MACEDONIA: ELECTION COALITIONS READY FOR MAY 11

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000314

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: ELECTION COALITIONS READY FOR MAY 11
CAMPAIGN START

REF: SKOPJE 292 AND PREVIOUS

SUMMARY


1. (SBU) A week before the May 11 official kick-off of the
election campaign (reftel),the State Electoral Committee
(SEC) approved 19 party lists, including the VMRO-led
coalition "For Better Macedonia" and the opposition SDSM-led
"SUN - Coalition for Europe." Minority and small parties
traditionally allied with SDSM have abandoned the opposition
to join PM Gruevski's VMRO coalition. In exchange for
generous promises of ministerial positions and special
minority rights legislation, Gruevski appears to be trying to
accumulate ethnic minority votes that would help him achieve
double-majority votes on legislation affecting ethnic
minority interests. He also appears to be leaning toward a
renewed partnership with his eAlbanian governing partner DPA.
High-level eAlbanian DUI officials have warned that a repeat
of the VMRO-DPA coalition would signal a rejection of the
will of eAlbanian voters; they have suggested that such an
outcome could lead to the "federalization" of the country. A
recent opinion poll shows higher approval ratings for three
of the big four parties (VMRO, DPA and DUI),while SDSM's
approval rating is slightly lower. The clear front-runner,
VMRO, is gearing up for a decisive victory. With ODIHR
Long-Term Observers deployed to the field and a Code of
Conduct signed by over 30 party leaders, most preliminary
preparations are over and the parties are ready to kick-off
the official campaign season. End summary.

SEC APPROVES 19 PARTY LISTS
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2. (SBU) On May 5, the SEC confirmed the MP candidate lists
of 19 parties, coalitions and independents. The SEC was
expected to determine the parties' order on the ballot
through a random drawing on May 9. A May 2 SEC decision
stipulated that the Supreme Court --rather than the
Administrative Court-- would deal with allegations of
electoral rights infringements.


3. (SBU) The ruling VMRO party has formed the coalition "For
A Better Macedonia" with 18 other parties, including 10
minority parties. Opposition SDSM's coalition "SUN -
Coalition for Europe" comprises eight parties, including
former VMRO allies NSDP and LP. Three prominent NSDP
members, including former Minister of Defense Elenovski and
former Minister of Economy Rafajlovska, splintered off in
protest of NSDP's new coalition arrangement. On the
eAlbanian side, traditional rivals DUI, DPA and (the much
less influential) PDP were joined by the newly-formed DUA in
submitting candidate lists.

SMALLER PARTIES GRAVITATE TOWARDS PRESUMED VICTOR
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4. (SBU) In a May 7 meeting with PolOff, Democratic Party of
the Turks (DPT) President Hasipi stated that, after six years
in coalition with SDSM, the DPT was hesitatingly joining the
VMRO coalition and "choosing the lesser of two evils."
Less-than-elated with his new coalition partner, Hasipi
admitted that VMRO had given him a good deal: he received a
high position on the candidate list and a promise of a
Minister position in the new government.


5. (SBU) Democratic Party of Serbs (DPS) President
Stoiljkovic told us May 8 he had left his traditional
coalition partner SDSM, after 17 years, with the help of a
good "incentive package" from VMRO. In exchange for his
participation in VMRO's coalition, Stoiljkovic claimed he had
secured a guaranteed MP seat for himself; chairmanship of a
promised new agency on minority rights; one deputy minister
position; "several directorships of public enterprises;" and
MFA slots for "two foreign-educated sons of DPS members."
Probably overestimating his influence in the coalition,
Stoiljkovic said he had asked Gruevski to delay Kosovo
recognition by a few months. He added that he had warned
Gruevski that, as soon as Macedonia recognized Kosovo, he
would leave Parliament in protest.


6. (SBU) Boris Stojmenov, President of VMRO-Makedonska and

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owner of influential Kanal 5 TV, told PolOff May 8 it was
"quite natural" that his party had joined Gruevski's
coalition. Admitting that "some in the coalition have been
pressing me to make Kanal 5 a VMRO party channel," Stojmenov
asserted he would not succumb to the pressure. Stojmenov
interpreted Gruevski's promise to give him the Minister of
Economy job as evidence of Stojmenov's influence over
Gruevski, while playing down the role his TV station may have
during the campaign season.

