Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08SKOPJE463
2008-07-18 11:21:00
SECRET//NOFORN
Embassy Skopje
Cable title:
MACEDONIA: CHOD'S CONCERNS ABOUT IMPACT OF MOD
how-toVZCZCXRO0768 PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV DE RUEHSQ #0463/01 2001121 ZNY SSSSS ZZH P 181121Z JUL 08 FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7530 INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE 0367 RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC RUESEN/SKOPJE BETA RUEHSQ/USDAO SKOPJE MK RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000463
SIPDIS
NOFORN
STATE FOR EUR/SCE
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/19/2018
TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: CHOD'S CONCERNS ABOUT IMPACT OF MOD
UNDERFUNDING ON NATO BID
REF: IIR 6 949 0114 08 (USDAO SKOPJE)
Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4 (B) & (D).
SUMMARY
---------
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000463
SIPDIS
NOFORN
STATE FOR EUR/SCE
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/19/2018
TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: CHOD'S CONCERNS ABOUT IMPACT OF MOD
UNDERFUNDING ON NATO BID
REF: IIR 6 949 0114 08 (USDAO SKOPJE)
Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4 (B) & (D).
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (S/NF) The GOM's July 15 budget rebalance transfers 14
million euros from the MOD to the MOI, heavily impacting
future Macedonian military readiness, and calling into
question its ability to meet its commitments in Iraq and
Afghanistan. According to CHOD LTG Stojanovski, it also
suggests the government is moving toward greater
isolationism, which could negatively impact Macedonia's NATO
bid. If the budget trend continues -- downsizing the MOD and
other ministry budgets in order to beef up the MOI --
Stojanovski's prediction of an isolationist scenario for
Macedonia could prove to be accurate. End summary.
BUDGET REBALANCE: ROBBING PETER, PAYING PAUL
-------------- -
2. (S/NF) CHOD LTG Stojanovski told DAO July 17 that he was
concerned about the Gruevski government's future support for
the military and the MOD's ability to meet its international
commitments. He noted the July 15 mid-year budget rebalance
had transferred 14 million euros from the MOD budget to the
MOI budget, ostensibly to provide equipment for civilian
police. He added that the Finance Minister had indicated to
him that the MOD's budget would continue to drop over the
coming years, while the MOI's budget grew in proportion.
3. (S/NF) Stojanovski complained that the Minister of Defense
had not/not been consulted on the budget rebalance
beforehand, and pointed out that defense spending for 2008
would now drop below the 2 percent of GDP NATO target, to
about 1.9 percent. The funding shortfall, he continued, also
meant that would not be adequate funding for procurement,
training, or maintenance of equipment during the remainder of
the calendar year.
IMPACT ON IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN DEPLOYMENTS UNCERTAIN
-------------- --------------
4. (S/NF) The CHOD said that, although he had not yet
evaluated the impact of the budget cut on troop deployments
to Iraq and Afghanistan, he was concerned about the impact of
the reduction on the military's ability to train and equip
the troops for the for May 2009 rotations. Without adequate
funding, he believed the military would not be able to
maintain its current preparedness level, ability to defend
the territorial integrity of Macedonia, or its longer-term
deployment commitments in Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, and
Bosnia.
5. (S/NF) Stojanovski indicated he would ask President
Crvenkovski to convene a meeting of the National Security
Council (President, PM Gruevski, MOD, CHOD, MOI, FM
Milososki, President of Parliament, and ad hoc members) to
discuss the funding shortfall, underscoring the urgency of
the matter. He added that he would send a non-political
message to the troops on July 21 informing them of the budget
cut and the impact it would have on operations. Stojanovski
noted his assessment that anticipated budget transfers would
allow the MOI to train and equip its police forces to reach a
readiness and capability level -- in five months -- that had
taken the Macedonian military 10 years to achieve.
GOM MOVING TOWARD ISOLATIONISM?
--------------
6. (S/NF) Stojanovski said he believed the funding cut was
directly linked to the Greek veto of Macedonia's NATO bid at
the Bucharest Summit in April. Having failed to receive an
invitation, despite its having met NATO performance
standards, Macedonia was now moving to "self-isolate," he
said. He believed the MOI's police forces would gradually be
strengthened over the coming years, while the military was
steadily downsized.
