BURNS-SASAE-LEE TRILATERAL MEETING OCTOBER 14,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 STATE 111761

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2018
TAGS: EAID PREL JA KS
SUBJECT: BURNS-SASAE-LEE TRILATERAL MEETING OCTOBER 14,
2008

Classified By: U/S for Pol Affairs Burns for reasons 1.4 (b and d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: On October 14, Under Secretary Burns hosted
a US-Japan-ROK trilateral meeting with Japanese Deputy
Foreign Minister Kenichiro Sasae and ROK Deputy Foreign
Minister Lee Yong-joon. The wide-ranging meeting covered
Afghanistan and Pakistan, Iran sanctions, dealing with a
resurgent Russia, engaging with China, North Korea issues and
U.S. participation in regional fora. Participants agreed to
hold the next trilateral meeting in Tokyo, in early 2009.
During a brief bilateral pre-meeting, DFM Lee met with U/S
Burns (see para 24) and raised a set of bilateral issues.
End Summary.

Building a U.S.-ROK-Japan Trilateral Mechanism
-------------- --


2. (SBU) U/S Burns opened by stressing the value of
trilateral meetings between the United States, Japan and the
ROK. U/S Burns noted that Northeast Asia would likely be a
key focus of the next administration,s foreign policy,
regardless of who wins in November. Japanese DFM Sasae said
that the U.S. presence and commitment to the region was
essential for Asia-Pacific peace and security. Sasae agreed
that regular U.S.-Japan-ROK trilateral coordination would be
an important part of U.S. regional engagement and suggested
this sub-regional dialogue continue on an informal basis at
the Under Secretary/Deputy Foreign Minister level.

Afghanistan/Pakistan - Focus on the Border
--------------


3. (S) DFM Sasae said the GOJ shared the U.S. view that the
situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan was of central
strategic importance. Priority one is security and the
international community should work on a "concerted strategy"
to build Afghan police and military capacity. Second is to
support President Karzai politically and economically in the
run-up to next year,s election. Sasae noted that Japan had
already pledged $2 billion in assistance for Afghanistan and
was looking at additional measures, but cautioned it would
take time to develop consensus given the political situation
in Tokyo.


4. (S) Sasae was fairly confident that Japan would be able to
extend its Indian Ocean refueling mission in support of
coalition activities. He mentioned other "small but
symbolic" GOJ steps such as bringing Afghan police to Japan
for training.


5. (S) DFM Lee said the ROK generally shares Japan,s views
on Afghanistan. The ROKG supports the Karzai-led government
and hopes it will be able to assert greater control over
areas of Afghanistan outside of Kabul. The ROK has sent one
Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) to Afghanistan, and is
considering sending more teams. In addition, the ROKG is
considering providing more support for police training and
financial support for the Afghan National Army (ANA). On
October 31, the ROK plans to send a survey team to
Afghanistan to study what assistance is needed. The survey
team will provide recommendations before the end of 2008.


6. (S) Turning to Pakistan, DFM Sasae said that the unstable
political situation, terrorists on the Afghan border, and
tremendous economic challenges faced by Islamabad were of
serious concern to Tokyo. He urged the U.S. to pressure
Saudi Arabia to do more to help Pakistan financially. The
ROKG agreed on the seriousness of the situation in Pakistan
and DFM Lee said he believes improving the security situation
is essential. However, Lee noted that ROK foreign assistance
to Pakistan remains quite small compared to aid provided by
Japan and the United States.


7. (S) U/S Burns emphasized that Afghanistan and Pakistan
would be a priority for the United States regardless of who
wins the U.S. election and that Washington would continue to
seek additional contributions from Tokyo and Seoul in the
critical period ahead. He agreed that the new Pakistani
government faced many serious challenges and stressed that
the United States would continue to encourage Pakistani
financial reform. The GOP needs to exert more control in the
Northwest territorial areas for the current situation in

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Pakistan to improve. While most of the current focus is on
the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, the Pakistan-India
relationship also needs monitoring, he said, noting the
importance of restarting a back-channel dialogue between New
Delhi and Islamabad.

