Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08STOCKHOLM695
2008-10-20 10:06:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Stockholm
Cable title:  

SWEDISH SOC DEM LEADER AHLIN ON BELARUS,

Tags:  PGOV PREL SW IR BO GG RS AF 
pdf how-to read a cable
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3811
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000695 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL SW IR BO GG RS AF
SUBJECT: SWEDISH SOC DEM LEADER AHLIN ON BELARUS,
AFGHANISTAN AND IRAN

Classified By: DCM ROBERT SILVERMAN FOR REASONS 1.4 (B AND D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000695

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL SW IR BO GG RS AF
SUBJECT: SWEDISH SOC DEM LEADER AHLIN ON BELARUS,
AFGHANISTAN AND IRAN

Classified By: DCM ROBERT SILVERMAN FOR REASONS 1.4 (B AND D)


1. (C) Summary: On October 15, Urban Ahlin, the foreign
policy spokesman of the opposition Social Democrats told DCM
and POL counselor:

-- On Afghanistan, he is working to cement Social Democratic
support for the Government,s bill to expand troops, but it
will be a "tough ride" for the bill.
-- On Iran, Bildt is opposed to EU unilateral sanctions
primarily because he wants to try to broker a deal resolving
the Iranian nuclear problem. (Comment: Bildt and Ahlin are
rivals, and the Swedish Government has other reasons for
opposing unilateral sanctions.)
-- On Belarus, he believes the government itself was
surprised by the 100% win in parliamentary elections, which
he attributes to election authorities acting independently in
Homo Sovieticus mode. End Summary.

Belarus
--------------


2. (C) Ahlin, who was in Belarus as an OSCE election monitor
during the September 28 parliamentary elections, said the
Belorussians themselves were surprised at how "badly" the
elections went. To have none of the 110 seats go to
opposition candidates looked "embarrassing." Ahlin said he
asked repeatedly to be able to observe the vote count, even
though he knew -- and his contacts in the Belarus MFA said
they knew -- that the actual counting was irrelevant. "One
could see from the organized lines of soldiers and students
coming to the election center at set times that the votes had
ready been decided" before the actual ballots were cast. In
all, 40 percent of monitors were not allowed to watch the
vote counting, he asserted. The MFA expressed "genuine
surprise" that the Election Commission "had not received the
message from the top" about allowing observers at the ballot
counting, said Ahlin, who wondered aloud whether the problem
lay with local election officials who grew up in Soviet times.


3. (C) Despite the election outcome, Ahlin stated it was
good that the EU had lifted visa restrictions on a temporary
basis, because Minsk has still not recognized the
independence of the breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South

Ossetia, although he expected Belarus to do so soon, noting
the recent Putin visit to Minsk. Ahlin commented that
"Russia,s strategic thinking is clear to me: an unambiguous
message about their sphere of influence in the Near Abroad."
Still, the Russians are "in shock" about the international
reaction to the invasion of Georgia, "shocked that they are
so alone."

Afghanistan
--------------


4. (C) Ahlin said it will be a "tough ride" within the
opposition camp, and within his own Social Democratic party,
to build support for the parliamentary bill extending the
Swedish presence in ISAF in 2009. (Comment: MFA is currently
putting finishing touches on the draft legislation, which is
scheduled to be submitted to Parliament on October 23.
Interlocutors tell us that a modest troop increase from the
current 375 is possible, perhaps to the 410-450 range.)
"Personally, I am a little bit nervous about passage of the
bill," he stated, noting that within the party there was an
active debate over when Swedes would know they had been
successful in Afghanistan and how to define victory. Despite
the debate, Ahlin pointed out that his party is on record as
supportive of more troops for Afghanistan and for closing
down Sweden,s contributions to the Kosovo mission. Much
will depend on the position of Lena Hjelm-Wallen, the head of
the Swedish-Afghanistan Committee and a senior leader on the
left wing of the Social Democratic Party; "she is the
strongest friend and ally that we could have on the question
of continuing our presence in Afghanistan," Ahlin said,
adding that as long as Hjelm-Wallen is in favor, it will be
"helpful" for those of us that want to stay there.

Tensions within the Opposition
--------------


5. (C) Ahlin commented that the left-right debates within
the Social Democratic Party "have really heated up" over the
question the Lisbon Treaty, Afghanistan, Swedish labor law,
and the participation of the Left Party in the opposition
camp. "Of course now that we are in opposition, everything
the government does is wrong," he stated. "If we were in
government, we would clearly support an increase of troops in
Afghanistan."

STOCKHOLM 00000695 002 OF 002



Iran
--------------


6. (C) We asked Ahlin why Sweden seems to be against EU
sanctions on Iran, Ahlin stated that Foreign Minister Carl
Bildt has become "seized" with the matter, seeking out
briefings on Iran and meeting quietly with Iranian officials.
"He thinks he can work a deal," Ahlin speculated, noting
that serving as a mediator on Iran would enhance Bildt,s
stature in his campaign to replace Solana. Pressed further,
Ahlin recalled Bildt,s fascination in working with Iranians,
for instance when he and Bildt both met FM Mottaki in
Stockholm last year.


7. (C) Comment: Ahlin,s speculation about Bildt,s personal
motivations for opposing unilateral sanctions on Iran is
interesting, but not the last word. Bildt and his deputy
Belfrage (see septel) frame their opposition in terms of
skepticism on the effectiveness of unilateral sanctions
outside the UN system. Ahlin and Bildt collaborate
frequently behind the scenes, but are also rivals and
critical of each other in public.
WOOD