once they get there, you can count on them."


7. (U) Minister Carlgren suggested that there was a "trust" issue
when it came to U.S. ratification of climate change treaties, based
on the Kyoto Protocol, which the U.S. signed under the Clinton
Administration but never sent to the Senate for ratification.
Carlgren also gave the example of the Montreal Protocol as a
potential model for "a post-2012 climate change deal, because
Montreal involved a framework agreement followed by more technical
arrangements." He stated that the outcome of COP-15 may be a
framework for continued progress, with countries able to add to the
treaty. The Minister said that the type of cap-and-trade system
selected in the U.S. would have a significant impact on the tone of
discussion at COP-15, adding that any proactive U.S. efforts in this
area would be seen positively throughout the world, especially by
the Chinese, "who will be waiting to see the U.S. stance prior to
any movement on their own position."


8. (U) Minister Carlgren noted that the EU Prime Ministers will
hold parallel European Council meetings December 11-12 during
COP-14, and that this should positively impact the outcome at
Poznan. The Minister praised the Ambassador's 'One Big Thing'
alternative energy initiative, stating, "It is so important to
continue to develop what we started here during your tenure."
Minister Carlgren urged continued contact between the next
Administration in Washington, the U.S. Embassy in Stockholm, and his
Ministry on the full range of climate change issues.

WOOD