MACEDONIA: ETHNIC ALBANIAN LEADERS ON NATO AND THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000194

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE, USNATO FOR AMB NULAND

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK GR
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: ETHNIC ALBANIAN LEADERS ON NATO AND THE
NAME ISSUE

REF: SKOPJE 186

Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In March 7 meetings with ethnic Albanian leaders
Thaci, from junior governing coalition partner DPA, and
Ahmeti, from DUI, the Charge stressed the importance of
resolving the name dispute with Greece as the key to ensuring
Macedonia receives a NATO membership invitation this April.
Both Thaci and Ahmeti complained that PM Gruevski is
uninterested in resolving the name issue. Thaci said DPA
could be flexible in accepting almost any name compromise, as
long as that led to NATO membership; Ahmeti was less flexible
on the name formulation, ruling out variants that suggested
Macedonia is a state dominated by the ethnic Macedonian
population. Both leaders were convinced that Gruevski has
already decided to head into early elections. Thaci said the
DPA leadership was on the verge of deciding to leave the
government, given Gruevski's refusal to meet DPA demands or
to budge on the name issue. Ahmeti suggested Thaci's
departure could lead to a caretaker government, excluding
Gruevski's VMRO party, that would press urgently to close a
name deal to gain a NATO invitation and plan for early
elections in June or July. Both Thaci and Ahmeti predicted
significant inter-ethnic conflict if Macedonia fails to
receive a NATO invitation. We believe a caretaker
government, should the government fall, would be hard-pressed
to both reach agreement on the name dispute before the
Bucharest Summit and assuage Alliance concerns that DPA's
exit could signal incipient political instability in
Macedonia. End summary.

RESOLVE THE NAME DISPUTE, SUCCEED IN NATO BID
--------------


2. (C) Charge met separately with Menduh Thaci, president of
ethnic Albanian DPA (junior governing coalition partner),and
with Ali Ahmeti, president of the largest ethnic Albanian
party DUI, on March 12 to brief them on the March 7 visit of
Acting U/S Fried (reftel). The Charge noted that the name
dispute with Greece remains the only outstanding obstacle to
Macedonia's NATO membership bid. He stressed that the USG
wants to be helpful in resolving the dispute through a
negotiated settlement on a name for Macedonia to use
internationally.

A PM WITHOUT A VISION FOR COMPROMISE...
--------------


3. (C) Thaci said PM Gruevski was acting irresponsibly in
refusing to show more flexibility in resolving the name
dispute. Gruevski's proposal to hold a referendum on the
name was, in Thaci's view, "catastrophic" and unhelpful,
while to Ahmeti it was an "abrogation of a politician's
responsibility" to take difficult decisions. Expressing
their fear that they might be accused of "selling out
Macedonia" if they speak out publicly in support of a name
compromise, both Thaci and Ahmeti cast doubt on the Prime
Minister's ability to manage the situation leading up to the
Bucharest Summit. Ahmeti said that Gruevski clearly was
"taking the country in the wrong direction." Both ethnic
Albanian leaders characterized President Crvenkovski as more
serious about finding a compromise.

THACI: ALMOST ANY NAME IS OK, AS LONG AS WE GET NATO
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Thaci said ethnic Albanians wanted to support the
government on the name issue, but the GOM had waited too long
to consult with eAlbanian leaders on the matter. He said his
party did "not care much about the name" that might be
identified in any settlement, as long as the end result was
NATO membership for Macedonia. He cautioned that he could
not state that position publicly, however, for fear of being
seen by eMacedonian leaders as a "back stabber."

AHMETI: SOME NAMES UNACCEPTABLE
--------------


SKOPJE 00000194 002 OF 003



5. (C) Equally uneasy with open statements about support for
a name compromise, Ahmeti said that DUI had certain red lines
that limited the name variants they could accept. The names
he ruled out were "Slavo-Macedonia," the "Macedonian
State/Republic" and the "National Republic of Macedonia." In
Ahmeti's view, these names suggest that Macedonia is a
one-nation state, thus ignoring the existence of a large
Albanian minority. (Note: "National" might be acceptable to
Ahmeti with more time to explain the word's connotation in
English. End note.)

