MACEDONIA: CONSTRUCTIVELY LAYING THE GROUNDWORK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000143

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK GR
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: CONSTRUCTIVELY LAYING THE GROUNDWORK
FOR COMPROMISE ON THE NAME

REF: SKOPJE 140 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) The government is laying the groundwork for public
acceptance of a compromise on the most recent Nimetz name
proposal (reftel). In an encouraging break with the past, it
has moved a giant step away from its dual-name position
toward acceptance of a name for use in international
organizations. PM Gruevski continues to insist final
agreement would be subject to approval by referendum, while
other political parties indicate they would oppose that step.
The government will not accept use of the "international
name" for Macedonian passports or when signing multilateral
treaties, and likewise will not agree to the UN "suggesting"
that other countries use that name for bilateral relations.
Overall, the Macedonian position has shifted from possible
rejection of the Nimetz package to willingness actively to
find a solution through engagement in the process. Both the
President and PM Gruevski will work with other parties today
and tomorrow to build political consensus for the
government's compromise approach. End summary.

"HUGE STEP FORWARD": MOVING AWAY FROM DUAL NAME POSITION
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2. (U) Following the leak of the most recent Nimetz proposal
(reftel) to the Greek press on 2/20, the Macedonian state
leadership has carefully leaked details on its side to use
local press to lay the groundwork for a compromise on the
name issue. The daily Vecer, which is closely aligned with
PM Gruevski's government and would normally be expected in
screaming headlines to denounce the Nimetz package, in its
2/21 cover story calmly couched the choice for Skopje as
being between one of two name modifiers (Independent,
Democratic) and the despised FYROM for use in international
organizations.


3. (U) Vecer, as well as the tabloid Vest, suggested for the
first time publicly that Macedonia could go beyond its
dual-name approach to resolve the name issue, which
Macedonia's Name Negotiator Amb. Dimitrov accurately
characterized to us as a "huge step forward" in the
government's position. Vecer pointed out that either of the
two name modifiers -- Independent or Democratic -- could be
used without negatively influencing the country's national
sovereignty and identity, a position echoed by prominent
media commentators, while noting that either modifier could
be used without requiring a change in the country's
Constitution.

REFERENDUM QUID PRO NATO QUO
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4. (U) Vecer also noted that Macedonia's state leadership
agrees that any change in the name for international usage
would need to be approved by public referendum, provided
Greece accepted one of the two name modifiers as the "final"
solution to the name dispute. Other dailies linked a
positive referendum outcome to a Greek commitment to support
Macedonia's NATO bid. Vecer's separate piece on a possible
referendum quoted PM Gruevski as saying that "We will clarify
what is positive and what is negative (about the proposal)",
echoing President Crvenkovski's suggestion for a way forward
in his meeting with the Ambassador two days earlier (reftel).


REDLINES: PASSPORTS, BILATERAL RECOGNITION
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5. (U) Most local media highlighted as non-starters the
Nimetz proposal's requirement that a new international name
would be used for Macedonian passports, and its provision
that the UN would suggest other countries consider using that
name for bilateral purposes.

NO ANTI-GREEK RHETORIC, VIOLENCE CONDEMNED BY ALL
-------------- --------------


SKOPJE 00000143 002 OF 002



6. (U) The bulk of media reporting has been surprisingly free
of anti-Greek rhetoric or inflammatory comments, with most
stories providing straightforward coverage of the Nimetz
proposal. Vecer alleged that a demonstration against the
Greek position on the name staged the evening of 2/19 in
front of the Greek Liaison Mission here had been orchestrated
by the SDSM opposition party, and underlined that the MOI was
pursuing charges against the organizers of the protest, which
had resulted in some light property damage to the Greek
facilities. Local media also reported the statements of
major parties here all condemning the violence against the
Greek mission.

FROM REJECTION TO ENGAGEMENT
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7. (C) In a meeting with the Ambassador the evening of 2/20,
Name Negotiator Nikola Dimitrov said the GOM had moved from
seriously contemplating rejecting the Nimetz proposal
outright, to a position of engagement in the process. The
government wanted to carefully delineate the scope of usage
of the international name, limiting it to use in
international organizations only. He said the proposal would
be made "very public" in order to marginalize "the extreme
elements" in Macedonian society. The GOM's counterproposal
would contain very firm "redlines" that would reflect
Macedonia's "best and final offer." Contrary to the Vecer
press account, Dimitrov said both he and the President
opposed a referendum to decide on the name issue.


8. (C) Dimitrov said he would draft by 2/22 a general
political statement describing the Macedonian position to the
Nimetz proposal, which would be based on President
Crvenkovski's and PM Gruevski's consultations with other
Macedonian political leaders to build a consensus for that
position. By 2/25, he aimed to complete a more detailed
description of the Macedonian approach that would be shared
with Nimetz and the USG.

COMMENT: LEADERS PREPARING THE PUBLIC
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9. (C) By going public with the positive and negative
elements of the Nimetz proposal, the government is aiming to
build public support for ridding the country of the FYROM
acronym in exchange for either Independent or Democratic
(Republic of Macedonia),while signaling early on the
elements of the package beyond it which it deems it cannot go
and still successfully manage public opinion. By subjecting
the entire Nimetz package (which the government considers
deeply flawed) to public scrutiny, the government appears to
be trying to present a "worst case scenario," so that walking
back from that scenario toward a compromise on what it views
as the positive elements of the proposal eventually can be
portrayed to the media and citizens as a political victory
for Macedonia, despite the fact that it means giving up
Skopje's original dual-name position.
MILOVANOVIC