THE U.S.-ISRAEL JOINT POLITICAL MILITARY GROUP

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 STATE 041023

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2028
TAGS: IS MARR MCAP PINS PREL
SUBJECT: THE U.S.-ISRAEL JOINT POLITICAL MILITARY GROUP
(JPMG)

Classified By: PM Acting A/S Stephen D. Mull, Reasons 1.4(b)(d)

Summary:

1. (C) The thirty-ninth meeting, and first in two years, of
the U.S.-Israel Joint Political Military Group (JPMG) took
place in Washington on March 20, 2008. Co-chairmen were
Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Political Military
Affairs Stephen D. Mull and Israeli Ministry of Defense (MOD)
Director General Pinchas Buchris. Topics included a Regional
Security Update, Pakistan and Russia Security Issues, Iraq
and Afghanistan Security Issues, Israel Export Control
Changes and Technology Strategic Overview, Iraq Security
Update, Regional Security Analysis, Prospective Middle East
Arms Transfers, Cluster Munitions, Missile and Rocket
Defense, and Joint Security Assistance Planning. End Summary.

Regional Security:

2. (S) MOD Pol-Mil Director Amos Gilad delivered Israel's
detailed presentation on regional security, covering
(specific details below) Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt,
Iran, and touching on other Middle East countries. NEA DAS
Robert Danin provided the U.S. response.

Palestine:

3. (S) On Palestine, Gilad said that the Palestinian
Authority (PA) was committed to a two-state solution, and
that the GOI was working with Abu Mazen and Abu Alaa, as well
as with the "three generals" (Dayton, Jones, and Fraser) to
meet Roadmap obligations. He said Israel was supporting the
development of the Palestinian Authority Security Forces
(PASF) and mentioned that Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak
has been personally involved. However, the PA had lost Gaza,
he said, and now Israel's "mood is changing quickly." The
rocket attacks emanating from Gaza are intolerable, and "if
no solution is found, we will find one," he said, implying a
military solution. He claimed that Hamas has 1000 Grad
rockets that have come from Lebanon, through Egypt, and into
Gaza.


4. (S) Danin replied that the U.S. remained committed to the
President's June 24, 2002 vision of peace, which the GOI
endorsed. The U.S. is actively engaged in Palestinian
security efforts, which, in our estimation, underscored
Israel's security. He lauded Israel's support for the PASF
and stressed the need for Israel to facilitate their movement
and access in order to enable their success.

Lebanon:

5. (S) On Lebanon, Gilad delivered a harsh assessment:
"(United Nations Security Council Resolution) 1701 is an
empty suit! 'Hizballah-stan' has 42,000 rockets(there are
no borders between Syria and Lebanon." Gilad said that
Lebanon "did not really exist;" Syria did not recognize it,
at any rate, and Israel considered "Syria and Hizballah-stan
as one unit, together with the IRGC," referring to the
Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps. He warned that this was
no longer just a terrorist entity, but a military entity,
complete with rockets from the Syrian army. "Lebanon is a
weak republic," he said, and the Government of Lebanon (GOL),
he noted, existed on paper only. Syria was trying to take
over all of Lebanon, either through political assassinations
or payoffs.


6. (S) Danin noted that the U.S. had a different view, and
took exception to the idea of UNSCR 1701 as an "empty suit."
Danin said that 1701 had brought an end to the 2006 war in
Lebanon, and had brought about improvements on the ground,
such as the deployment of the Lebanese Army throughout the
country. He agreed that 1701 was not being fulfilled, but
stated our commitment to work with UNIFIL, whose performance
south in Lebanon, in conjunction with the Lebanese Armed
Forces, had improved over previous years. Danin also noted
that Gilad had now identified Syria as the main culprit in
Lebanon, whereas in 2006 Israel went out of its way during
the war to assure Syria of no hostile intent. Danin said the
U.S. was appreciative of Siniora's fortitude - that the GOL
was not a government on paper only. It had withstood
multiple challenges from challengers such as Hizballah.
Still, Lebanon was paralyzed, and the U.S. shared Israel's
assessment that Syria was attempting to take it back. The
U.S. was trying to s
trengthen the GOL and create space for it to solve its
problems. But we counted on international support. Danin

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said that there is no tradeoff between democracy and
stability, and that "democracy is not something we do to
countries, but rather something we do with countries."

Syria:

7. (S) Gilad's remarks on Syria, aside from those regarding
its involvement in Lebanese affairs, included several
conciliatory elements. He said that, despite Bashar al
Assad's violent nature, the Syrian President was committed to
the peace option. Danin countered that the U.S. had a harder
line than Israel. Syria, he said, was entrenched in a battle
to preserve its regime, to resist the tribunal in New York,
and to seek hegemony over Lebanon. He said that Syria wanted
the peace "process" with Israel in order to break out of
isolation, but said we were not convinced that Syria wants to
conclude the deal.

