Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08SINGAPORE647
2008-06-06 09:18:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy Singapore
Cable title:  

U.S. NEEDS "COUNTER-STRATEGY" FOR CHINA'S

Tags:  PREL MARR OVIP CH IZ RS SN 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RR RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHGH RUEHHM RUEHNH RUEHVC
DE RUEHGP #0647/01 1580918
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 060918Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY SINGAPORE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5391
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 0021
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 0357
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SINGAPORE 000647 

CODEL
NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE PASS SENATE FOR SENATOR LIEBERMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2018
TAGS: PREL MARR OVIP CH IZ RS SN
SUBJECT: U.S. NEEDS "COUNTER-STRATEGY" FOR CHINA'S
INFLUENCE IN THE REGION, MM LEE TELLS SENATOR LIEBERMAN

Classified By: Ambassador Patricia L. Herbold,
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SINGAPORE 000647

CODEL
NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE PASS SENATE FOR SENATOR LIEBERMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2018
TAGS: PREL MARR OVIP CH IZ RS SN
SUBJECT: U.S. NEEDS "COUNTER-STRATEGY" FOR CHINA'S
INFLUENCE IN THE REGION, MM LEE TELLS SENATOR LIEBERMAN

Classified By: Ambassador Patricia L. Herbold,
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew discussed
regional stability in the face of China's economic,
political, and military rise with Senator Joseph Lieberman,
joined by the Ambassador, May 30. Lee called on the United
States to develop a "counter-strategy" to respond to China's
growing influence in Southeast Asia. MM Lee suggested
China's military build-up is in part natural but is also
designed to show the United States that China is serious
about Taiwan. However, the Chinese do not want conflict and
are more focused on the economy. Taiwan will grow closer to
China but will want to maintain a separate military and
currency. To manage China, the United States should be
"respectful" and should also try to build bridges to the
younger, more affluent generation. Lee indicated Russia
retains ambitions to reestablish control over the
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). He reiterated his
view that a withdrawal from Iraq would "throw away all the
influence" the United States has. End Summary.

The Rise of China
--------------


2. (C) MM Lee told Senator Lieberman, who was in Singapore
to participate in the Shangri-La Dialogue, and the Ambassador
that there has been a major shift in economic power from the
Atlantic to the Pacific region. This raises the question of
how the Pacific can remain stable as China grows
economically, politically, and militarily. The Bush
Administration has done "not so badly" in managing this
challenge, as evidenced by strengthening U.S. relations with
Japan, India, and ASEAN.


3. (C) Without America, there would be no balance in Asia in
the face of China's eventually "overwhelming" influence, MM
Lee said. Commenting on U.S. policy toward Southeast Asia,
MM Lee said the Administration was distracted elsewhere and
had "left (management of) ASEAN to the bureaucracy, and
they've done OK. But there isn't an overall
"counter-strategy" to respond to China's rising influence in
the region. In contrast, China "got organized in a big way,"
MM Lee said. In each summit meeting, the Chinese offer aid
packages, such as a concert hall for Laos or a new road for
Indonesia. MM Lee agreed with the Senator's comment that
9/11 had shifted U.S. focus away from Asia in recent years,
saying the events of 9/11 "released China from what would
have been an intense competitive grip."

Taiwan
--------------


4. (C) MM Lee suggested China's military buildup delivers a
strong message to the United States that China is serious
about Taiwan. However, the Chinese do not want to clash with
anyone--at least not for the next 15 to 20 years. The
Chinese are confident that in 30 years their military will
essentially match in sophistication the U.S. military; in the
long term they do not see themselves as "disadvantaged in
this fight." MM Lee noted that he has worked to persuade the
Chinese to adopt a more conciliatory view, i.e., "let's not
talk about war - that's silly stuff."


5. (C) MM Lee predicted Taiwan would draw close to China,
but would never accept a Hong Kong-style arrangement because
it will want to retain its own military and currency. He
said that intense bargaining over the long-term relationship
between China and Taiwan would begin in 20 to 30 years,
dependin