GRUEVSKI GEARING UP FOR A BADINTER MAJORITY WITHOUT DUI?
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7. (SBU) Gruevski's "For A Better Macedonia" coalition
includes one Turkish, one Serbian, two Bosniak, one Vlach and
five Roma parties. The coalition seems certain to win at
least six minority MP seats in the next Parliament. That, in
addition to DPA's MPs, could help secure for Gruevski the
Badinter (double) majority of ethnic minority MPs he needs to
pass some laws. The big question remains how many of the
still undecided eAlbanian votes DPA will win.
VMRO-Makedonska's Stojmenov said Gruevski's recent public
support for DPA was meant "to help DPA get more eAlbanian
votes," but cautioned that it would be "bad for the country's
security" if Gruevski again chose DPA as a governing partner.


DUI RAISES THE SPECTER OF FEDERALIZATION
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8. (SBU) Unhappy with these developments, DUI President
Ahmeti said at a May 7 rally that, if VMRO chose as a partner
the eAlbanian party that received fewer votes (presumably
DPA) than the eAlbanian front-runner (presumably DUI),that
would mean that "the eMacedonians, and not we, are making
decisions about our future." DUI's election headquarters
chief went even further, confirming on May 8 to EmbOff that
he had told the Kosova Press Agency that "if the eMacedonians
ignore the eAlbanians' political will, that may lead the
eAlbanians to look for a different political and societal
organization, including federalization."

SDSM FIGHTING WITH CLONE SDPM
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9. (SBU) The Social Democratic Party of Macedonia (SDPM) has
stirred up passions here. Clearly intended to mislead SDSM
(the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia) supporters, the
SDPM list has candidates with similar or identical names to
those of the SDSM-led coalition (e.g. Rada Sekerova (SDPM)
against Radmila Sekerinska (SDSM); Zoran Zasev against Zoran
Zaev, etc). This trick was relatively successful in the 2006
elections when SDSM lost 3,500 votes in District 4 in
Southeastern Macedonia, in addition to 1,500 invalid ballots,
all because of confusion with the clone SDPM. Widely
believed to be supported by VMRO, SDPM has been attacked by
the media, who located some of the SDSM "doubles," most of
them unemployed or elderly, and who are at best dimly aware
of their political role.

VMRO, DPA AND DUI UP IN OPINION POLL
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10. (SBU) A May 5 opinion poll by the local Democracy
Institute showed approval for VMRO was at 29.2%, higher than
a few weeks ago, while SDSM's 9.8% rating was slightly lower.
According to the same survey, both DUI and DPA increased
their support, from 9.9% to 10.8% for DUI, and from 5.1% to
5.7% for DPA. Not surprisingly, Gruevski is still the most
trusted politician, with 29.5% approval, followed by DUI's
Ahmeti at 11.2% and President Crvenkovski at 7.5%. The
Democracy Institute survey showed SDSM's Sekerinska, with her
3.2% approval rating, trailing even behind DPA's Thaci at 4.5%

ODIHR OBSERVERS DEPLOYED; NDI CODE OF CONDUCT SIGNED
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11. (SBU) ODIHR HOM Ambassador Barry briefed IC principals
May 6 that ODIHR Long-Term Observers (LTOs) had been deployed
earlier that day. LTOs, and observers of the Macedonian NGO
MOST will liaise in the field, while LTOs are preparing

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ODIHR's interim report on the political situation before the
elections. Unlike in the past, ODIHR will have only limited
local IC support, with approximately two teams per bilateral
mission. In addition, two parliamentary delegations will
take part in the monitoring: one from the Council of Europe,
and one from OSCE's Parliamentary Assembly.


12. (SBU) In a highly-publicized event in Parliament May 8,
more than 30 party leaders signed the NDI Code of Conduct for
free and fair elections. Organized under the motto, "We Can
and We Must. Fair Elections 2008," NDI Country Director
Henshaw described the campaign as "a clear signal to party
activists and supporters that Macedonia must have fair
elections."

COMMENT
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13. (SBU) On May 7, MOST accused "the four big parties"
(VMRO, SDSM, DPA and DUI) of having violated the election
regulations by starting their campaigns before the official
May 11 start. The parties' response was to redouble their
efforts in preparation for the rapid deployment of their
campaigns as soon as the official signal is given this
weekend. Violent incidents are still isolated and with no
casualties. Disconcerting reports of nightly shooting in the
predominantly eAlbanian Skopje municipality of Cair are seen
as related to the elections.
NAVRATIL