NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE, OPPOSITION RALLY FALL FLAT

UNCLAS SOFIA 000121

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE, OPPOSITION RALLY FALL FLAT

Ref: (A) SOFIA 00017, (B) SOFIA 00018


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: PM Stanishev's coalition government on February
22 easily survived a vote of no confidence over corruption
allegations. A united opposition protest rally February 21 in
support of the vote failed to draw support, adding to the
opposition's embarrassment. The opposition knew it could not win
the vote against the coalition's majority but hoped to shake the
government and stir up the public. Its gambit only demonstrated its
weakness and reinforced the public perception that the government is
likely to serve out its full term through mid-2009. END SUMMARY
THE VOTE: ALLEGATIONS OF CORRUPTION
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2. (U) The no-confidence motion, the fourth submitted against the
current government, came in the wake of a European Commission report
criticizing Bulgaria for lack of progress in fight against
high-level corruption and organized crime. It also followed a
high-profile corruption scandal at the National Roads Agency that
led to the dismissal of the agency's chief and the suspension of EU
funds. Unlike the previous three motions, the fourth was the first
attempt to coordinate all the parliamentary opposition -- three
small center-right groups, extreme nationalist party Ataka and a
newly-formed group of 17 NMS defectors -- and GERB, the rising new
populist party of Sofia Mayor Borissov. (Note: having been launched
after the latest parliamentary elections, GERB has no seats in
parliament.)

3. (SBU) A lackluster eight-hour parliamentary debate preceded the
vote, centering on the opposition's charges of corruption in
procurement contracts and absorption of EU funds, cases of
government officials' ties with shadowy groups, nepotism, and
conflicts of interest. Ruling coalition MPs struck back by saying
the center-right opposition had little credibility on corruption,
given its own track-record during its 1997-2001 cabinet. The
liveliest moment in the debate came when PM Stanishev mocked the
opposition by himself unveiling its "shadow cabinet," naming
Borissov PM and allotting deputy PM seats to two other opposition
leaders with outsized egos and tattered reputations -- former
center-right PM Ivan Kostov and Ataka leader Volen Siderov. The
coalition handily defeated the motion with 149 votes to the
opposition's 86. PM Stanishev called on the ruling majority not to
become complacent but to work to stamp out corruption in the public
sector.

Rally Flops
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4. (SBU) On the day of the parliamentary debate, the main
opposition parties staged a joint rally in central Sofia to protest
against corruption in the government and demand its resignation and
snap elections. In addition to supporting the no-confidence vote,
the rally was intended to raise the profile of the opposition. The
small center-right parties and GERB billed it as a first step toward
coordination ahead of the next general elections and predicted a
turnout of 100,000. The actual turnout was about 4,500. The bulk
of the protestors were supporters of Ataka and GERB who were bused
in from the country. Some admitted in front of TV cameras they had
been paid to attend ("Ataka people paid with GERB money," according
to some observers). Few from the traditional center-right parties
-- the Union of Democratic Forces (UDF) and ex-PM Kostov's Democrats
for Strong Bulgaria (DSB),showed up.

5. (SBU) Opposition leaders were embarrassed and told us they
neither believed they could trigger early elections, nor would they
want them. "The call for early elections is just a game we have to
play to keep our electorate motivated," a senior GERB official told
us. Both GERB and center-right politicians vowed this would be "the
first and the last" joint rally with extremist, anti-West Ataka,
saying the protest was needed to measure the mobilization of their
electorates. Both UDF and GERB politicians were unhappy with this
first action of the "joint opposition." An MP from ex-PM Kostov's
DSB went as far as to publish an op-ed piece in which he claimed the
no-confidence motion was a useless move that only exposed the
impotence of the opposition, which is not ready to govern.
Bulgarian media also ridiculed the "pathetic action of the joint
opposition," noting that instead of exposing existing corruption in
the government, it only underlined the weakness of the center-right
opposition and legitimized extreme nationalist Ataka.

COMMENT
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6. (SBU) COMMENT: The small center-right parties and GERB flopped
in their first attempt to coordinate political action and energize
their supporters. The opposition's ill-conceived efforts made the
ruling coalition appear more stable in comparison. Despite public
unhappiness about corruption, recent opinion polls show the majority
of Bulgarians do not want early elections and expect the ruling
coalition to finish its mandate. Pundits and politicians agree that
at this stage, any serious challenge to the coalition would more
likely come from internal tensions rather than from the opposition.
END COMMENT.