U.S. AND EU DISCUSS DEVELOPMENTS IN EAST ASIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 STATE 116304

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/23
TAGS: PREL FR EU XB NK CH
SUBJECT: U.S. AND EU DISCUSS DEVELOPMENTS IN EAST ASIA

REF: USEU 0356

(U) CLASSIFIED BY EAP PDAS GLYN T. DAVIES. REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: U.S. and EU officials held their biannual discussions
on East Asia (termed COASI, or Consultations on Asia) in Washington
on October 3. In addition to a general review of developments in the
region, this session included an exchange of views on the future of
India, China, and ASEAN in the evolving global architecture and next
steps for cooperation with Central Asia. Under new Japanese PM Aso,
Japan's foreign policy and the current trajectory of the U.S.-Japan
alliance are likely to remain broadly consistent with past trends.
According to the EU, the new Taiwan administration is "step-by-step"
in dealing with China to gain more formalized representation in
international organizations. Pending assurances from the DPRK on
distribution and monitoring, the EU remains interested in better
coordinating food aid in the DPRK with the United States and other
donors and exchanging information on the NGOs operating in the DPRK.
The United States and EU concurred on the lack of progress in Burma
and the UN's current role, but disagreed on alternative policy
measures such as sanctions. EU representatives saw increased
sanctions as ineffective in Burma's case. U.S. and EU officials also
discussed developments elsewhere in Southeast Asia such as Indonesia,
the Philippines, Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam, and the future
trajectory of ASEAN. END SUMMARY.

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STRATEGIC ISSUES: INDIA, CHINA, AND ASEAN
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2. (C) REGIONAL ISSUES: EU officials opened the working lunch (joint
with EAP and SCA officials) by asking how the United States organized
its South and Central Asia policy and how Afghanistan fit into U.S.
policy towards Central Asia. SCA PDAS Donald Camp acknowledged that,
after establishing the SCA Bureau, some officials in Central Asia
initially had seemed disappointed to be subsumed into the bureau that
covers South Asia. Both U.S. and EU officials discussed the next
steps for economic cooperation with Central Asia, with an expected
upcoming regional conference on food and energy security convened by
the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in November 2008. EU
officials sought U.S. views of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
(SCO) and potential U.S. observership.


3. (C) Moving to Southeast Asian regional organizations, EU
Commission Director James Moran noted that Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN) officials had visited the EU many times to
better understand two critical achievements of the EU: reducing
historic animosities and opening a common market. ASEAN's new
charter was far from creating an EU-style common market, but
intra-ASEAN trade had now reached a critical mass -- roughly
one-third of trade of member countries is among ASEAN nations (the
same level of European countries in the 1970s). There might now be
real opportunities for economic integration.


4. (C) INDIA AND GLOBAL ARCHITECTURE: In discussing the great powers
of Asia - India, China, Japan - an EU official lamented that most
European leaders thought only in economic, not geostrategic, terms.
French Director for Asia Francois Descoueyte wondered whether India
would follow China's path of integration into the global system and
onto the world stage. More broadly, EU officials proffered that an
emerging global system would have six major groups - a "P-6"
involving the EU, United States, China, India, Japan, and Russia. G
etting to that future global architecture, all agreed, would be
extremely difficult.

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JAPANESE POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS, TAIWAN and CHINA
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5. (C) JAPAN: Descoueyte opined that, under new Japanese PM Aso,
Japan's foreign policy would be somewhat similar, but perhaps more
pro-active and right-wing. How Aso balanced the Japanese political
elites and the will of the public would remain essential for his
success. Descoueyte also queried U.S. officials on whether the
U.S.-Japan alliance might change under Aso.


