SECRETARY RICE'S DECEMBER 9, 2008 MEETING WITH

S E C R E T STATE 130335


E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/28
TAGS: OVIP RICE CONDOLEEZZA PGOV PREL PTER SY
LE, IS
SUBJECT: SECRETARY RICE'S DECEMBER 9, 2008 MEETING WITH
LEBANESE MINISTER OF STATE NASSIB LAHOUD


1. (U) Classified by: NEA C. David Welch for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d)


2. (U) Meeting date: December 9, 2008, at 10:30 a.m.
for 30 minutes in Washington, DC.


3. (U) Participants:

UNITED STATES
The Secretary
Deputy A/S David Hale, NEA
Lebanon Desk Officer Christine Lawson

LEBANON
Nassib Lahoud, Minister of State
Ambassador Antoine Chedid, Ambassador of Lebanon to the
United States

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SUMMARY
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4. (S) The Secretary's December 9 discussions with
Minister of State Nassib Lahoud, a key figure in the
majority March 14 coalition and a staunch critic of
Hizballah, focused on Lebanon's upcoming parliamentary
elections as well as continuing U.S. support for a
sovereign, independent, and democratic Lebanon. Lahoud
predicted a narrow victory for March 14 in the elections
and urged the United States to provide visible support
to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). He also highlighted
the need to demonstrate diplomatic progress on the
territorial dispute with Israel over Ghajar village.
The Secretary affirmed that the United States would
continue to press forward with military assistance to
Lebanon. Both praised President Sleiman's leadership
and noted the need for continued progress in the
National Dialogue. END SUMMARY

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LEBANON A SUCCESS STORY, BUT WORK REMAINS
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5. (C) Lahoud thanked the Secretary for the United
States' strong support for Lebanon, noting that Lebanon
was now "back on the map." Lahoud highlighted the
emergence of March 14 as a unified political movement
and the exit of Syrian troops from the country. The
Secretary agreed, affirming that the United States would
continue supporting the LAF and its deployment
throughout the country. Although Syria remains
influential in Lebanon, the Secretary noted that Lebanon
finds itself in a much better place today than in 2006,
but cautioned that much work remains. The Secretary
encouraged Lebanon to seize on its good relationship
with Abu Mazen to resolve its Palestinian refugee issue.
Syria also must be held to its obligations, including in
its bilateral relationship with Lebanon.

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NARROW MAJORITY FOR SPRING 2009 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
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6. (C) Lahoud said that the spring 2009 parliamentary
elections would present a close race between March 14
candidates and opposition March 8 electoral contenders,
noting that although some districts already were
"foregone conclusions," many swing votes remained,
especially among Christian voters. Lahoud believed
March 14's message of support for a sovereign,
independent Lebanon that maintains good relations with
the Arab world and with the West was gaining traction
with voters. March 14 would present its electoral
platform in the next few weeks, according to Lahoud. He
added that despite its progress with messaging,
additional work was needed to fine tune the group
organizationally, given the many strong leaders in the
coalition. He also said that internal maneuvering over
candidates for particular seats continued.


7. (C) Lahoud predicted that despite the opposition's
efforts to portray Lebanon's Sunnis as extremists, this
message would not resonate with the majority of voters
and March 14 would win the elections by a narrow margin,
leading to the formation of another national unity
government. He said Christian voters were slowly moving
into the March 14 camp, skeptically commenting on
opposition leader Michel Aoun's "pilgrimage" to Syria.
He highlighted that although Aoun maintains a strong
base of supporters, his actions are increasingly leading
him to lose the middle ground in Lebanon.

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HELP WANTED: LEBANESE ARMED FORCES AND GHAJAR
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8. (C) Lahoud said continued and visible evidence of
U.S. support to the Lebanese Armed Forces would be
critical in the run-up to elections. The Secretary
agreed, reassuring Lahoud that she would continue to
push our military assistance package forward, despite
Israeli objections. The Secretary said she believed
Israel was short-sighted in its opposition to arms for
the LAF, adding that a strong Lebanese army was in
Israel's own self-interest. She highlighted the LAF's
important role as a national institution and applauded
its deployment throughout the country, noting that
through continued support and training, the LAF could
eventually become a more effective force throughout
Lebanon, including on the Northern border.


9. (S) Turning to Ghajar, Lahoud said discussions "were
not going well." He underscored that progress on Ghajar
would be essential in strengthening the government and
March 14's credibility and urged the U.S. to press
Israel on this issue.


10. (S) Lahoud asked the Secretary her views on the
Syria-Israel negotiations. She remarked that
negotiations were not in an advanced stage, but that
optimism about the discussions could be helpful. The
Secretary added that Syria appears to want to keep its
options open, but underscored that Syria would have to
take into account the existence of a legitimate,
independent, government in Lebanon in its discussions.
Ultimately, the Secretary said, the United States would
not have a problem with Syria getting its land back
through negotiations, but in turn, Syria must accept
that it cannot act as a "spoiler" in the region, as it
has done for years.

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Support for President Sleiman
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11. (C) Concluding the meeting, the Secretary
emphasized the United States' strong support for
President Sleiman, noting that he is a serious
interlocutor. Lahoud agreed, highlighting Slieman's
strong relationship with Prime Minister Siniora. The
Secretary affirmed that in her conversations with the
transition team, she would continue to underscore the
need to support Lebanon's democratic government, the
Lebanese security forces, the Special Tribunal for
Lebanon, and the need for full implementation of UN
Security Council resolutions 1701 and 1559. She
encouraged Lahoud to continue pushing ahead with the
National Dialogue process and thanked him for his
dedicated leadership.


RICE