NORWAY HOSTS INFORMAL ARCTIC MEETING

UNCLAS STATE 111997

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ENRG NO PREL SENV KGHG XT XG
SUBJECT: NORWAY HOSTS INFORMAL ARCTIC MEETING

REF: COPENHAGEN 321


1. (U) Summary: The Norwegian foreign ministry hosted an
informal sub-ministerial Arctic meeting, outside the Arctic
Council, in Tromso October 13-14. Arctic Council member
states, Permanent Participants and state observers were
briefed on the influence of non-CO2 drivers in Arctic
warming; took stock of progress of the Council's "Snow,
Water, Ice, Permafrost in the Arctic" (SWIPA) assessment;
heard about Russian plans to table a proposal on emergency
preparedness and response in the region; and discussed the
role of observers and associated Council reforms to enhance
their participation. Denmark signaled its intent, when it
takes over as Council chair in April 2009, to seek Council
input to the COP-15 climate summit in Copenhagen. No
decisions were taken nor concluding statement issued. End
Summary.

Background


2. (U) This meeting was announced by Foreign Minister Stoere
at the May Ilulissat Arctic Ocean Conference (Reftel). At
that time it was described as a briefing for the Arctic
Council member states and Permanent Participants who were not
invited to Ilulissat. Participation in the Arctic Ocean
Conference was limited to the five Arctic coastal states
(Denmark, Norway, U.S., Russia, Canada) and was for the
purpose of demonstrating solidarity in peacefully resolving
potentially overlapping extended continental shelf claims.


3. (U) Over time, the meeting evolved into an unofficial
exchange on climate science developments and Arctic Council
structural issues. Although the Ilulissat Declaration was
alluded to, it was not explicitly included in the agenda.
The Tromso meeting included participation by seven of the
eight Arctic Council member states (Canada declined to
participate due to its October 14 national election) and only
one of the Permanent Participants (the Saami Council). The
meeting was hosted and chaired by State Secretary for Foreign
Affairs, Elisabeth Walaas. OAS DAS David Balton led the U.S.
delegation, which included the U.S. Senior Arctic Official
(SAO) and Regional Environment Officer (REO).

Short-term, non-CO2 Drivers of Climate Change


4. (U) In a session moderated by John Calder of NOAA, Dr.
Drew Shindell of NASA/Goddard briefed the group on the state
of the science on short-lived Arctic climate forcers (in
contrast to carbon dioxide which is long-lived in the
atmosphere). These include black carbon (soot),tropospheric
ozone (smog),and methane, which mostly originate outside the
Arctic but which contribute to accelerated Arctic warming for
various reasons. A series of workshops on this subject, the
most recent of which took place in Oslo September 15-16 in
conjunction with the Arctic Council,s Arctic Monitoring and
Assessment Program (AMAP),acknowledge the significant
scientific uncertainty but recommended that the Arctic
Council consider a political commitment to taking voluntary
action to address these gasses and pollutants.


5. (U) The workshop recommendations, to be presented to the
Arctic Council Senior Arctic Officials (SAOs) next month in
Kautokeino, include enhancing and expanding networks to
monitor short-lived forcers; maximizing methane emission
reductions by Arctic nations in the near term (and possibly
globally through non-Kyoto programs like Methane-to-Markets);
limiting the burning of agricultural residues in springtime
(leading up to the sensitive Arctic melt season); and
undertaking feasibility studies on how best to address
sources of these short-term forcing agents. The group also
recommended collaboration with the Executive Body of the
Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP),
with UNEP, and with the International Maritime Organization
to limit these pollutants, as well as side events at UNFCCC
COP-14 in Poznan and COP-15 in Copenhagen. DAS Balton
expressed U.S. interest in reviewing the recommendations with
a view toward exploring possibilities for taking early action.

SWIPA Update


6. (U) Norwegian Polar Institute Research Director Kim
Holmen said that the Arctic sea ice retreat in 2008 came
close to the record-breaking 2007 minimum. The low quality
of Arctic Ocean sea ice (consisting of one to two-year cover)
presages rapid future melting. Dr. Margareta Johansson of
Lund University reported on snow cover and permafrost trends,
including uncertainty over the stability of subsea methane
hydrates. Rene Forsberg of the Danish National Space
Institute reported that the Greenland ice sheet is in dynamic
balance, but that the retreat of its outlet glaciers is
accelerating. The Iceland SAO remarked that increasing
amounts of icebergs that calve from Arctic glaciers are a
"ticking time bomb" for shipping, particularly given the
increasing number of ships in the Arctic Ocean that are not
ice-strengthened such as large cruise ships. The Russian
SAO, citing U.S. researchers at the Boulder-based National
Snow and Ice Data Center, expressed skepticism that Greenland
outlet glacier acceleration posed an imminent threat to
global sea levels.

Russians on Search and Rescue


7. (U) Russian SAO Anton Vasiliev said Russia was preparing
a formal proposal to create an Arctic emergency
preparedness/search and rescue (SAR) system it hoped to
present to SAOs at their meeting next month. The idea had
been discussed in the EPPR working group and at the Ilulissat
conference in May, he noted. A priority would be to create a
"safety net" around Arctic oil and gas facilities, nuclear
power plants, and population centers (note: apparently only
in Russia). The proposal would take several years to
implement and would include emergency risk assessments, the
siting of response centers, and possible future consideration
of an integrated Arctic response system. A public/private
partnership would permit mixed financing by enterprises such
as Lukoil.


