BULGARIA'S KOSOVO BALANCING ACT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000114

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV UNMIK YI EU BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA'S KOSOVO BALANCING ACT

Classified By: Ambassador Beyrle for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: MFA Political Director Poriazov told us
Bulgarian recognition of Kosovo would not happen for at
least several weeks. The Kosovars first had to incorporate
the Ahtisaari Plan into their constitution, then the Council
of Ministers would start the two-week process on
recognition. In the meantime Bulgaria will monitor the
Kosovo government's behavior on the ground. Taking these
steps and the time it takes to do so, Poriazov said, will
make it easier for the government to justify recognition
with both its population and the Serbs. Poriazov asked for
U.S. support for Bulgaria's participation in the new
International Steering Group to monitor Kosovo's adherence
to the Ahtisaari Plan. Sofia hopes to bring Serbs and
Kosovars together at the Stability Pact meeting it is
hosting on February 27 but fears the Serbs will not
cooperate. In a separate meeting, Ambassador Beyrle told
Prime Minister Stanishev Serbia needed to hear from its
friend and neighbor Bulgaria that violence on the border
should be brought under control. End Summary.


2. (C) MFA Political Director Poriazov told us on
February 20 that Bulgaria would not recognize Kosovo until
it incorporates key elements of the Ahtisaari Plan into its
constitution. The process is underway in Kosovo's
parliament and should be complete quickly. Then the MFA
will submit its recognition proposal to the Council of
Ministers, which will have a maximum of two weeks to
approve. In the meantime, Bulgaria will also monitor the
actions of Kosovo authorities on the ground; their behavior
has been quite responsible and he hoped it would continue.


3. (C) Poriazov explained that the Ahtisaari legislation
and on the ground monitoring were necessary for internal
purposes. He repeated that it was important to take this
time for public opinion to get used to the new reality and
also to diminish nervousness in Belgrade. Poriazov added
that the Serbs had strongly asked Bulgaria not to be among
the first to recognize, which he interpreted to mean not
within the first few weeks. He went on to say that if the
situation deteriorates Bulgaria would seek further
discussions with our European and American partners.

Serbs and Kosovars at Stability Pact
--------------


4. (C) Under any circumstances, Poriazov continued, Sofia
would not recognize Kosovo before the Stability Pact
meeting it is hosting on February 27, where it hopes to get
Serbs and Kosovars to sit at the same table. Pristina has
already accepted the invitation, sent before the
declaration of independence, to attend as part of UNMIK.
The Serbs have not yet responded. Poriazov expressed fear
that Serbia might try to veto Pristina's participation or
boycott.

Parliamentary Debate
--------------


5. (C) Poriazov said some Bulgarian Socialist Party MPs
wanted to debate recognition in parliament starting next
week. The MFA preferred to avoid a public debate but the
government could not refuse the deputies. On the other
hand, Poriazov said, the center-right opposition supports
recognition and the debate might actually reassure the
public and make it easier for the government to recognize.
He reaffirmed that the government, not the parliament, has
the authority to make the decision on recognition.

Membership in International Steering Group
--------------


6. (C) Poriazov asked for U.S. support for Bulgaria's
membership on the new International Steering Group to
monitor Kovoso's compliance with the Ahtisaari plan.
Bulgaria had already consulted with the UK, France, Germany
and Italy and hoped to be invited to join. He emphasized
that it would be good to have a neighboring state on the
Steering Group.

PM Stanishev
--------------


7. (C) In a separate meeting on February 20 PM Stanishev
told the Ambassador that recognition was tied to the
Kosovar Albanians implementing the Ahtisaari plan and
repeated that Bulgaria stood to lose the most from
instability. The Ambassador noted that all of the violence
until now had been Serb instigated and that the Serbs
needed to hear from their friend and neighbor the
expectation that they would rein this in. Stanishev asked
the Ambassador for his view on the position Bulgaria had

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adopted; Beyrle said it was obviously an effort to stay
carefully balanced. The important thing was that Bulgaria
had said it will recognize Kosovo, and it needed to act on
those words.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) The GOB is finding ways to buy time -- Kosovo's
incorporating Ahtisaari into its constitution and its own
Council of Ministers process before it grants full
recognition of Kosovo. The government is balancing its
fear of negative Serbian and possibly local popular
reaction with its desire to be in line with the American
and majority EU position. Opposition criticism is growing:
former PM Philip Dimitrov accused the Socialist-led
government of fearing Russia,s reaction more than Serbia,s
-- a critique that stings. The Government argues that
with the passing of a few weeks, and recognition from more
European countries, it will be easier to explain its
decision to its public and to the Serbs. In the interim,
Bulgaria runs the risk of being lumped with the
EU-rejectionists as the "nuances" of its position are
lost in translation. End Comment.

Beyrle
Beyrle