Egypt:

8. (S) Gilad said Israel's assessment of Egypt is bipolar.
On the one hand, Israel sees the strategic peace with Egypt
as vitally important. On the other, it views Egypt as
problematic. Gilad shared his belief that the Government of
Egypt (GOE) is on tenuous footing. Democratic elections in
Egypt would result in a victory for the Muslim Brotherhood,
so the regime must guard its stability. But it cannot push
the envelope too far, and that has created problems for
Israel along the Egypt-Gaza border. He said Egypt will
always act to interdict an act of terror near Eilat, but is
unwilling to stop the flow of weapons and Hamas operatives
across the border with Gaza. Gilad believed this was the
GOE's way of keeping Hamas from focusing its contrition on
Egypt. Finally, he mentioned that Egypt's army posed a
threat to Israel's qualitative military edge. (COMMENT:
Gilad may have been laying a marker against increased future
FMF levels for Egypt. Egypt's FMF stayed constant at $1.3
billion for FY09, while Isr
ael's increased to $2.55 billion as part of the new,
ten-year, $30 billion FMF memorandum of understanding
beginning in FY09. END COMMENT.)


9. (S) Danin noted that Egypt is trying to advance a process
for solving the Gaza border crisis. He said that
unfortunately Israel and Egypt do not have a shared view of
what should be done with Gaza, and the problems were
derivative of that. He was encouraged by Gilad's frequent
trips to Egypt, saying "you need to engage." The U.S. has
offered to help, but our offer has not been accepted to date.
Danin assured Gilad that our offer nonetheless remained on
the table.

Iran:

10. (S) On Iran, Gilad said Israel is confident that Tehran
remains determined to proceed with its nuclear plan. It is
not frozen, as the USG's National Intelligence Estimate
claimed, and -- as evidenced by the elections the previous
week -- the conservatives in Iran are getting stronger.
Danin said that the U.S. shared Israel's concern, and for
that reason we were keeping pressure on Iran both
unilaterally and with the international community through
such efforts as new UNSC and other sanctions.

Middle East:

11. (S) Continuing his whirlwind tour of the rest of the
region, Gilad expressed great respect for Jordan: "state of
the art in intelligence, with a loyal army, protecting
against al Qaeda." He praised King Abdullah for enforcing
his borders. Gilad had less positive remarks on Saudi
Arabia, which he claimed was "keeping a nuclear option" and
had a stockpile of missiles from China. He believed the U.S.
was not fully aware of Israel's strong, sophisticated
strategic relationship with Turkey. On Iraq, Gilad said that
post-Saddam Iraq no longer posed a strategic threat to
Israel. His summation consisted of the good news that Israel
still enjoyed a relatively convenient strategic environment.
Iran was not yet nuclear, Israel had peace agreements with
Egypt and Jordan, and Libya and Syria appeared to have given
up their nuclear ambitions. For these reasons, Gilad said
Israel still had an opportunity to contribute to a better
future for the Middle East, with the help of the U.S. But he
warned that we were bo
th running out of time.

Pakistan, Russia:

12. (S) The U.S. delegation gave presentations on U.S. policy
in Pakistan, Russia, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
Pakistan/Bangladesh Office Director Richard Sacks provided a
briefing on our growing engagement with Pakistan, including
counterterrorism cooperation and arms sales. Russia Office

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Director Ian Kelly reviewed how Russia was not going in a
good direction. The USG was most concerned with the
recentralization of authority in Putin, and remained
skeptical that Medvedev will be able to exert influence as
president over PM Putin when all the latter's loyalists would
still see Putin in such a visible role. The USG continued to
monitor Russia's military spending, which has quadrupled
since 2001 but still remains a low two-percent of Russia's
GDP. Kelly added that Russia's ties with Iran go back to the
early 1990s, and that the U.S. did not oppose civilian
nuclear cooperation - not least because it strengthens the
USG argument that Iran does not need its own enrichment
program. The USG was still concerned, ho
wever, over Russian arms sales to Iran, including the SA-15
and potentially S300 missiles, which would significantly
upgrade Iran's air defense posture.

Afghanistan, Iraq:

13. (S) Afghan Office Deputy Director Timothy Wilder reviewed
the "many successes, but not success" that we have had in
Afghanistan. He noted progress on reconstruction, security,
democracy, and governance that have separated the people from
the enemy and helped connect them with their government. He
said that a donors' conference in June will hopefully lead to
new pledges for Afghanistan. DAS/D Mark Kimmitt and NEA DAS
Larry Butler provided a joint presentation on Iraq. Kimmitt
reviewed the "surge" progress and General Petraeus' desire
not to prejudge the outcome or commit too early to a troop
withdrawal. Kimmitt also spoke about the long-term
U.S.-Iraqi strategic relationship, including ongoing
negotiations over a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA). A/SD
Mary Beth Long characterized the SOFA as the natural
institutionalization of a permanent military-military
relationship with Iraq that will require some form of U.S.
presence. Butler spoke about Iraq's progress on some of the
18 benchmarks, including
the debaathification law, provincial powers law, the budget,
and the amnesty law.