6. (C) EAP PDAS Glyn Davies and EAP DAS Alex Arvizu noted "all eyes
are now on Aso." While Aso sought longevity in his Prime
Ministership, the turbulent Japanese political system might not allow
for a long tenure. "Small things" could introduce serious political
controversy into the system, and many in the Japanese public did not
trust some of the political elites. The United States was in the
midst of a major realignment of forces in Japan and in the region and
would continue to work closely with the GOJ on that effort. DAS
Arvizu noted that since Japan would likely continue to have weak

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governments in the near term, we could not expect major new
diplomatic initiatives from Tokyo. He suggested that the United
States and EU focus on small, practical regional issues when dealing
with the Japanese. Participants observed that if Japan were to
obtain a permanent Security Council seat, Tokyo might be surprised by
how tough some of the decisions would be, especially in authorizing
the use of force.


7. (C) TAIWAN: Descoueyte noted that the new Taiwan administration
was "step-by-step" trying to gain more formalized representation in
international organizations. Moran felt that perhaps Taiwan could
find some level of representation in the WHO. Some in the
international community, and certainly China, worried that Taiwan
might abuse its new international space and "make an issue" out of
its limited role once it was defined. EAP Acting DAS John Norris
noted that unless China showed more flexibility on the issue of
international space, there would likely be no movement by others in
the international community. Norris also took the opportunity to
preview for the EU the pending announcement of U.S. arms sales to
Taiwan to occur later that day.


8. (C) S/P staff James Green spoke to the need for EU help in urging
China to coordinate its foreign assistance more in places like
Africa. Descoueyte felt trilateral cooperation between donors could
provide an opening for greater coordination and transparency.

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KOREAN PENINSULA
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9. (C) Descoueyte relayed known French details about the health of
Kim Jong-il. The EU remained interested in better coordinating food
aid in the DPRK with the United States and other donors and
exchanging information on the NGOs operating in the DPRK. Descoueyte
stated that the North Korean people are devastated and hurting. He
wondered why the international community made "so much noise" about
Burma, but less so about the DPRK. Moran noted that this year's
harvest in the DPRK is rumored to be less plentiful than in years
past. The EU needed assurances from the DPRK regarding the
distribution and monitoring of food aid before EU commitments of aid.


10. (C) In response to Descoueyte's relay of the Chinese view that
the Six-Party Talks process is "up to Washington," Davies responded
that we must continue to gain movement from the DPRK on key issues.
The United States had shown flexibility throughout the process.
EAP/K Director Kurt Tong noted that the World Food Program and U.S.
NGOs, supported by the United States, had negotiated over the past
year a monitoring program to facilitate U.S. food aid of 500,000 tons
over 10 months. The EU was welcome to operate under the agreement.
The United States would likely reexamine its food aid commitments in
the spring of 2009, following the results of the 2008 harvest. Tong
also updated the EU on U.S. and ROK legislative processes in
approving the U.S.-ROK Free Trade Agreement.

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BURMA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
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11. (C) BURMA: The United States and EU concurred on the lack of
progress in Burma, but diffed on the utility of policy measures such
as sanctions. In discussing the role of the UN, both parties held
that UN special representative Ibrahim Gambari's activities did not
seem to produce significant results in pressing for political
dialogue and political prisoner releases.


12. (C) Internally, EU member-states did not agree on the utility of
sanctions or their effectiveness. Descoueyte claimed that sanctions
in the past had not borne any fruit and Moran mentioned it could even
hurt business interests. Czech Director for Asia and the Pacific
Jiri Sitler argued that sanctions held a symbolic meaning. Despite
this, the EU did not have a position on an alternative approach to
increasing sanctions. Still, Moran wondered how a foreign
assistance-oriented approach focusing on Millenium Development Goals
would unfold in the future. Descoueyte was not convinced of the
merits of the non-paper proposed by UK for a new diplomatic approach,
including what he characterized as the UK's overly high expectation
for free and fair elections by 2010. The EU would discuss Burma
topics with Asian countries during the Asia-Europe Summit at the end
of October in China.