COMMENT
SKOPJE 00000463 002 OF 002
--------------
7. (S/NF) Although Stojanovski is close to President
Crvenkovski, who has been sharply critical of government
actions in recent weeks, he is also a professional soldier
who has never let political expedience cloud his military
judgment or assessments. We believe he is seriously
concerned about the future of the military, and we will raise
his concerns with the Foreign Minister and PM Gruevski next
week. We note that opposition politicians raised similar
concerns during parliamentary consideration of the budget
re-balance earlier this week. If the current budget trend
continues -- beefing up the MOI at the expense of the MOD and
other ministry budgets -- then Stojanovski's grim prediction
of an isolationist scenario for Macedonia could prove
accurate in the end.
Milovanovic
SIPDIS
NOFORN
STATE FOR EUR/SCE
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/19/2018
TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: CHOD'S CONCERNS ABOUT IMPACT OF MOD
UNDERFUNDING ON NATO BID
REF: IIR 6 949 0114 08 (USDAO SKOPJE)
Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4 (B) & (D).
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (S/NF) The GOM's July 15 budget rebalance transfers 14
million euros from the MOD to the MOI, heavily impacting
future Macedonian military readiness, and calling into
question its ability to meet its commitments in Iraq and
Afghanistan. According to CHOD LTG Stojanovski, it also
suggests the government is moving toward greater
isolationism, which could negatively impact Macedonia's NATO
bid. If the budget trend continues -- downsizing the MOD and
other ministry budgets in order to beef up the MOI --
Stojanovski's prediction of an isolationist scenario for
Macedonia could prove to be accurate. End summary.
BUDGET REBALANCE: ROBBING PETER, PAYING PAUL
-------------- -
2. (S/NF) CHOD LTG Stojanovski told DAO July 17 that he was
concerned about the Gruevski government's future support for
the military and the MOD's ability to meet its international
commitments. He noted the July 15 mid-year budget rebalance
had transferred 14 million euros from the MOD budget to the
MOI budget, ostensibly to provide equipment for civilian
police. He added that the Finance Minister had indicated to
him that the MOD's budget would continue to drop over the
coming years, while the MOI's budget grew in proportion.
3. (S/NF) Stojanovski complained that the Minister of Defense
had not/not been consulted on the budget rebalance
beforehand, and pointed out that defense spending for 2008
would now drop below the 2 percent of GDP NATO target, to
about 1.9 percent. The funding shortfall, he continued, also
meant that would not be adequate funding for procurement,
training, or maintenance of equipment during the remainder of
the calendar year.
IMPACT ON IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN DEPLOYMENTS UNCERTAIN
-------------- --------------
4. (S/NF) The CHOD said that, although he had not yet
evaluated the impact of the budget cut on troop deployments
to Iraq and Afghanistan, he was concerned about the impact of
the reduction on the military's ability to train and equip
the troops for the for May 2009 rotations. Without adequate
funding, he believed the military would not be able to
maintain its current preparedness level, ability to defend
the territorial integrity of Macedonia, or its longer-term
deployment commitments in Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, and
Bosnia.
5. (S/NF) Stojanovski indicated he would ask President
Crvenkovski to convene a meeting of the National Security
Council (President, PM Gruevski, MOD, CHOD, MOI, FM
Milososki, President of Parliament, and ad hoc members) to
discuss the funding shortfall, underscoring the urgency of
the matter. He added that he would send a non-political
message to the troops on July 21 informing them of the budget
cut and the impact it would have on operations. Stojanovski
noted his assessment that anticipated budget transfers would
allow the MOI to train and equip its police forces to reach a
readiness and capability level -- in five months -- that had
taken the Macedonian military 10 years to achieve.
GOM MOVING TOWARD ISOLATIONISM?
--------------
6. (S/NF) Stojanovski said he believed the funding cut was
directly linked to the Greek veto of Macedonia's NATO bid at
the Bucharest Summit in April. Having failed to receive an
invitation, despite its having met NATO performance
standards, Macedonia was now moving to "self-isolate," he
said. He believed the MOI's police forces would gradually be
strengthened over the coming years, while the military was
steadily downsized.
COMMENT
SKOPJE 00000463 002 OF 002
--------------
7. (S/NF) Although Stojanovski is close to President
Crvenkovski, who has been sharply critical of government
actions in recent weeks, he is also a professional soldier
who has never let political expedience cloud his military
judgment or assessments. We believe he is seriously
concerned about the future of the military, and we will raise
his concerns with the Foreign Minister and PM Gruevski next
week. We note that opposition politicians raised similar
concerns during parliamentary consideration of the budget
re-balance earlier this week. If the current budget trend
continues -- beefing up the MOI at the expense of the MOD and
other ministry budgets -- then Stojanovski's grim prediction
of an isolationist scenario for Macedonia could prove
accurate in the end.
Milovanovic