GRUEVSKI HEADS INTO EARLY ELECTIONS...
--------------


6. (C) Unfortunately, Thaci continued, PM Gruevski was set on
calling early elections, from which he presumably thought he
could emerge with a stronger majority. As a result, he was
convinced that Gruevski was not interested in being
constructive in further name negotiations. The Prime
Minister was going down with his ship, Thaci said, but could
not expect to "drag everyone down with him." If Macedonia
failed to receive a NATO invitation and DPA was still a part
of the coalition, Thaci added, he personally would be held
responsible for that failure by eAlbanians. Ahmeti echoed
Thaci's concerns; if Macedonia failed to receive a NATO
invitation, "many hidden issues" would come to the fore, some
of which could lead to violent incidents.

...THACI ABANDONS SHIP
--------------


7. (C) The Charge asked about media reports that Thaci was
prepared to leave the governing coalition if Gruevski failed
to meet six key DPA demands, including a language law and
faster recognition of Kosovo independence. He pointed out
that such a move, which would create the impression of
political instability in Macedonia, would be unhelpful to
Macedonia's NATO prospects in the run-up to the Bucharest
Summit.


8. (C) Thaci said he was aware of the difficulty leaving the
government would pose for the country's NATO bid. He said he
could not, however, remain allied with a Prime Minister who
was being unconstructive on the name issue and was
jeopardizing Macedonia's NATO prospects in the process. He
could not abandon his responsibilities to his eAlbanian
electorate, who overwhelmingly favor NATO membership. As a
consequence, DPA leaders would decide the same evening (March
12) to leave the government. He said he recently had told
Gruevski that he understood the PM's concerns about the name
and Macedonian identity, but pointed out to the PM that
Gruevski had been denying eAlbanians in Macedonia their own
identity by refusing to compromise on a language law.



9. (C) With DPA out of government, Thaci said, Gruevski would
lose his parliamentary majority and either create a new
majority, or resign and call early elections. Thaci said he
had spoken the day before with eAlbanian opposition DUI
leader Ali Ahmeti, who had assured him that DUI would not
enter into talks with Gruevski about a post-election
coalition. Ahmeti confirmed that assertion, telling Charge
that DUI "will not be Gruevski's spare tire." He said he had
encouraged Thaci to leave the government and let Gruevski's
government fall. Ahmeti concluded that "with Gruevski at the
helm, Macedonia cannot move forward."

A CARETAKER GOVERNMENT TO SAVE MACEDONIA...
--------------


10. (C) Ahmeti confidently predicted that, if Thaci left
Gruevski's coalition, the government would topple
immediately. Once that happened, Ahmeti thought a broad
coalition caretaker government could take over and pursue a
simple, three-point platform: NATO accession with a
compromise on the name, May 29 implementation, and planning
for early elections in June or July. Ahmeti pledged to
consult with the U.S. on every aspect of such a wide
coalition. He concluded that "if the Prime Minister does not
want to take the responsibility, then the whole political
community has to do that jointly."


SKOPJE 00000194 003 OF 003


COMMENT
--------------


11. (C) Thaci has threatened several times in the past to
exit the governing coalition, without effect. This time, we
believe he is serious about following through. He clearly
does not want to face an angry eAlbanian electorate in the
event Macedonia fails to reach a name compromise and Greece
exercises its veto, so jumping ship makes political sense to
him at this time. Although that could result in a successful
vote of no confidence, toppling Gruevski's government, there
may not be enough time before the Bucharest Summit to form a
broad coalition caretaker government and negotiate a
compromise on the name dispute with Greece, while convincing
Alliance members that the DPA exit was not a sign of
incipient political instability in the country. A tall order
to fill against a swiftly running clock.
NAVRATIL