A/S FRAZER'S SEPT 21 MEETING WITH TANZANIAN PRESIDENT KIKWETE

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 104948


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV TZ SF ZI RW CG
SUBJECT: A/S FRAZER'S SEPT 21 MEETING WITH TANZANIAN PRESIDENT KIKWETE

Classified By: A/S Frazer for Reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. AF Assistant Secretary Jendayi E. Frazer
met with Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete on September 21
on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).
Kikwete called South African President Thabo Mbeki,s
resignation unfortunate and said he expects the Vice
President and some members of the cabinet to also resign. He
said prominent ANC politician Tokyo Sexwale told him the ANC
is planning to name Kgalema Motlanthe as the next President.
On Zimbabwe, A/S Frazer expressed concern about the impasse
over the allocation of ministerial postings in the coalition.
Kikwete cautioned against new sanctions and said he would
discuss the situation with Prime Minister Tsvangirai to see
what could be done. On Sudan, A/S Frazer told Kikwete the
USG would veto any Article 16 motion to delay the indictment
of Sudan President Bashir if it were tabled now. Kikwete is
meeting with Sudan Vice President Taha later this week and
will discuss concerns about GOS efforts to hinder deployment
of peacekeepers to Darfur. Lastly, on the Great Lakes,
Kikwete is meeting both DRC President Kabila and Rwanda
President Kagame this week and will discuss USG concerns
about a way forward to fight rebel groups in Eastern Congo
(NOTE: Kabila cancelled his trip to UNGA. END NOTE). END
SUMMARY

2.(C) Resignation of Mbeki: Kikwete told A/S Frazer he
learned of Mbeki,s recall as he was boarding the plane to
New York and later talked to African National Congress (ANC)
President Jacob Zuma, who told him Mbeki,s recall was the
result of a decision by the National Executive Council of the
ANC. He since learned Mbeki offered his resignation to the
Parliament. Kikwete expects Vice President Phumzile
Mlambo-Ngcuka will also resign, since her husband was one of
the prosecutors in the case against Zuma that led to Mbeki,s
downfall. Kikwete also expects some members of the cabinet
will also resign. Kikwete said that prominent businessman
and ANC politico Tokyo Sexwale told him the ANC is planning
to name Kgalema as President in the interim period until the
next elections in February. Kikwete was not familiar with
Kgalema but was told this person is from the ANC National
Executive Council and is without a portfolio (NOTE: Kgalema
Motlanthe was swon in as President September 25. END NOTE.)
Kikwete had not yet spoken with Mbeki since news of his
recall surfaced and called the development &unfortunate8.

3.(C) Zimbabwe: A/S Frazer expressed concern about the recent
deadlock over the creation of the new cabinet following the
agreement to form a coalition government in Zimbabwe.
Kikwete said he met with President Mugabe in Lusaka in early
September and pressed him to consider giving the Interior
Ministry to the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) (Note:
Interior is likely a reference to Home Affairs. End Note).
A/S Frazer noted the ZANU-PF Central Committee is rebelling
against the peace agreement, which is in turn hindering
efforts to find agreement on the allocation of cabinet seats.
Tsvangirai needs and the USG supports giving MDC control of
the Reserve Bank, the Department of Finance, and Home
Affairs. Kikwete noted that the current impasse is one which
&we should be able to overcome8 and offered to talk to
Tsvangirai to &see what we can do.8 A/S Frazer described
the USG as in a wait-and-see mode noting that the USG is
looking for an economic team that can re-establish confidence
in Zimbabwe. She noted the USG is in a position to either
roll back existing sanctions against individuals and
parastatals or move forward with other new sanctions
depending on how things progress in Zimbabwe. Kikwete argued
against new sanctions because of the poor shape of the
Zimbabwe economy. Kikwete also stressed that despite the
uniqueness of the current peace agreement (ironically
referring to it as a &masterpiece8) it is vital to ending
the suffering of the Zimbabwean population.

4.(C) Sudan: A/S Frazer told Kikwete the USG is not willing
to support an Article XVI motion to defer the indictment of
President Bashir, and would veto any such motion in the UN.
The USG is hopeful the International Criminal Court will not
take up the Bashir indictment until December, although the
USG needs to see real improvements on the ground in Darfur
before reconsidering its position. A/S Frazer outlined three
key areas where Government of Sudan (GOS) cooperation is
necessary: 1) demonstrating concrete efforts to facilitate
the deployment of peacekeepers on the ground in Darfur; 2)
actively reaching out to the rebels in Darfur to establish a
peace deal; and 3) allowing humanitarian access, particularly
in southern Darfur. A/S Frazer said the USG believes the GOS
can make positive progress in these three areas and noted
that when such actions are taken, the USG will reconsider its
position on Article XVI. Kikwete said he discussed many of
these issues with Bashir during a recent visit to Sudan. He
said he warned Bashir there is a growing perception he is a
stumbling block to the deployment of UN Peacekeepers. Bashir
told him he is willing to accept Nepalese and Thai (i.e.
non-African) peacekeepers and would welcome helicopters,
&even if they were from the United States8. Kikwete
stressed that it is most important to have UNAMID deploy now
to establish peace and address the humanitarian crisis. He
also expressed some frustration with the United Nations
Department of Peace Keeping Operations (UNDPKO) noting that
many African countries have troops ready to make sacrifices,
but UNDPKO has established standards that preclude many
countries from participating. A/S Frazer acknowledged the
delays are partially caused by UNDPKO, but stressed that a
significant part of the blame remains with the GOS, which is
hindering efforts significantly. Kikwete said he would
discuss these issues further with Sudan Vice President Ali
Osman Taha on September 22, and is meeting Secretary General
Ban Ki-moon on September 24, at which time he would raise his
concerns about UNDPKO.

5.(C) Eastern Congo: A/S Frazer noted increasing concern over
the continued existence of Democratic Forces for the
Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) and other rebel groups in Eastern
Congo. Frosty relations between Democratic Republic of Congo
(DRC) President Joseph Kabila and Rwandan President Paul
Kagame are hampering efforts at finding a regional way
forward. She noted Kagame declined to participate in a
meeting with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and Kabila to
discuss the situation in Eastern Congo, because he views the
issue as one the DRC should handle on its own.
Unfortunately, A/S Frazer noted, DRC forces are neither
disciplined nor have the capacity to fight rebel groups as
evidenced by their defeat by Laruant Nkunda,s National
Congress for the Defense of the People forces earlier this
year. Given the lack of will on the part of the Government
of Rwanda (GOR) and capacity on the part of DRC, there is no
clear strategy for moving forward. A/S Frazer argued that
Kabila needs outside assistance to address the threat of
Nkunda,s and other rebel groups and urged Kikwete to discuss
these concerns and work with both leaders to find a solution.
Kikwete said he plans to meet with Kabila and Kagame this
week and will discuss these issues further with them.


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