MACEDONIA: ANGRY SDSM RETURNS TO PARLIAMENT AS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000507

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: ANGRY SDSM RETURNS TO PARLIAMENT AS
VMRO-DUI COALITION MAINTAINS MOMENTUM

REF: A. SKOPJE 464

B. SKOPJE 496

SUMMARY


1. (C) President Crvenkovski reached agreement August 1 with
the main opposition party SDSM to end its boycott of
parliament and the Association of Local Self-Government Units
(ZELS). The party returned in exchange for a presidential
pardon on all charges against SDSM VP and Strumica mayor
Zoran Zaev and the President's refusal to sign all laws
passed by the VMRO-DUI coalition under emergency procedures
in the previous weeks. (The "veto" has no real effect;
parliament has already re-passed these and Crvenkovski is
obliged to sign them the second time around.) The President
also sought to broker eAlbanian party DPA,s return by
sending back the language law; there are indications that
DPA will return to Parliament after the recess to present
their language law proposal, but it is not certain this will
occur. Parliament is now in recess, but there is no real
modus vivendi between VMRO and SDSM, so the opposition's
continued participation is hardly guaranteed. Meanwhile, the
VMRO-DUI coalition will likely hold at least until next
spring. End Summary.

The President Makes a Deal
--------------


2. (U) On Aug. 1, President Crvenkovski crafted a
controversial two part deal, seeking to secure the return to
Parliament of boycotting opposition parties. His own party
SDSM agreed to return to Parliament following his pardon of
SDSM VP Zoran Zaev, initially arrested July 17 on corruption
charges in a manner that raised questions about the VMRO
Government's political motivations (reftel A). To attempt to
secure the return of e-Albanian opposition party DPA,
Crvenkovski used his "soft veto," refusing to sign the laws
rushed through Parliament in the last three weeks in the
absence of the opposition, including the language law (reftel
B),which DPA criticized as weak and regressive on the
official use of the Albanian language. Note: The President
is required by the Constitution to sign any laws re-passed by
a simple majority of Parliament following a veto. End note.


3. (U) SDSM's return to Parliament came sooner than expected,
as some dozen SDSM MPs returned from an official recess for
an August 4 "emergency session" convened to
re-pass the language law in order to overcome the President's
veto. With the opposition still absent,
Parliament also re-passed 58 laws on August 1 and 2, before
declaring a recess until August 25. SDSM's coalition
partners LDP, LP and NSDP did not participate in the August
4 session, but are expected to return after the recess.


4. (SBU) DPA did not return to Parliament for the August 4
emergency session, and in a concurrent press conference party
leaders called the session "the height of arrogance and a
violation of all democratic procedures." DPA's Imer Aliu told
us that they will return to Parliament after the
recess, and will bring to the table their own draft language
law. However, DPA has not officially announced this, and
other DPA contacts would not say definitively whether the
party would indeed return.

Constitutional Crisis Averted: The Laws Will Stand
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) The President's Chief of Staff, Natasha Savova, told
us August 5 that the President will sign the re-passed laws,
including the Language Law, upon his return from vacation in
Turkey. There has been speculation that he would refuse to
do so, since re-passage of many of the laws occurred before
he formally notified the Parliament of his initial intent not
to sign. A refusal to sign the re-passed laws could have
sparked a constitutional crisis, and a lengthy delay of
Parliamentary activities for a constitutional court review.

SDSM: No Problem with the Language Law, But Problems with
Procedures
-------------- --------------


SKOPJE 00000507 002 OF 002



6. (U) In the August 4 emergency session, SDSM MPs present
voted with the VMRO-DUI coalition in favor of the language
law, passing it with a vote of 75-0. Prior to their return,
SDSM leaders had indicated that they did not have a problem
with the substance of the law, but with the Parliamentary
procedures. Most of SDSM's floor time in the August 4 debate
was devoted to criticizing the calling of
an emergency session during the recess, and noting that they
were not informed of the 3:00 pm session until 12:30 pm,
making it impossible for many MPs to return from vacation.
SDSM MPs repeatedly called the new Parliamentary rulebook
passed in their absence "your rulebook" in addressing
Parliamentary President Trajko Veljanovski. The session was
procedurally challenging, and a visibly irritated Veljanovski
called for two recesses to "coordinate."


VMRO-DUI Coalition to Hold...For Now
--------------


7. (C) In the short run, it is unlikely that either SDSM or
DPA will be able to use often tense VMRO-DUI dynamics as a
wedge to increase their influence. DUI MP Teuta Arifi
confirmed to us the existence of a much-rumored secret
document outlining the coalition agreement between DUI
and VMRO, calling for many of the same elements as in the May
29 agreement: the language law, benefits for victims --
including eAlbanians -- of the 2001 violence; and equitable
representation in state institutions. Additionally, the
document notes VMRO,s commitment to recognize Kosovo, but
only after the successful demarcation of key areas of the
border (the same line the GOM has taken with us on this
issue). DUI will also support its VMRO partner in the name
dispute with Greece, as long as any new name does not contain
a reference to the Slavic, or Yugoslav, character of
the country. She added that the VRMO-DUI agreement is a
one-year plan.


8. (C) Senior DUI leader and Minister for Local
Self-Government Musa Xhaferi also told us that he doesn't
expect the period of DUI's peaceful coexistence in the
VMRO-coalition to exceed this period without further
concessions from VMRO, saying that while the party took the
politically expedient course and agreed to incremental
progress on the use of Albanian in the new language law, DUI
plans to increase the pressure on the Government for more
tangible progress on this and other issues important to the
e-Albanian community following next spring's local elections
(reftel B).

DPA Out in the Cold?
--------------


9. (SBU) As for DPA, its demands for returning to parliament
are not all that different from what VMRO and DUI reportedly
agreed to, though DPA is pushing harder on issues such as the
uses of flags and the recently-returned ICTY cases (DPA wants
all charges dropped). Should VMRO-DUI dynamics remain on
track, it would seem to give DPA increasingly less traction
in its claim to be the genuine standard-bearer for the
interests of the eAlbanian community.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Crvenkovski's actions produced a rhetorical outburst
from VMRO, and some concerns within SDSM regarding the
lingering damage Zaev will suffer as a result of the pardon.
But they did serve as a catalyst to end the Parliamentary
crisis prior to the August recess. SDSM has decided to
change tactics vis-a-vis VMRO, by supporting Government
proposals they agree with (e.g. language law, pension
increases) and being more selective in their criticisms.
Both VMRO and SDSM have an interest in a Parliament that
appears to function. We are encouraging a return to the
practice of periodic leadership meetings as a means of
maximizing prospects of success.
Navratil