Export Control Reform/Technology Sharing:

14. (S) Eli Pincu and Danyshai Korenblot led the GOI
presentation on Export Control Reform and Technology Sharing.
Pincu noted that the Israeli Defense Export Control Act and
associated regulations took effect on December 31, 2007. The
new law was passed in fulfillment of a mandate contained in
the Statement of Understanding (SOU) signed by SecDef and his
GOI counterpart in August 2005. Mull noted Israel's
significant strides in establishing a viable export control
process, principally in response to technology diversions to
China, but remarked that more work is necessary to
successfully implement the regulations. Mull noted that
State will continue to watch with interest as Israel's
commitment to implementation is demonstrated by the level of
resources it allocates to the Defense Export Control
Directorate (DECD). He also offered continued U.S. support
to the enforcement and compliance effort, including help in
arranging DHS/ICE investigative training for Israeli law
enforcement newly charged with such
duties. Building on a discussion of China in the smaller
executive session that preceded the full JPMG, Mull asked
whether the USG was seeing all the relevant exports under the
new regulatory system. Pincu said he believed so and
expressed confidence that it "is a good system." Replying to
USG inquiries regarding the treatment of brokers under the
new system, GOI representative Gideon Meretz noted that,
while the law addresses brokering, its implementation remains
pending and contingent on a final decision at senior levels
in GOI Departments. The GOI expressed a desire to eliminate
the need for providing detailed information on its licensing
activities and export controls in future JPMG presentations,
noting the ongoing DOD-led export control working group.
Mull replied that State has a continuing interest in leading
discussions on export controls and technology transfer
issues, and that the preferred forum for such engagement
should remain at the JPMG level.

Prospective Arms Transfers:

15. (C) Mull led the session on proposed weapons sales to the
Middle East. He reiterated longstanding USG commitment to
Israel's Qualitative Military Edge (QME),and outlined the
decision to enhance the air and missile defense capabilities
of the UAE through the proposed sale of THAAD, SL-AMRAAM and
AVENGER systems. The sales were framed as a continuation of
Secretary Gates' vision of a shared early warning network

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linking the Gulf countries to guard against current and
future regional threats. The two sides reviewed the
consultations for more than a year on various weapons systems
proposed for sale under GSD, but the GOI was miffed it did

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not receive a non-paper as it had at the past two JPMGs. The
U.S. side said it was moving away from such a non-paper
because of the sensitivity of such discussions, but agreed to
a meeting with State, OSD, and GOI Embassy representatives as
soon as possible to review these matters. (NOTE: PM DAS
Ruggiero led this meeting on March 28, which allowed both
sides to discuss
the process and undertake a more in-depth review of specific
arms transfers. END NOTE.)

Cluster Munitions:

16. (C) Mull and Buchris co-led the discussion on Cluster
Munitions, which Buchris described as "our #1 issue." Mull
noted new U.S. legislative constraints that prohibit the sale
of cluster munitions with tested reliability rates below 99%.
Throughout the discussion, GOI representatives characterized
this legislation as a severe problem for Israeli readiness
and capability, especially if the legislation was applied to
U.S.-owned cluster stockpiles pre-positioned in the event of
a crisis. USG officials noted initial assessments that the
current legislation would prevent the transfer of the
pre-positioned munitions because they fail to meet the
mandated reliability rate, but undertook to follow up with
further consultations in the near future.


17. (S) GOI officials provided a thorough briefing on ongoing
reform efforts following its use of cluster munitions during
the summer 2006 conflict with Hizballah. They noted that
these reform efforts accorded with the IDF's internal
investigation and the Winograd Report, separately addressing:
command and control; HQ directives on use; training and
exercises; and updated documentation and manuals. In early
February 2008, the GOI provided additional details to UNIFIL
on cluster munitions related strike data, and continued
working to prepare even more data to answer requests in the
1701 report. Mull pressed the Israelis to provide targeting
data requested by UNIFIL. Both sides agreed to convene a
joint cluster munitions working group in early May in Israel
to further discuss reform efforts, cooperation within the
Convention on Conventional Weapons (CCW) to derail the Oslo
Process, review and update as necessary of classified
agreements on Israel's use of cluster munitions, and explore
ways to cooperate on
development of more reliable munitions.

