MACEDONIA: STATE ELECTORAL COMMISSION RULES ON

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000372

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: STATE ELECTORAL COMMISSION RULES ON
ELECTION RE-RUNS IN 196 POLLING STATIONS

REF: SKOPJE 368

SUMMARY


1. (SBU) Following a review of political parties' complaints
of irregularities and violence during the June 1
parliamentary elections (reftel),the State Electoral
Commission has invalidated voting in 196 polling stations.
The SEC decision opens a window for as many as 170,000 voters
in northwestern Macedonia to cast ballots in re-runs of early
Parliamentary elections scheduled for June 15. ODIHR's HoM
positively characterized the SEC ruling as "revolutionary in
light of past practices." The list of polling stations will
be finalized later this week, after the Supreme Court reviews
parties' appeals. In response to international community
pressure and in an effort to improve the security environment
in the Municipal Electoral Commissions (MECs) and Local
Election Boards (LEBs) for the re-runs, the SEC also voted to
fire six MEC presidents cited as having contributed to the
irregularities. The impact of the SEC's decision to broadly
re-run elections in disputed areas on Macedonia's ability to
regain ground lost in the violence and fraud-marred June 1
elections will depend largely on the security climate during
the June 15 re-runs. End Summary.


2. (SBU) On June 6, the State Electoral Commission (SEC)
completed its review of political parties' and observers'
complaints of irregularities, intimidation, and violence in
the June 1 elections. The SEC annulled the voting of 196
polling stations in three Electoral Districts in northwestern
Macedonia. Approximately 170,000 voters are registered in
the polling stations in which the results were invalidated.


3. (SBU) By law, re-runs must be held on June 15, but a
final list of polling stations to be included in the re-runs
is not expected until late on June 13, following a 48-hour
period for parties' appeals to the Supreme Court, an
additional 48 hours for the Supreme Court to decide on each
of the appeals, and a final decision by the SEC to re-run the
elections in the polling stations in which voting was
invalidated. (Note: Unless the Supreme Court unexpectedly
overrules the SEC's decisions in a large number of polling
stations, we expect re-runs in all polling stations in which
voting was invalidated. End note.) Concerned that his
party's mandate would be clouded by election problems, Prime
Minister Gruevski offered strong public support for a broad
re-run of disputed polling stations during the SEC's
deliberations: "I expect the SEC to carefully review the
complaints and if it has the slightest suspicion of
irregularities, to make a decision to re-run."


4. (SBU) All polling stations for which voting was
invalidated are in majority ethnic-Albanian areas. The bulk
of the polling stations are in the Tetovo and Gostivar
region, with a sizeable number in Aracinovo and Lipkovo, as
well as Saraj and Cair. Rival ethnic-Albanian parties DPA
and DUI had divergent views on the impartiality of the review
of complaints about polling stations. DPA announced it would
appeal the SECs' decision, disappointed that very few polling
station results in DUI strongholds were invalidated, while
the bulk of the appealed polling stations in DPA strongholds
were annulled. Press reported that DPA would boycott the
re-runs if the Supreme Court upheld the SEC's decision,
though DPA VP Selmani indicated to us that no such decision
had been made. DUI, in contrast, praised the SEC's decision
as "logical, fair, and based on fact."


5. (SBU) During the June 1 elections, a number of MECs and
LEBs were cited as allowing and/or contributing to election
fraud during the June 1 elections. We have encouraged the
GoM to bring in LEB and MEC members from outside the areas of
the disputed polling stations, as they would be less
susceptible to local influence and pressure. In its first
session following the marathon sessions to review parties'
complaints, the SEC voted to release from service six MEC
presidents in Tetovo, Gostivar, Saraj, Lipkovo, Bogovinje and
Brvenica because of their roles in election irregularities.
The SEC plans to assign on June 10 LEB members to polling
stations which will hold re-runs. According to a local
election-monitoring NGO, however, many LEB members have asked
to be excluded from the second round of voting, concerned

SKOPJE 00000372 002 OF 002


about security issues and pressure from the parties.


6. (SBU) Comment: Although the SEC's comprehensive review
of disputed polling stations and decision to broadly re-run
elections in areas where violence and fraud dominated were
supported by the PM and praised by ODIHR and the
international community, a successful second round of
elections is not guaranteed. ODIHR's long-term observers,
especially in the Gostivar area, are concerned that incidents
of violence and intimidation could increase in the second
round. They report that DUI supporters, many of whom were
restrained by party leaders in the first round, are
threatening to take up arms in the second round. MEC and LEB
members continue to report intimidation attempts by DPA
activists, and many do not want to serve for the second
round. Domestic observers from MOST also are concerned about
the security situation, but nonetheless plan to monitor about
70% of polling stations. Whether the SEC's decision to
broadly re-run elections in disputed areas will help
Macedonia regain ground lost in the violence- and
fraud-marred June 1 elections will depend largely on the
security situation at and around the polling stations for the
June 15 re-runs. End Comment.
Milovanovic