13. (C) EAP/MLS Director Steve Blake gave a brief overview of U.S.
views on the situation in Burma. PDAS Davies maintained that
sanctions work when a clear target is defined; they send a clear
message, and they prevent Burma from pursuing nefarious deals. Aung
San Suu Kyi's demand for continued sanctions made a case for their
utility as well.


14. (C) SOUTHEAST ASIA: On Thailand, Moran said the new prime
minister seemed credible although the People's Alliance for Democracy

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(PAD) still "made some noise" regarding his appointment. Descoueyte
said Thailand would stabilize as long as the current king, now 81
years old, stayed in power and retained unanimous support from the
public and the army. On Vietnam, Moran said that remnants of the old
regime, including human rights issues, made it difficult for foreign
countries to engage Vietnam economically. Descoueyte congratulated
the United States on recently providing funds to the Khmer Rouge
Trials in Cambodia. Speaking to the situation in Aceh, Moran said it
might be difficult to hold elections peacefully without an
international monitoring team. However, it might be inappropriate
for the EU to participate in an election monitoring team due to the
EU's high degree of involvement in the peace process. Moran
speculated on the possibility that the Aceh Peace Agreement might go
"belly up" if elections went poorly.


15. (C) PDAS Davies pointed out the important role of Thailand's
military as key for the country to accept any fundamental political
shifts. On peace efforts in the southern Philippines, EAP/MTS
Director Kamala Lakhdir attributed the recent breakdown of the peace
agreement in Kuala Lumpur to the failure of parliamentarians, local
leaders, and President Arroyo. The decision about whether to accept
an agreement now resides with the Philippine Supreme Court. On
upcoming elections in Indonesia, Lakhdhir acknowledged Indonesia's
record of holding elections successfully in the recent past. The
United States would take that record into account when considering
whether to provide U.S. assistance for the elections.


16. (C) REGIONAL ARCHITECTURE AND ASEAN: Moran maintained that
discussions on regional frameworks made sense so long as there was
seriousness on the part of ASEAN member countries, and that
substantial matters would continue to be dealt with on a bilateral
basis. PDAS Davies spoke favorably of ASEAN Secretary-General Surin
Pitsuwan and the improving cooperation between ASEAN and the United
States. EAP/RSP Director Blair Hall mentioned that Indonesia and
Thailand, the last two countries that had not ratified the ASEAN
Charter, would soon overcome legislative delays in ratification.
This would pave the way for the Charter's passage at the December
ASEAN Summit. The United States hoped to cooperate closely with
ASEAN, but in the background, on the design of its Human Rights Body.
Hall also mentioned there was a general sense that the ASEAN
Regional Forum (ARF) should move beyond traditional security issues
and focus more on concrete transnational security issues including
disaster relief, maritime security and nonproliferation.


17. PARTICIPANTS

United States:
Glyn Davies, EAP PDAS
Alex Arvizu, EAP DAS
Scot Marciel, EAP DAS
John Norris, EAP DAS, Acting
Blair Hall, EAP/RSP Director
Kamala Lakhdir, EAP/MTS Director
Steve Blake, EAP/MLS Director
Kurt Tong, EAP/K Director
David Shear, EAP/CM Director
James Green, S/P Staff
Donald Camp, SCA PDAS
Evan Feigenbaum, SCA DAS
George Krol, SCA DAS
Jack Spillsbury, SCA/RA Director

European Union Troika:
-- French Presidency:
Francois Descouetye, Director for Asia and Oceania
Jean-Noel Ladois, European Cooperation Bureau
Etienne de Gonneville, French Embassy

--EU Commission:
James Moran, Director DG Relex Asia
Denis Chaibi, Desk Officer for India
Laszlo Deak, Political Counselor, EC Delegation in Washington

-- EU Council Secretariat:
Francesco Presutti, Asia Task Force, Acting Head of Unit
Tim Eestermans, Counselor for Afghanistan, Pakistan, Horizontal Issues

-- Incoming Czech Presidency
Jiri Sitler, Director for Asia and Pacific
RICE