MACEDONIA: PLANS FOR IRAQ FOR 2008 AND BEYOND

S E C R E T SKOPJE 000013

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
NOFORN

STATE FOR EUR/SCE, NEA/I, INR/I

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2018
TAGS: PINR KDEM MARR NATO PREL MK IZ
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: PLANS FOR IRAQ FOR 2008 AND BEYOND
(C-RE8-00009)

REF: A. STATE 2310


B. SKOPJE 812

Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASON 1.4 (C).


1. (S/NF) The following responses are keyed to the questions
in ref A:


A. (S/NF) Macedonia's leadership is committed to staying the
course in Iraq in 2008 and beyond, as long as the U.S.
remains engaged in Iraq and indicates Macedonian support is
needed. Macedonia recently doubled its troop deployments, to
77 soldiers, to support U.S.-led operations in Iraq. The
parliament must authorize each six-month rotation of troops
to Iraq, and continues to do unanimously.


B. Macedonia plans to maintain its military presence in Iraq
through 2008 and as long as needed thereafter.


C. Macedonia currently has 41 special forces and 36
mechanized infantry troops serving in Iraq. Those troops
conduct joint patrols and other missions with U.S. forces,
and provide facility security for coalition headquarters in
Taji.


D. Macedonia, a foreign aid recipient and a poor country with
2006 per capita GDP of $3,042, currently has no plans to
provide economic assistance or other non-military
contributions to Iraq in 2008 or thereafter. According to
government figures, Iraqi debt outstanding to private
Macedonian firms for work done prior to the second Gulf war
is over $280 million.


E. The Ministry of Defense and other government officials
continue to appreciate USG funding of all non-salary expenses
for Macedonian troops serving in Iraq. Any U.S. incentive
program that would provide full or partial reimbursement for
salary costs for those Macedonian troops serving in Iraq
(currently amounting to approximately $3.2 million, or
roughly two percent of the MOD's annual budget) would help
reinforce the GOM's commitment to continued troop deployments
in Iraq.


F. In the absence of an authorizing UNSCR for continued
deployment in Iraq, the Macedonians have indicated they would
require a bilateral agreement with the Iraqi government to
provide the legal basis for future troop deployments. Some
GOM officials have indicated it would be useful for the Iraqi
government to development a standard bilateral agreement for
use with all smaller troop-contributing countries.


G. There are no plans for national or local elections in
Macedonia in 2008, though there is speculation that the Prime
Minister will call for early parliamentary elections later
this year. The next regularly scheduled elections will be
local and presidential elections to be held in 2009. None of
these elections should affect Macedonia's commitment to
continuing its support for U.S. operations in Iraq.


H. Given resource limitations, the GOM has not looked for
ways to become more involved in Iraq apart from its current
troop contributions.


I. Macedonia's leadership views the country's interests in
Iraq as: 1.) supporting democratic developments abroad and
demonstrating Macedonia's transition from a security consumer
to a security provider; 2.) demonstrating the capabilities of
its troops, which have served with distinction alongside U.S.
troops, and showing its commitment to the U.S. as a partner
in the War on Terror; and 3.) gaining valuable training for
its military forces as it prepares for a possible NATO
invitation at the NATO Summit in Bucharest in April 2008.


J. Macedonian leaders have shown strong interest in pursuing
contract opportunities in Iraq in the construction sector,
given the earlier history of Macedonian construction firms'
participation in infrastructure projects in Iraq prior to the
second Gulf War. Macedonian citizens currently are employed
by U.S.-based contractors in logistics support functions in

Iraq.


K. Both funding and personnel shortages will limit
Macedonia's ability to engage more robustly in Iraq.


L. Macedonia defense and foreign affairs officials view the
security situation in Iraq as critical but improving. They
believe the situation will continue to improve as long as
there is a firm commitment by the U.S. and its allies to
staying the course and concentrating forces in the
highest-risk areas of the country.


M. Even if the threat situation in Iraq were to improve
significantly, it is unlikely that the Macedonian government
would consider any major increase in its involvement there.
A permissive security environment, especially in Baghdad,
would, however, likely cause the Macedonian MFA to move ahead
with its previously shelved (in 2005) plan to open a
diplomatic mission there.


N. Regardless of the improvement in the security situation,
the Macedonians likely will remain engaged in Iraq as long as
the U.S. and the Iraqi government indicate they are needed.


O. As indicated in K. and H. above, the GOM does not
currently plan to provide economic/humanitarian aid to Iraq.


P. Post is not aware of any upcoming European meetings
involving Macedonian participation that would lead to impetus
for increased involvement in Iraq.


Q. The government has taken the lead in informing public
opinion on the reasons for Macedonia's participation in Iraq.
The Minister of Defense has been a strong advocate for the
government's current position on participation. There are
few public debates on the topic, little editorial comment on
Macedonia's participation, and the media tend not to cover
Iraq issues in more than cursory detail.


R. Not applicable to Macedonia.
MILOVANOVIC