MACEDONIA UNITED, MODERATE FOLLOWING GREEK VETO IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000253

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA UNITED, MODERATE FOLLOWING GREEK VETO IN
BUCHAREST


SUMMARY


1. (SBU) Macedonia's leaders, media and intellectuals
responded to Greece's decision April 3 to block Macedonia's
NATO accession with deep disappointment, but couched in
moderate and sober statements. Emotional appeals for
national unity and perseverance in implementing reforms have
been the main GOM public messages post-Bucharest. High-level
USG support before and at Bucharest has helped to moderate
the negative reaction of the public here, producing in its
wake a surge in pro-U.S. sentiment across the board. End
summary.

DISAPPOINTED IN GREECE...CALLING FOR UNITY AND REFORMS
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2. (SBU) Macedonia's bid for NATO membership at the Bucharest
Summit became the Number One news item on April 3 when the
final decision regarding the A-3 countries was taken.
Electronic media and wire services provided minute-by-minute
coverage of the summit, where all 26 Allies acknowledged
Macedonia's readiness to join, but Greece blocked Macedonia's
invitation due to the bilateral name dispute. Well-known
Macedonian pundits analyzed Macedonia's situation
post-Bucharest, disappointed in Greece's "19th century
rhetoric," yet appealing to citizens "to avoid a
self-isolationist scenario." Although they considered the
veto's "negative effect on the citizens," analysts urged from
the pages of the April 4 print media against "a payback
policy against the Greeks."


3. (SBU) Following the official veto announcement at
Bucharest, Macedonia's leaders decided to return immediately
to Skopje "to be with the Macedonian people in this difficult
moment." Visibly emotional, both President Crvenkovski and
Prime Minister Gruevski expressed their frustration with
Greece's veto, which they considered a clear breach of the
1995 Interim Agreement (Note: The Interim Agreement between
Macedonia and Greece committed the two countries to the UN
process for resolving the name issue, while giving assurances
to Macedonia that Greece would not block its accession to
international organizations under the provisional name
"former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia." End note.)
Crvenkovski added, however, that "our disappointment should
not paralyze us." Condemning Greece's "short-sighted
policy," political leaders of all stripes here said what
Macedonia needed most now was a state strategy supported by a
unified political and ethnic consensus.

ETHNIC ALBANIAN REACTIONS
--------------


4. (SBU) Unhappy with the Bucharest results, Post's eAlbanian
contacts echoed the government's appeals for unity and
pledged to avoid "provocations and further inter-ethnic
polarization." Musa Xhaferi, VP of the biggest eAlbanian
party DUI, gave a sober analysis of the situation. According
to him, Macedonian institutions now faced a choice: isolation
as "FYROM" abroad and "Republic of Macedonia" internally, or
acknowledgement of the fact that the name issue is a real
obstacle that eventually must be overcome. Xhaferi added
that Macedonia should not walk away from its determination to
continue reforms for the good of the people. DUI VP Teuta
Arifi told us April 4 that Albania's successful NATO bid, and
the release of Kosovo Albanian ICTY indictee Ramush
Haradinaj, counter-balaced the disappointment of the
eAlbanian community in Macedonia.

THE U.S. IS OUR BEST ALLY
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5. (SBU) Macedonia's leaders across the political spectrum
thanked all NATO allies, especially the U.S., for
acknowledging Macedonia's successful reforms. PM Gruevski
added that even Greece did not disagree with that positive
assessment and pledged to "continue with our reforms and
programs." The momentary disappointment at Bucharest gave
way to the media touting of President Bush's alleged support
for "a closer U.S.-Macedonia relationship." The country's
leaders assessed that the explicit USG support for Macedonia
was the main reason why the public had reacted calmly to the

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bad news from Bucharest. The follow-up Zagreb meeting
between POTUS and Macedonia's top leadership only reconfirmed
for the Macedonians that, according to the widest circulation
daily "Dnevnik," "with the U.S. on its side, Macedonia has
its most powerful ally ever in history."

STOCK MARKET DIPS... BUT BUSINESSES AREN'T WORRIED
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6. (SBU) Media reported that, "due to the fiasco in
Bucharest," the Macedonian stock exchange index marked a
record drop of 8.4% on April 3. Although that caused
short-term panic among stock market investors, most economic
analysts predicted that "business will continue as usual,"
and the index went back up the next day. The local British
Business Group issued a statement on April 3 that British
businesses "will not be deterred by the lack of a NATO
invitation, because Macedonia fulfilled all the objective
criteria."

COMMENT


7. (SBU) Across the political and social strata, Macedonian
reactions post-Bucharest have been moderate and responsible.
The push by the USG to show clear support for Macedonia's
candidacy was a major factor in the country's equanimous
acceptance of a very disappointing NATO summit outcome. USG
support has encouraged the government to pledge continuing
much-needed reforms, while also creating a surge of pro-U.S.
sentiment.
MILOVANOVIC