MACEDONIA: ETHNIC ALBANIAN LEADERS ON NATO AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000213

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: ETHNIC ALBANIAN LEADERS ON NATO AND
INTERNAL POLITICAL STABILITY

REF: SKOPJE 194

Classified By: POLOFF NEISULER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).

SUMMARY


1. (C) In March 19 meetings with ethnic Albanian leaders
Thaci, from junior governing coalition partner DPA, and
Ahmeti, from DUI, the Ambassador stressed the importance of
maintaining political stability and resolving the name
dispute with Greece to secure a NATO membership invitation
this April. Both Thaci and Ahmeti assessed that, recently,
PM Gruevski had become a little less rigid in his position on
a compromise solution for the name. While Thaci claimed
(surprisingly) that was due to his own threat to leave the
governing coalition, Ahmeti attributed it to the overall
positive and supportive messages coming from the media and
other government and opposition politicians. Thaci said that
on March 23 he would definitely leave the governing coalition
if Gruevski failed to address his demands (reftel). Both
Thaci and Ahmeti underlined the vital importance of NATO
accession for them and their voters. End summary.

KEEP THE SITUATION CALM AND RESOLVE THE NAME DISPUTE
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2. (C) The Ambassador met separately with Menduh Thaci,
president of ethnic Albanian DPA (junior governing coalition
partner),and with Ali Ahmeti, president of the largest
ethnic Albanian party DUI, on March 19 to discuss Macedonia's
internal political situation (reftel) and to brief the two
leaders on the mood in Washington regarding Macedonia's NATO
readiness. The Ambassador noted that the name dispute with
Greece remains the only outstanding obstacle to Macedonia's
NATO membership bid. She stressed that there should be no
political shenanigans in Macedonia at this juncture.

THACI: THE PM IS LIKE A RESTLESS CHILD...
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3. (C) The Ambassador told Thaci that the political decision
about DPA's participation in the government was only his to
make. She stressed, however, that a recent statement by DPA
Deputy Prime Minister Imer Aliu that appealed to eAlbanians
to boycott Macedonia's institutions was "unhelpful and
divisive." Admitting that he was the author of Aliu's
statement, Thaci said that the statement could have been even
harsher. Clearly frustrated, he likened PM Gruevski to a
"restless child, playing with fire." He added that the Prime
Minister's behavior had put Thaci in a difficult position,
and that he could not support Gruevski as he slid "into the
abyss." In Thaci's opinion, Aliu's statement had been a
"wake-up call" for Gruevski, who earlier had underestimated
the seriousness of DPA's threats. "I can't lose all my
credibility with eAlbanian voters, while Gruevski is trying
to paint himself as the new Alexander the Great," added Thaci.

I NEED A DEAL - A NATO INVITATION!
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4. (C) Thaci said that his actions were "not a game" and that
he needed evidence from the Prime Minister that he would keep
working on the six demands DPA had submitted to him last
week. Recognizing that these demands could not be concluded
quickly, he stressed he was mainly interested in a political
process, and in Gruevski's willingness to recognize eAlbanian
grievances. Thaci said that Gruevski needs his support in
conducting operations in eAlbanian areas. He asserted that
Gruevski could "get anything from me, but I need a deal - a
NATO invitation!" Dismissing Gruevski's claims that a
compromise with the Greeks would destroy Macedonian identity,
Thaci said that only a compromise could get Macedonia into
NATO, and only NATO membership could ensure a secure future
for the country. That is why, Thaci said, he had given
Gruevski until March 23 to accept a deal with DPA. Without
such a deal, Gruevski and his government would fall, Thaci
concluded.


5. (C) The Ambassador warned against any actions that could
jeopardize or appear to jeopardize Macedonia's political
stability. Thaci vehemently protested against any suggestion

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that his actions were irresponsible. He assessed his latest
actions as "very helpful" to Macedonia's NATO aspirations.
If 10 days ago the Prime Minister was "up in the clouds and
rigid, my pressure has made him more flexible and
constructive," Thaci added. The Ambassador concluded that
behind-the-scenes pressure could be helpful, as long as DPA's
public behavior was responsible.

AHMETI: POSITIVE MOMENTUM ON NAME COMPROMISE...
-------------- --


6. (C) Echoing Thaci's assessment that there was discernable
positive momentum on the eMacedonian side, DUI's Ahmeti told
the Ambassador that Gruevski's rigid pronouncements about the
name were different from eMacedonian MPs' private statements
reflecting more flexibility on the same issue. Ahmeti said
that eMacedonian media seemed to be preparing the public for
a compromise. He expressed his readiness "to add to the
positive messages coming from the eMacedonian side," and to
cooperate across party lines "to relax the situation" and
achieve DUI's "vital objective - NATO membership."

...EARLY ELECTIONS IMMEDIATELY AFTER NATO INVITATION
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7. (C) Ahmeti said that early elections (but not announced
before the NATO Summit) were the only cure for the current
"unsustainable" coalition. He acknowledged EU concerns that
early elections would slow down necessary reforms, but
countered that the current government was not doing enough to
"defend the rights of citizens of this country." Ahmeti was
certain that, if VMRO and DUI both supported early elections,
the appointment of a new government would happen by the end
of July. Having reviewed the pros and cons of early
elections, the Ambassador warned against the possibility of
elections being tarnished by intra-ethnic violence or
ballot-stuffing, which would undermine Macedonia's 2006
electoral success. Ahmeti countered that Gruevski should
take the responsibility to keep his coalition partner DPA in
line, and added he did not want "an undeserved victory"
(through cheating). If there were no early elections, Ahmeti
predicted that all opposition parties would cease their
constructive engagement in the government's legislative
agenda.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) Thaci's comments on his role, motivations and goals
bore little resemblance to reality. Reality being his
unfocused desire to raise his poll ratings (likely an
unsuccessful effort). Ahmeti's views were far more logical.
In their meetings with the Ambassador, both Thaci and Ahmeti
tried to present themselves as reasonable politicians working
for what is best for Macedonia. While a somewhat defensive
Thaci appealed to the Ambassador "to understand that my
grievances are fair," Ahmeti highlighted his party's recent
constructive attitude and reliability. Clearly, the specter
of early elections determines every step that DPA and DUI
make in order to ensure their electoral success. The two
eAlbanian leaders' positive readings of Gruevski's ability to
compromise on the name may be a reflection of a real positive
movement in the government. However, it may also be the
wishful thinking of leaders whose voters see NATO accession,
and not the preservation of Macedonia's name, as their most
"vital interest."
MILOVANOVIC