Iran - Coordinating Efforts
--------------


8. (S) Turning to Iran, DFM Lee said the ROK is very
interested in the Iran nuclear situation because of its links
to the North Korea nuclear issue. DFM Lee said he visited
Iran about two months ago, and Iran &rolled out the red
carpet,8 going to great lengths to try to justify its
uranium enrichment program. Lee said the ROKG message to
Iran was that there is no need to enrich uranium if your goal
is to use light water reactors to generate electricity. Lee
noted that the ROK imports about nine percent of its oil from
Iran, and thus is unable totally to break off diplomatic or
economic engagement with Iran. However, the ROKG is
discouraging banks and shipping companies from initiating new
contracts with Iran. DFM Lee said the ROKG will not stop the
delivery of two ships that Iran ordered before the current
sanctions against Iran were initiated, since each ship
carries a price tag of approximately $100 million and ROK
investigations into the ship building contracts have found no
evidence of illegal activities. The ROKG will discourage any
new shipbuilding contracts with Iran, he said.


9. (S) U/S Burns emphasized that the U.S. is committed to a
two-track strategy on Iran. He urged the ROK to continue to
take action against Iranian banks, and discourage their
companies from doing business with Iran -- especially in
shipping, insurance, and banking -- as Iran will not bend
unless they see there is a cost. U/S Burns said that
restricting export credits can be an exceptionally effective
lever to use with Iran. He emphasized that Iran must be
shown that there are strong consequences for non-compliance
on the uranium enrichment issue.

Russia - Dealing with a Resurgent Moscow
--------------


10. (S) U/S Burns said that a resurgent Russia was determined
to assert its self interests and that Prime Minister Putin in
particular wanted to show that Russia could not be pushed
around. The economic crisis, impact on Russia could become
more pronounced if oil drops below USD 75 a barrel, he said.
Russia needs money to pay for tens of billions of dollars in
infrastructure improvements in its much neglected rural areas
and cities outside of St. Petersburg and Moscow. DFM Sasae
agreed that Moscow was determined to show that it &was
back.8 He noted that Russia was rebuilding its military
presence in the Far East, deploying fighters and conducting
exercises.


11. (S) On Georgia, U/S Burns noted that Russia was still not
complying with the August 12 agreement. An important way to
show support for Georgia, he said, was to bolster it
economically. The United States plans to provide USD 1
billion in aid over two years to assist in the rebuilding
efforts. The European Union is also considering a large aid
contribution. U/S Burns strongly encouraged both the
Japanese and Korean governments to do as much as possible to
help with assistance. DFM Sasae noted that Japan took the
situation in Georgia very seriously and would send a "high
level" official to the upcoming international donor,s
conference.


12. (S) When asked by U/S Burns to discuss the recent
ROK-Russia summit, DFM Lee responded that the meeting had
focused on private sector investment opportunities,
particularly in the energy sector. A proposed pipeline for
natural gas that would link Siberia with the ROK via North
Korea would require more than 10 years to come online. This
pipeline would require continued stability and support from
North Korea, as they would be able to stop the flow at any
time, which would pose an energy security risk for South
Korea. Thus, DFM Lee expressed great skepticism that a
pipeline will be built anytime soon. For now, the
arrangement requires shipping oil and natural gas by sea.
Sasae said Japan intends to increase investment in Sakhalin.

China - Focus on Engagement
--------------


13. (S) U/S Burns observed that Beijing,s relationship with

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Moscow was evolving, with China,s hand much strengthened. A
great deal of suspicion between the two countries remains,
especially over competing interests in Central Asia and
Siberia. DFM Sasae observed that China was dealing with
enormous internal challenges, especially in its rural areas,
and wondered if reforms on land use presaged a more
capitalistic approach. Sasae said that the new
administration of Prime Minister Taro Aso had reassured
Beijing that Tokyo would continue to maintain its current
China policy. Aso will meet with Hu later in October at the
ASEM Summit. For Japan, food safety was the number one issue
with China.


