Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08SKOPJE673
2008-11-06 14:52:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Skopje
Cable title:  

DAS STUART JONES VISIT TO SKOPJE, OCTOBER 27-29

Tags:  NATO PGOV PHUM PREL KV AL MK 
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VZCZCXRO4720
RR RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSQ #0673/01 3111452
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 061452Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7790
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE 0431
RUESEN/SKOPJE BETA
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000673 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2012
TAGS: NATO PGOV PHUM PREL KV AL MK
SUBJECT: DAS STUART JONES VISIT TO SKOPJE, OCTOBER 27-29

Classified By: AMBASSADOR PHILIP REEKER FOR REASONS 1.5 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000673

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2012
TAGS: NATO PGOV PHUM PREL KV AL MK
SUBJECT: DAS STUART JONES VISIT TO SKOPJE, OCTOBER 27-29

Classified By: AMBASSADOR PHILIP REEKER FOR REASONS 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: In addition to discussions on the name issue,
Macedonian leaders discussed regional, economic, and
bilateral issues with EUR DAS Jones during his October 27-29
visit. GoM officials pressed for further development of the
Trade Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) U.S. cooperation
for developing the Krivolak military grounds for
counter-terrorism training, and consideration of Macedonia
joining the visa waiver program. Most interlocutors believe
Serbia is coming to grips with Kosovo's independence, but
expressed concerns about the future in Kosovo and Bosnia.
GoM leaders believe Macedonia will avoid a banking crisis,
but expect an economic downturn nonetheless. Opposition
politicians slammed the Gruevski government, calling it
undemocratic and leading the economy to ruin. During this
visit, Jones met with President Crvenkovski, PM Gruevski, FM
Milososki, DUI Party leader Ahmeti, SDSM Secretary General
Ivanovski, and numerous members of parliament, the diplomatic
corps, the media, and the academy. End summary.

-------------- --
ECONOMY AND INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT IN MACEDONIA
-------------- --


2. (SBU) In preparation for Ambassador Reeker's participation
in the Macedonian Embassy's San Francisco and Chicago
Business Forum conferences in November, DAS Jones and the
Ambassador discussed Macedonia's economic and investment
environment during their meetings. The PM and FM both feel
the financial markets in Macedonia are safe from any
immediate affects of the world economic crisis but expressed
deeper concern for the impact it would have on the real
economy and foreign investment in Macedonia. Both feel
Macedonia has taken positive steps to encourage foreign
investment in Macedonia's economy but stated that the crisis
has already caused potential foreign and domestic investors
to delay or pull out of many investments. The PM expects the
crisis to begin to have a negative impact on Macedonia's
growth in the fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of


2009. Local World Bank, European Development Bank, IMF and
EU representatives believe Macedonia has done well to
legislate economic reforms but had failed to effectively
implement the new laws. They cite instances where potential
investors were poorly received, and they expressed concerns
about government follow-through once investors were
established in Macedonia. SDSM's Ivanovski believes
Macedonia has significant political and security problems
that must be resolved before Macedonia will become attractive
to investors. Ivanovski and the FM both commented on how the
crisis would impact the metal industry, which is already in a
serious downturn. The FM claimed it was suffering due to
falling international prices, whereas Ivanovski pointed to
the government's current reduction in energy subsidy support
to Feni (Macedonia's nickel plant) as irresponsible political
maneuvering that would further strain the industry.

-------------- --------------
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT UNDER STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT
-------------- --------------


3. (C) FM Milososki suggested the development of Macedonia's
TIFA, investment in and modernization of the Krivolak
Military Grounds to provide urban anti-terrorism training,
and beginning the process to get Macedonia on the visa waiver
program were three areas where the U.S. could provide support
to Macedonia under the Strategic Framework Agreement. DAS
Jones' recommended that Macedonia explore joint TIFA
development projects with other countries in the region;
Milososki agreed. Ambassador said he would examine
possibilities regarding the Krivolak Military Grounds. (In
follow-up conversation, the Embassy's Office of Defense
Cooperation stated they were planning to invest in military
facilities to meet at least some of those training needs.)
Finally, the DAS explained that the process for the visa
waiver program was very difficult, but cited Croatia as a
country that had made excellent progress. He suggested the FM
consult with his counterpart in Zagreb for more information
on the process and best practices.

--------------
BALKAN OUTLOOK
--------------


4. (C) All the Macedonian leaders DAS Jones met expressed
positive outlooks for the Balkan region. Crvenkovski feels
Serbia could no longer destabilize Kosovo, adding that
Belgrade needed to finally come to terms with Kosovo's
independence. However, he feels Serbian socialist factions
could still destabilize Serbia, and their upcoming

SKOPJE 00000673 002 OF 002


parliamentary elections would be critical to their future.
The FM was less optimistic on Kosovo,s stability and
believed once Kosovo came up short of their high expectations
the government could become unstable and problems could erupt
in the inter-ethnic northern region of the country. The
President and FM both agree the other potential hotspot in
the region is the separatist Republika Srpska in Bosnia.
Macedonian officials emphasize the positive role Macedonia
has played in regional security and development, clearly
attempting to make a case for increased pressure from the
U.S. for Macedonia,s NATO ambitions. Jones made it clear
there were no alternative routes to NATO membership, and that
Macedonia must continue with the UN-mediated process for
resolving the name issue.



5. (U) DAS Jones cleared this cable.
NAVRATIL