Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08SKOPJE394
2008-06-17 08:31:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Skopje
Cable title:  

MACEDONIA: ELECTION RE-RUNS PASS MUSTER;

Tags:  PREL PGOV NATO MK 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO1091
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSQ #0394/01 1690831
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 170831Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7441
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE 0345
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/CDR TF FALCON
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUESEN/SKOPJE BETA
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000394 

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: ELECTION RE-RUNS PASS MUSTER;
SHORTCOMINGS REMAIN

REF: SKOPJE 390 AND PREVIOUS

SUMMARY
---------

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000394

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: ELECTION RE-RUNS PASS MUSTER;
SHORTCOMINGS REMAIN

REF: SKOPJE 390 AND PREVIOUS

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) The conduct of voting in parliamentary election
re-runs on June 15 improved substantially compared to the
June 1 elections, which had been marred by violence,
intimidation and widespread electoral fraud. Significantly
and visibly increased police presence created a safer, more
secure voting environment; police acted decisively in several
instances to detain trouble-makers. Despite the improvement,
election observers noted serious irregularities -- including
ballot stuffing and proxy voting -- at a number of polling
stations. In a number of stations, the local election board
(with mostly DPA members) was complicit in the fraud. The
results of the voting, according to State Electoral
Commission figures, give eAlbanian DUI a strong lead (18
seats) over governing coalition rival DPA (11 seats). ODIHR
assessed the re-run voting positively, but said that would
not change its overall assessment that the parliamentary
elections had fallen short of key OSCE and Council of Europe
commitments. DPA intends to appeal the re-voting in DUI
strongholds, where it claims (unrealistically) that DUI
activists "stole" roughly 35,000 votes. We assess that DPA's
more prevalent involvement in electoral fraud was off-set by
the freedom for DUI's voters to vote, and that the June 15
results announced by the SEC are valid and should be the
basis for acting to seat parliament and form a new
government. End summary.

VOTING IRREGULARITIES
--------------


2. (U) Mostly ethnic Albanian citizens voted in parliamentary
election re-runs in nearly 187 polling stations in three of
Macedonia's six electoral districts on June 15.
International and domestic election monitors observed regular
voting procedures in most polling stations, but also noted
serious irregularities -- including ballot stuffing, proxy
voting, and failure to follow proper procedures in the
conduct and counting of the vote -- in a number of other
stations. The State Electoral Commission (SEC) closed four
polling stations after observers noted serious procedural
irregularities and unidentified persons stole ballot
materials.


3. (U) Large numbers of eAlbanian women voted, most of them

brought to polling stations by male relatives or -- in a
negative departure from past elections -- by party activists
who instructed them which candidate to vote for. Overall
turnout in the three districts was 48.9 percent of registered
voters, well below the June 1 national turnout of about 57
percent. The SEC has ordered re-runs in four polling
stations that were closed on June 15 due to various
irregularities. The re-voting will involve approximately
3,000 registered voters, possibly enough to affect only one
MP seat.

TIGHTER SECURITY, POLICE PROACTIVE
--------------


4. (SBU) Security for the voting improved significantly
compared to June 1, when police around polling stations were
only lightly deployed and election monitors noted numerous
instances of police complicity in electoral fraud. The
Ministry of Interior's (MOI's) revised security plan called
for a more robust uniformed police and police special forces
presence, which was apparent at nearly all polling stations.
This was a very positive deterrent to party thugs, and
contributed to preventing violence and overt intimidation.


5. (SBU) Police pre-emptively detained known party agitators
at one polling station, arrested two individuals for stealing
a ballot box, and detained one male for brandishing his
pistol in a polling station. At several polling sites, Local
Election Board (LEB) members asked police to withdraw
entirely from the station, but the police refused to do so.
No major security incidents were reported, and previous
security "hot spots" -- in Cair and Arachinovo -- remained
quiet throughout the day, indicating that party leaders did

SKOPJE 00000394 002 OF 002


instruct their supporters and enforcers not to cause trouble
(reftel).

RESULTS GIVE DUI STRONG LEAD OVER DPA
--------------


6. (U) The SEC published initial results of the voting
showing eAlbanian opposition DUI with a strong lead over DPA,
the eAlbanian coalition partner of governing VMRO. According
to SEC figures, VMRO now has 63 seats in the 120-seat
parliament (retaining its absolute majority),while
opposition SDSM trails with just 27 MPs. DUI has 18 seats,
DPA 11, and a multi-ethnic "micro-party" has one MP.
According to the SEC, the new parliament should be
constituted on June 20.

DUI CROWS, DPA CRIES FOUL
--------------


7. (SBU) DUI VP Teuta Arifi told us June 15 that the party
was pleased with the results of the voting, and that the June
15 process has been "fair and correct." She said DUI also
was pleased with the heavier police presence, but planned
nevertheless to complain about government inaction that had
made the re-run voting necessary to begin with, a position
echoing comments made by ODIHR and other observers. DPA
initially claimed victory in the voting, insisting that it
had won 13 seats and that it had stemmed the DUI tide. By
late in the evening on June 15, however, DPA's spokesman
said the party was convinced DUI had "stolen" more than
35,000 of the votes it had received in traditional DUI
strongholds, and that it would appeal poll results in many of
those areas. (Comment: We believe DPA may hope to maintain
inter-party tensions and drag out the government formation
process through repeated appeals and revoting, an approach we
will oppose. End Comment.)

PEACEFUL RE-RUNS DON'T CHANGE ODIHR'S OVERALL ASSESSMENT
-------------- --------------


8. (U) ODIHR assessed the re-runs positively, noting that the
significant security improvements had "enabled most people to
freely cast their vote." ODIHR added, however, that that did
not "alter the assessment that while well-administered,
certain key OSCE and Council of Europe commitments were not
met in the overall parliamentary election process." It also
noted that "cases of tensions and intimidation remained
evident in the run-up to and on June 15."

COMMENT
--------------


9. (SBU) If DPA succeeds in its appeals (due 48 hours after
the June 15 voting),yet another round of re-voting is
unlikely to change the overall outcome significantly. We
will work on getting the government and political parties to
focus instead on forming a new parliament quickly, and on the
coalition-building negotiations likely to take place over the
next several weeks. PM Gruevski could find it difficult to
again woo DPA, since the re-run results clearly indicate that
party was at fault for the bulk of the June 1 irregularities.
He also will also find it difficult to cut a deal with DUI,
however, given the likelihood that DUI's strong, 18-seat win
will drive it to make maximalist demands of Gruevski.
Gruevski's own 63-seat absolute majority, in turn, will
further compound coalition talks, since he will insist on
negotiating from a position of strength in which substantial
concessions to a junior coalition partner -- especially to
DUI -- will be difficult to justify to his grassroots
supporters. We will begin working immediately with our EU
colleagues to induce flexibility in the DUI position, using
the goodwill earned over the past weeks as we have pushed the
GOM and the SEC to ensure a freer, fairer voting process that
has -- in the end -- more accurately reflected the will of
the eAlbanian voters.
Milovanovic