14. (S) According to DFM Lee, China has more influence than
any other country with the DPRK. Correspondingly, the ROKG
was trying to engage China in order to influence the DPRK.
DFM Lee mentioned that only 2-3 years ago China only focused
on strategic relations with great powers such as Russia, the
United States, and Japan. Now an increasingly sophisticated
and confident China was reaching out and engaging with
smaller countries, especially in Africa and Latin America.
The recent ROK-China agreement to upgrade bilateral relations
to a "strategic partnership" should not be taken seriously
Lee stated, noting that China had similar partnerships with
Algeria, Mexico, and several "small African countries."


15. (S) DFM Lee said that refugees are the most important
humanitarian issue between the ROK and China. The ROKG has
implored the PRC not to send back refugees to the DPRK, and
has engaged with Beijing on the issue over 40 times during
the last eight months. The ROK encourages China to send
refugees to a third country if they feel they are unable to
send them to the ROK. However, the PRC states that they have
a treaty with the DPRK that compels them to return all DPRK
refugees back to the DPRK. Japanese DFM Sasae agreed that
the DPRK refugee issue deserved more attention as Beijing
wrongly classifies them as economic migrants. Sasae urged
the United States to raise the refugee issue directly with
China.


16. (S) Asked by U/S Burns for an assessment of the impact of
the current financial crisis on China, Japan,s Sasae stated
the economic crisis would have a limited impact on China as
they were less exposed because of the controlled nature of
their economy and currency. That said, Chinese citizens now
invested heavily in stocks and were extremely worried about
the markets. Sasae opined that China,s economy would
continue to grow, albeit at a diminished rate as exports
would be hurt. Sasae said it would be important to continue
to push China toward greater involvement in international
economic forums, and said that in the long-term, the current
crisis would impact how Beijing approached the Doha
negotiations.

DPRK - Close Coordination Needed
--------------


17. (S) As for North Korea, U/S Burns said that the
abductions issue was very important for the United States, as
the President and Secretary Rice had made clear, and that he
understood how sensitive it was for Japan.


18. (S) DFM Lee agreed that the major issues with the DPRK
are abductions, the nuclear situation and the Six-Party
Talks, and Kim Jong-il,s health and impact on future
leadership. The ROKG believes that we need to establish an
intrusive verification protocol, including sampling, that
involves the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). He
noted that the next round of Six-Party Talks will focus on
verification.


19. (S) Lee said he does not see any external signs that Kim
Jong-il,s health questions have led to tightening of control
and the ROK has not seen any tangible changes in the
leadership or its influence. The ROKG believes the recently
released pictures of Kim Jong-il visiting a DPRK women,s
army installation were likely taken months ago and are not
proof that Kim has appeared in public. Most likely the
pictures were released to calm the DPRK public and to dispel
internal rumors and speculation about the health of Kim, he
said.


20. (S) The ROKG would like to normalize its bilateral
relationship with the DPRK but has had little or no response
from the DPRK since President Lee Myong-bak took office early
this year. DFM Lee stated that the ROKG is not prepared to
provide further assistance to the DPRK until tangible

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progress is achieved. However, the ROKG does not link food
aid to bilateral relations, nor to the progress of the
Six-Party Talks and would be prepared to send additional
humanitarian shipments if needed. Lee said that the ROKG
does not completely agree with the World Food Program,s
assessment of the DPRK food situation. Seoul will be
prepared to offer aid in the spring of 2009 if the 2008
harvests in the North are not good, he concluded.