8. Vasiliev said that as chair of the Barents-Euro Arctic
Council (BEAC),Russia had invested two million Euros over
the past year, holding a September seminar in Dudinka, Russia
on eco-system impacts of environmental emergencies (sponsored
by Sweden),and an October 1-2 oil spill emergency
exercise/simulation in Naryan-Mar at the Lukoil Verandey
terminal with participation by nearly all of the Arctic
countries (note: the U.S. sent a Coast Guard representative).
He invited other Council members to support the Russian
initiative, saying they would be invited to collaborate
through observation and exercises with Russian "crisis
centers." All delegations welcomed the prospective Russian
initiative in general terms, while posing clarifying
questions. In doing so, DAS Balton recommended that Russia
build upon existing arrangements under the IMO, ICAO,
bilateral and multilateral SAR agreements. Sweden suggested
that an inventory of existing SAR-related arrangements and
authorities be developed. Pressed by Netherlands, the
Russian said that while oil and gas was Russia's "natural
focus," shipping and tourism could also be included. The
Saami Council representative welcomed Russian willingness to
provide training to Arctic residents.

Danish Preview Priorities


9. (U) Danish MFA Political Director Carsten Damsgaard said
Denmark had hosted the May Ilulissat conference of the five
Arctic coastal states to prevent tensions from emerging over
the extended continental shelf claims process. The meeting
had been a great success, he said, in that all parties
committed to abide by the existing international legal
framework to resolve any overlapping claims. Denmark's
likely priorities when it assumes the chair of the Arctic
Council in April 2009 would be to protect the fragile Arctic
environment and to synthesize the Council's research on
Arctic climate trends to help inform and guide policy
discussions at the UNFCCC COP-15 meeting in December 2009 in
Copenhagen. Sweden, Iceland, Norway and several observers
voiced support for the Danish proposal to provide Council
inputs to COP-15. (Note: we did not verbally support this
and will need to discuss in Washington).

Arctic Council Structural Issues


10. (U) Elisabeth Walaas opened the discussion on Arctic
Council matters by saying it was convinced the existing legal
framework applicable to the Arctic was adequate, but that
more work was needed on the implementation side. She also
stressed that the Arctic Council must become more responsive
to rapidly changing Arctic conditions. Walaas helpfully said
that the subject of Arctic Council membership was not on the
table, but that the member states should be open to making
operational changes within the existing mandate that would
facilitate observer participation. The other member states
(including Russia) voiced similar commitment to the existing
framework. A representative of the Parliamentarians of the
Arctic Region called for ministerial-level meetings at least
one per year (they are currently held biannually),but that
view was not echoed by the member states. Finland suggested
that informal policy meetings like this one might be
scheduled to alternate with ministerial meetings during off
years where observer states could participate on a more level
playing field with the Permanent Participants. Norway lauded
the performance of the six-year secretariat in Tromso, and
urged it be made permanent.


11. (U) Norway invited interested Arctic Council observer
states to participate freely in the informal meeting and to
share information about their Arctic interests and how they
could contribute to the sustainable development goals of the
Council. Poland, Italy, France, Germany, the U.K. and the
Netherlands expressed interest in playing larger roles and
advocated for participation in the Council's working groups.
France announced it was co-sponsoring a conference on the
Arctic in Monaco in November 2008 to promote European
interest in Arctic scientific research. Netherlands urged
that observers be permitted to participate fully in all
Council discussions, pledging that "we know our place and
would not abuse the privilege." Norway expressed support for
observer participation in working groups and promised to
develop recommendations for consideration by the SAOs on the
role of observers.


12. (U) DAS Balton agreed with the view that the existing
framework governing the Arctic (e.g. the law of the sea,
various IMO instruments, and other environmental agreements)
were generally adequate, and that we saw no need for a new
comprehensive Arctic treaty. He noted, however, that new or
strengthened rules might also be needed on certain topics
such as search and rescue, shipping and fisheries. He noted
that the U.S. believes the Council has been effective within
the mandate it has been given. DAS Balton expressed U.S.
openness to reviewing the role of observers, and welcomed the
interest in observership by new states. He urged that in
reviewing the role of observers the Council preserve what
currently works well, including the role of Permanent
Participants. Balton also reminded other participants of the
need for all Arctic governments to facilitate access for
scientific research.

Comment


13. (SBU) Despite the confusing, and some would say
problematic, way in which this meeting came to pass, it was
useful in that it provided Arctic Council member states a
chance to step back from the exigencies of formal meetings to
reflect on new developments in Arctic science and how the
overall operation can be improved. It highlighted several
opportunities: to engage with our Arctic neighbors on how
best to mitigate environmental threats such as non-CO2
forcers of climate change; how to enhance the participation
of other states and organizations prepared to contribute to
the work of the Council; and how best to address the growing
need for search and rescue cooperation in the Arctic. It
also highlighted narrower national interests, including
Norway's strong desire for a permanent AC Secretariat in
Tromso, Russia,s domestic need for help with responding to
Arctic emergencies, and the Danish intention to use their
Arctic Council chairmanship to enhance the UNFCCC COP-15
meeting they will host in December 2009. Although the
observer issue highlighted an area for institutional
improvement, calls for radical change were absent.
RICE