Missile and Rocket Defense Cooperation:

18. (S) OSD/ISA's BG Rand updated the status on the Short
Range Rocket Defense Working Group (SRRDWG). Rand pointed
out that the working group was established pursuant to an
Israeli request for USG assistance to counter the threat
posed by frequent rocket and mortar attacks from Gaza. Rand
previewed the upcoming second meeting of the SRRDWG in Tel
Aviv on April 6-7. The meeting would seek to determine the
way ahead on cooperation, assess progress, and refine the
group's mission and objectives. GOI interest in selling the
Arrow system to Turkey was discussed during the executive
session, leading to GOI agreement on U.S. concerns and a GOI
request to seek other opportunities for the U.S. and Israel
to work cooperatively to engage Turkey and improve what they
view as deteriorating internal situation.

Joint Security Assistance Planning:

19. (S) LTC Udi Evental presented a briefing on Israel's
Joint Security Assistance Planning (JSAP) and its future
outlook. Following the briefing, Mull and Buchris exchanged
letters confirming the USG grant foreign military assistance
levels of $2.55 billion for FY2009, subject to Congressional
approval. The USG letter, signed by AU/S Rood, also
reiterated support for cooperative U.S.-Israeli programs and
USG commitment to continue seeking funds for U.S.
participation in selected joint research and development
projects with Israel.

Participants:

State Department
Stephen D. Mull, PM, Acting Assistant Secretary
Frank Ruggiero, PM, Deputy Assistant Secretary
Robert Danin, NEA, Deputy Assistant Secretary
Lawrence Butler, NEA, Deputy Assistant Secretary
David Bame, PM/RSAT, Director
David Trimble, PM/DTC, Director Compliance
Ian Kelly, EUR/RUS, Director
Richard Sacks, SCA/PB, Director
Timothy Wilder, SCA/RA
Tim Watkins, PM/DTC, Compliance Officer
Brooke Milton Kurtz, PM/RSAT, Section Chief
Lt Col Reginald Robinson, PM/RSAT, Military Advisor

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John Schwenk, PM/RSAT, Desk Officer
Jonathan Peccia, NEA/IPA, Israel Desk Officer
Margaret Mitchell, ISN/CATR, Foreign Affairs Officer

Office of the Secretary of Defense
Mary Beth Long, ISA, Assistant Secretary of Defense
Mark Kimmitt, ISA, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense
Alan Davidson, Israel Desk Officer
Ben Loewy, Defense Intelligence Agency

National Security Council
Elliot Abrams, Deputy National Security Advisor
Michael Pascual, Director Middle East North Africa

Defense Security Cooperative Agency
Richard Millies, Deputy Director
Chip Leon, Israel Country Program Director

EUCOM
Maj Gen Robertus Remkes
CAPT Kenneth Klothe

Defense Technology Security Administration
Beth McCormick, Deputy Under-Secretary of Defense
Charles Shotwell, Foreign Policy Analyst

U.S. Embassy
Col David O'Meara, Defense Attach,
Lt. Col. Ramiro Martinez, Office of Defense Cooperation

Joint Staff
LTC Richard Sele, J-5, Israel Country Director
LTC Kirk Dorr, J-3, Iraq Office

Missile Defense Agency
LTC Douglas Pentecost
Joe Collins


GOI Participants

Ministry of Defense
BG (Ret.) Pinchas Barel Buchris, Director General
Mr Amos Gilad, Head of Political Military Bureau
Mr. Amir Kain, Director, Directorate of Security of the
Defense Establishment
Mr. Yekutiel (Kuti) Mor, Director, Government of Israel
Defense Mission
Mr. Eli Pincu, Director, Defense Export Control Division
Mr. Victor Mintz, Legal Advisor, Israel Defense Mission to
the USA
Mr. Gil Ffloris, Assistant to the Director General
Mr. Danyshai Korenblot, Assistant Head of Political Military
Bureau
Mr. Gideon Meretz, Legal Advisor
Mr. Ahaz Ben Ari, Legal Advisor

Israeli Defense Force
Mr. Udi Evental, International desk officer IDF/JS
Mr. Eitan Siegal, Head of Interdisciplinary and Strategic
Arena

Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Ambassador Miriam Ziv, Deputy Director General for Strategic
Affairs Division
Mr. Roey Gilad, Director for Export Control Strategic Affairs

Embassy of Israel in Washington
Mr. Jeremy Issacharoff, Deputy Chief of Mission Embassy of
Israel
Mr. Amir Maimon, Minister Consular Political Department
MG Benjamin Gantz, Defense& Armed Forces Attache
BG Shmaya Avieli, Air Force Attache
Maj. Ofir Cohavi, Assistant to the Defense Attach,
Mr. Nir Ben-Moshe, Director, Defense Cooperation Office
Mr. Eyal Bar-Or, Washington Arrow Representative
Lt. Col. Yohai Bar Zakay, Assistant Defense Attach,
RICE