21. (S) DFM Sasae said the Japanese agreed with the ROKG
assessments on Kim Jong-il,s health and said there were no
obvious signs of regime instability. Regarding the Six-Party
Talks, Sasae said that while Tokyo was "not 100 percent
satisfied" with the DPRK,s assurances on verification, the
explicit U.S. public statement of terms (and the fact that
Pyongyang did not contradict it) was encouraging. The next
step is to get written commitments, Sasae said. He said the
verification agreement would be judged by its results and
noted that a long process remained before denuclearization
was completed. In the meantime, it would be critical for the
allies to maintain pressure on the North. On bilateral
issues, Japan remained focused on the nuclear, missile and
abduction problems. Sasae said Tokyo was waiting for a
response from Pyongyang on the resumption of investigation
into the abductions of Japanese citizens in exchange for a
partial lift of sanctions. Japan would continue to look to
the United States for support on this issue.

Regional Architecture
--------------


22. (S) U/S Burns said that U.S. interests are in regional
fora that complement trans-Pacific engagement, such as APEC
and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). DFM Lee raised three
topics: the two trilateral groups (U.S.-ROK-Japan, and
ROK-Japan-China); Australia,s Asia-Pacific Community (APC)
concept; and the mooted U.S.-Japan-China trilateral. South
Korea wants more U.S.-ROK-Japan engagement to balance the
active roster of ROK-Japan-China trilateral meetings and
programs. The ROKG is waiting for more information in order
to make a judgment on the Australian proposal for an APC, but
believes the target date of 2020 is too far off to be
effective. The ROKG has serious concerns about any proposed
trilateral meeting among the United States, Japan and China,
as it does not want to be left out and have the "superpowers"
make all the decisions for the region. The ROK believes a
four-party forum would be fairer and more productive. Sasae
said Japan understood Korean concerns over a possible
U.S.-China-Japan trilateral, and noted that it was the
Chinese who were pushing for such a meeting, not Japan.


23. (S) DFM Sasae said that Japan would like to see greater
U.S. involvement in regional fora. He noted that Russia was
increasingly aggressive in trying to involve itself in
regional groupings. Sasae urged the United States to make
additional, visible, displays of interest at multiple levels.
He also suggested holding discussions on ways of
strengthening APEC.

ROK Bilat - Work on Relocations
--------------


24. (C) During a brief bilateral pre-meeting, U/S Burns urged
the ROK to adhere to the Status of Forces Agreement and
proceed with U.S. Forces Korea base transfers. DFM Lee
stated that while camp returns and issues surrounding a New
Embassy Compound can be resolved with more flexibility from
both sides, successfully concluding this year,s
burden-sharing agreement will prove more difficult, since it
requires National Assembly approval and is therefore much
more politically-charged.

Next Steps
--------------


25. (SBU) Participants agreed that this particular trilateral
mechanism should continue. DFM Sasae agreed to host the next
round, in Tokyo, in early 2009. He suggested we consider the
idea of a trilateral ministerial meeting and even think about
a U.S.-Japan-ROK Summit.


26. (U) Participants:

The United States

Under Secretary William Burns
EAP/J Director Daniel Russel

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EAP/K Director Kurt Tong
P Special Assistant Mark Tesone
EAP/J Colin Crosby (Notetaker)
EAP/K Brian Peterson (Notetaker)

Republic of Korea

Deputy Foreign Minister Lee Yong-joon
ROK Embassy Minister-Counselor Kim Hyoung-zhin
MOFAT North American Division Director Moon Seoung-hyun
Office of the President Deputy Director Lee Kyoo-ho
Ki-hong Kim, MOFAT (Notetaker)
Si-jin Song, MOFAT (Notetaker)

Japan

Deputy Foreign Minister Kenichiro Sasae
Director for North American Affairs Kanji Yamanouchi
Director for Northeast Asia Affairs Shigeo Yamada
Embassy of Japan Political Counselor Taisuke Mibae
Deputy Director for Northeast Asia Affairs Mondo Yamamoto
(Notetaker)


27. (U) This cable was cleared by Under Secretary Burns.
RICE