TFGG001: DEMARCHE DELIVERED--SWEDEN CONDEMNS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000571

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL GG RU SW
SUBJECT: TFGG001: DEMARCHE DELIVERED--SWEDEN CONDEMNS
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE INTO GEORGIA

REF: STATE 87254

Classified By: CDA ROBERT SILVERMAN FOR REASONS 1.4 (B & D)


1. (C) Summary: A senior Swedish MFA official told poloff the
EU is divided into two camps and the French have watered-down
the GAERC conclusion. Unless the situation in Georgia
worsens, the EU is unlikely to offer a stronger statement
until after Sept. 6, when the foreign ministers will meet
informally. Sweden wants international peacekeepers and
observers to replace the Russian "peacekeepers" and will
press the EU to send a mission. Current thinking is to use
Sweden's chairmanship of the Council of Europe (until Nov.
2008) to mobilize support to kick Russia our of the Council
of Europe. End summary.

Scuttlebutt on the Cease Fire Agreement
--------------


2. (C) On August 14, poloff delivered reftel demarche to
Johan Frisell (strictly protect),Head of the Eastern
European Section of the MFA. He is one of the MFA's main
interlocutors in the Georgia-Russia conflict and attended the
GAERC on August 12. According to Frisell, Sarkozy's 16-hour
trip to Moscow and Georgia was a carefully orchestrated
routine that resulted in the "Sarkozy Show." Although the
cease-fire agreement was not ready after the 16 hours, France
wanted a success story and prematurely announced such. The
result was a flawed document with which many EU countries
have taken issue.


3. (C) Frisell said the French Chairman did not want to
include the second paragraph of the first Council Conclusion
that mentions sovereignty and territorial integrity. Sarkozy
likely agreed in Moscow to exclude this language, said
Frisell. Also, principle five of the agreement can be read
to give Russia the right to take military action, "implement
additional security measures," in Georgia for an undetermined
amount of time. Certain EU states, including Sweden, Frisell
said, scrambled to insert a modifying paragraph that included
"the international mechanism should be set up rapidly." As
it currently is written, the international mechanism is
poorly defined.

EU Split
--------------


4. (C) Frisell said there are two camps in the EU. One
camp's overriding priority is to stop the suffering and
ensure the cease fire is respected, that it is too early to
judge or blame and the EU cannot appear biased. Members
include Malta, Cyprus, France, Germany, Ireland and the
Netherlands. The other camp says Georgia made mistakes, but
the overriding concern is that Russia launched a full-scale
invasion of a sovereign nation in violation of international
commitments. Without a strong statement against Russian
action, Russia gains legitimacy for its actions. Members
include England, Belgium, Sweden, Denmark, the Baltic states,
Slovenia, Slovakia and Bulgaria.


5. (SBU) Frisell said unless the situation worsens, the EU is
unlikely to come out with another declaration until after
Sept. 6, when the EU foreign ministers will meet informally
in Avignon to discuss EU-Russia relations. This meeting will
assess the consequences of Russia's actions and discuss
possible reactions; no decision will be made on the EU's
response at this time.

Swedish support for Peacekeepers and Observers
-------------- -


6. (SBU) Frisell said peacekeeping was not discussed on the
13th. Sweden supports international observers and
peacekeepers, but they must operate in all of Abkhazia and
South Ossetia and replace Russian "peacekeepers." Sweden is
adamant that some must come from organizations in which
Russia does not have a veto, such as the EU. Sweden has
received indications that Russia is willing to increase OSCE
observers from 8 to 108. Military peacekeepers will be
harder for Russia to accept, thus it is a good idea to start
an international presence with civilian monitors or police.
Sweden is looking into how to propose this to the EU.

Sweden's Next Steps
--------------


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7. (C) Sweden will state its position regardless of the EU's,
said Frisell. Sweden, as Chair of the Council of Europe,
will seek to solicit support from other Council of Europe
members against Russia and in the next few months attempt to
vote Russia out. This is still in early planning stages, but
is a current goal of FM Bildt.


9. (U) Sweden's Advisory Council on Foreign Affairs, attended
by the King, is convening on Aug. 18 to discuss the
Georgia-Russia conflict. The Council only convenes when
major Swedish policy decisions have been made to ensure that
all political parties have the opportunity to voice their
opinions. It is classified and does not make policy. It
last convened in March of this year when Sweden publicly
recognized Kosovo's independence.
SILVERMAN