MANAGE CHINA'S RISE CAREFULLY, FM YEO TELLS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SINGAPORE 000618

CODEL
NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE PASS SENATE FOR SENATOR LIEBERMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2018
TAGS: PREL MARR OVIP CH JA SN KN
SUBJECT: MANAGE CHINA'S RISE CAREFULLY, FM YEO TELLS
SENATOR LIEBERMAN

REF: SINGAPORE 586

Classified By: Ambassador Patricia L. Herbold, reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Singapore Foreign Minister George Yeo told
Senator Joseph Lieberman May 30 that strong U.S. engagement
in the Asia-Pacific was essential to managing China's
peaceful rise. Absent a strong U.S. presence, China's near
neighbors might fear its expansionism. In Southeast Asia,
countries would need to accommodate China as it asserted its
prerogatives, limiting their freedom. Describing his visit
this month to North Korea, FM Yeo said the DPRK's deep
mistrust of China might explain its interest in relations
with "non-threatening" countries like Singapore. Noting
parallels in the Middle East, the Senator observed that
surface political ties sometimes obscured deep historical
enmities. He argued that the next U.S. Administration should
strengthen alliances and pay close attention to the
Asia-Pacific region. In a brief separate meeting, Defence
Minister Teo highlighted our close bilateral military ties as
a "concrete expression" of Singapore's belief that strong
U.S. presence is essential for regional peace and stability.
END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Senator Lieberman said he looked forward to
participating in the Shangri-La Dialogue May 30 - June 1 in
Singapore. The Dialogue had developed into a premier forum
for discussing Asia-Pacific security issues. He expressed
admiration for Singapore's achievements and appreciation for
our close bilateral security partnership. The Senator
observed that U.S. ties in the Asia-Pacific were in good
shape overall, but that the policy discussion in the United
States since 9/11 had focused on Iraq and Afghanistan.
Whoever was elected as the next U.S. president should give
the region the attention it deserves.

Managing China's Rise - Strong U.S. Engagement Essential
-------------- --------------


3. (C) FM Yeo said the Shangri-La Dialogue provided "neutral
ground" where China and the Western powers, among others,
could discuss security issues. He warmly praised an opinion
piece the Senator co-authored with Senator John McCain that
appeared May 27 in the Asia Wall Street Journal calling for
strengthened U.S. engagement in Asia. FM Yeo said the
central question for Asia in the next century would be
China's rise and how the United States would deal with it.
If China's insecurities were managed properly, it would pull
itself out of poverty and become connected with the rest of
the world. If not, the consequences would be "incalculable."
Likening China to an adolescent, FM Yeo described world
reactions to developments in Tibet and the Olympics as
"formative experiences" that would influence its attitude
toward the outside world. China's would be much harder to
influence as "an adult," he said.


4. (C) FM Yeo stressed that strong U.S. engagement was
essential to maintain balance in the region. China's
thinking that the United States was weakening could lead to
instability. China's history of being invaded when it was
weak had given it a preoccupation with wanting to keep its
borders calm. China's near neighbors worry that without a
strong U.S. presence China could become expansionist, FM Yeo
said. In Southeast Asia, "we don't think so," but a growing
China would "insist on its prerogatives" and countries in the
region would feel the need to accommodate. If the United
States and China developed as two "equal poles," however,
other countries would feel more secure and have "more
freedom."


5. (C) The Senator mentioned that he had been impressed with
opinion pieces by Singapore founding father Lee Kuan Yew
warning that defeat in Iraq would have consequences in
Southeast Asia. If the United States retreated now, the
Senator said, it would not only mean victory for Iran and Al
Qaeda; it would also undermine U.S. credibility throughout
the Arab world and beyond. The Senator said that during his
visit to Japan, he had sensed "real worries" that the United

SINGAPORE 00000618 002 OF 002


States was drawing too close to China. Based on history,
some of Japan's fears of China seemed "fantastic," he said,
but the next U.S. Administration nevertheless needed to
bolster our alliances. That said, conflict with China is
"not inevitable."

North Korea - A Strange Place
--------------


6. (C) FM Yeo told the Senator of his visit earlier this
month to North Korea, which he described as a "strange place"
(reftel). Traveling hundreds of miles by car and train, FM
Yeo said he had the impression there was not enough food,
though he saw no signs of famine. He saw few machines or
farm animals and the hillsides were denuded, apparently
having been stripped of trees for firewood. Yet the country
was remarkably clean and orderly, FM Yeo said, and the people
were hardworking and warm "once you got to know them."


7. (C) FM Yeo recalled that he had wondered why his North
Korean counterpart had repeatedly asked about training and
medical care in Singapore, given that similar services were
readily available in China. Then it occurred to him that the
North Koreans saw Singapore as "non-threatening." A Korean
businessman had explained to him that the North Koreans hate
the Chinese, apparently because they fear China will control
them, despite the fact that some two hundred thousand Chinese
had died fighting for the North in the Korean War. The
Senator observed that it is easy to misunderstand such
relationships if you only look at political connections.
Some people assume that Iraq's current government could
easily fall under Iranian influence due to their ties as
fellow Shia Muslims, but there are deep historical and even
personal strains between them. Similarly, many Palestinians
feel that Arab neighbors have not treated them well or with
respect.

Defence Minister Teo
--------------


8. (C) In a brief separate meeting with Defence Minister Teo
Chee Hean, Senator Lieberman reiterated his admiration for
Singapore's development and appreciation for our close
bilateral strategic partnership, which he described as
important to the United States. Def Min Teo recalled the
development of the relationship starting in the 1970's and
culminating with the 2005 bilateral Strategic Framework
Agreement (SFA),which provided enhanced U.S. military access
in Singapore and strengthened strategic cooperation. The SFA
was a "concrete expression" of Singapore's belief that a
strong U.S. regional presence is essential for peace and
stability in the region.


9. (C) Def Min Teo repeated FM Yeo's praise for the Senator's
joint May 27 opinion piece with Senator McCain calling for
strong U.S. engagement in Asia. The Senator responded that
the United States considers itself a Pacific power and said
he thought the importance of Asia was well understood at the
leadership level in the United States. Unfortunately, 9/11
had intervened to direct our attention to the Middle East.
Even so, he thought the United States had the capacity to
look after its interests in both regions. Def Min Teo said
that Singaporeans were following the U.S. election with great
interest since, he claimed, the outcome probably has as great
an effect on "the man in the street" in Singapore as in
middle America.


10. (U) Codel Lieberman cleared this message.

Visit Embassy Singapore's Classified website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/singapore/ind ex.cfm
HERBOLD