U.S.-SWEDEN PLAN WAY FORWARD FOR ABKHAZIA CONFLICT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000452

SIPDIS

EUR FOR NB, CARC, AND RUS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC UNMIK PBTS PINR KO RS GG XQ
SW
SUBJECT: U.S.-SWEDEN PLAN WAY FORWARD FOR ABKHAZIA CONFLICT

REF: STATE 62452

Classified By: A/DCM ROBET HILTON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) & (D).


1. (U) Participants:

U.S.
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Matthew Bryza, EUR Deputy Assistant Secretary
Michael Carpenter, Conflicts Advisor
Casey Christensen, Political Counselor
Briana Olsen, Deputy Political Counselor (notetaker)

Sweden
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Carl Bildt, Foreign Minister
Frank Belfrage, State Secretary
Bjorn Lyrvall, Political Director
Diana Janse, Political Advisor


2. (C) Summary: On June 10, EUR DAS Bryza met with Swedish FM
Carl Bildt and other officials to develop a plan of action to
de-escalate tensions between Georgia and Russia over
Abkhazia. They discussed how Germany is complicating the
peace process by requiring that every step, including such
matters as EU High Representative Solana,s June 6 visit to
Sukhumi, be cleared in advance with Moscow. Bildt and Bryza
also agreed on the importance of the U.S. and EU showing a
unified front in calling for Russia to de-escalate its
military posture in Abkhazia. They discussed future steps,
such as developing a joint Abkhaz-Georgian police force with
European advisors and/or monitors and the possibility of
holding future meetings between the Georgians and Abkhaz in
Sweden. End summary.

EU Responses to the Conflict
--------------


3. (C) Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt told EUR DAS
Matthew Bryza that it is difficult to secure European
consensus on reviving the Abkhazia peace process as many EU
members are non-committal over Abkhazia, for fear of angering
Russia; Germany, France and the United Kingdom are retarding
and complicating the conflict resolution process by being
overly sensitive to Moscow,s concerns. Solana, according to
Bildt, is "on-board" as long as Saakashvili does not go on
the offensive. Political Director Lyrvall said EU support
for Georgia and plans for peace were conditional on having
next steps rooted within the UN Friends framework. Bildt
suggested that the EU needed to be more proactive and take up
the issue of visa facilitation for Abkhaz holding Russian
passports, who currently have an easier time receiving visas
than Abkhaz (or Georgians) traveling on Georgian passports.
Bryza and Bildt agreed that the EU had to take a more
forceful stand against the argument articulated by Russian
officials, such as Mironov and Kenyakin, that Russia could
use military force to protect its citizens in Abkhazia. How
would the EU react, Bildt asked rhetorically, if the Serbs
used the same argument for their citizens in Mitrovica?


4. (C) Bildt said Saakashvili is obsessed with Abkhazia, and
believes the Russians will attack the Kodori Valley this
summer with the paratroopers currently stationed near
Tkvarcheli, which in turn would block Georgia's future
ability to defend Abkhazia. He said Saakashvili might
therefore be planning to mount a pre-emptive attack on these
Russian forces from the Kodori Valley. In Lyrvall's opinion,
Saakashvili believes the Russians sent additional troops to
Abkhazia to scuttle the potential for a NATO MAP offer to
Georgia in December, with Medvedev telling Saakashvili
bluntly that there would be no movement towards a resolution
of the conflict until Georgia,s NATO aspirations were
&taken off the table.8

Calming the Russians
--------------


5. (C) Bryza and Bildt agreed that the West must calm down
the Georgians and create a unified front towards Russia.
Bildt suggested that, if needed, the West could play the card
of the Sochi Olympics by announcing the potential dangers of
hosting the Olympics a hundred kilometers from an unresolved,
potentially violent conflict. Such a play could link
Russia's violation of international law to its role as the
Olympic host. Bildt doubted the International Olympic
Committee would do anything, but believes the threat of

STOCKHOLM 00000452 002 OF 002


embarrassment might push Russia to back down. Additionally,
Bildt said, the West might get Russia's attention by applying
travel and/or economic sanctions on foreign entities
financially benefiting from business dealings with
unrecognized and unregistered entities based in Abkhazia.

Swedish candidate for UN Chief Military Officer
-------------- ---


6. (C) Bildt told Bryza that Sweden would nominate a
candidate to replace the UN Chief Military Officer in
Abkhazia, General Khattak (Pakistan),who is leaving his post
later this year. Sweden was counting on U.S. and European
support for its candidate.

Action Plan
--------------


7. (C) Bryza and Bildt formulated the following action plan:

-- The Swedes, Balts, Poles and Czechs immediately will talk
to Saakashvili to urge him not to demand that CIS
peacekeepers leave Abkhazia.

-- Begin discussions to develop a joint Abkhaz-Georgian
police force with international (European and/or UN) oversight

-- Plan a series of meetings between Georgian and Abkhazian
leaders, subsequent to the June 16 meeting in Stockholm
organized by a Swedish-American academic;


7. (U) This cable was cleared by Conflicts Advisor Mike
Carpenter.
WOOD