SINGAPORE MFA PERMSEC HO SAYS POSTPONING ASEAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SINGAPORE 001285

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEAN PINR SN
SUBJECT: SINGAPORE MFA PERMSEC HO SAYS POSTPONING ASEAN
SUMMIT UNTIL MARCH WOULD BE "A MISTAKE"

SINGAPORE 00001285 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: DCM Daniel Shields for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Delaying the ASEAN Summit until March due to
political turmoil in Thailand would be a setback for
Southeast Asia and would reinforce perceptions that ASEAN is
a disorganized grouping, Peter Ho, Permanent Secretary for
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs told United States Ambassador
for ASEAN Affairs Scot Marciel in a December 4 meeting in
Singapore. Ho doubted the Thais would be able to host the
Summit even in March, and suggested the Summit should be held
in January at the ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta or somewhere
in Vietnam, given Vietnam's status as ASEAN Vice Chair.
Commenting on the terrorist attacks in Mumbai, Ho said the
death of a Singapore citizen during the attacks serves as a
stark reminder to Singaporeans that the threat of terrorism
has not abated. Ho also briefly touched on the political
situation in Malaysia, China's shift in diplomacy towards
Southeast Asia, the human rights situation in Burma and the
prospects for China or India taking action on climate change.
End Summary.

ASEAN Summit: A Delay Would Undermine ASEAN
--------------


2. (C) Delaying the ASEAN Summit until March, as Thailand has
proposed, would be a mistake, Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Permanent Secretary Peter Ho told United States Ambassador
for ASEAN Affairs Scot Marciel in a December 4 meeting.
Thailand's domestic problems are undermining the progress of
ASEAN and reinforcing a perception that ASEAN is a
disorganized grouping, Ho lamented. The Thais will likely
still be embroiled in their domestic political problems and
may be unable, even in March, to successfully host the
Summit, Ho said. It is imperative that the Summit be held
sooner in order for ASEAN leaders to discuss the economic
crisis and also launch the recently ratified ASEAN Charter,
Ho said. Ho suggested that the Summit be held in January,
and that Vietnam (as ASEAN Vice Chair) host the Summit or
that it be held at the ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta. Ho told
Ambassador Marciel that officials in Malaysia, Japan and
China (the latter two as part of the ASEAN Plus Three
groupings) have all told Singapore they would be unable to
attend a Summit held in March. Malaysia and Japan will
likely hold elections in March, and China will hold its
annual National People's Congress. Ho said ASEAN Foreign
Ministers will meet December 15 in Jakarta to discuss
proposals for rescheduling the Summit. Ho said even if the
Summit is delayed until March, the two ASEAN Free Trade
Agreements (the ASEAN-India and ASEAN Australia/New Zealand
FTAs) need to be signed at the first opportunity so that they
can be implemented.

A Compelling Greek Tragedy is Unfolding in Thailand
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Commenting on Thailand's political crisis, Ho compared
the political morass to "a compelling Greek tragedy." Both
sides have dug in their heels and the situation is unlikely
to be resolved any time soon. The Thai King might be the
only person who can resolve the crisis, but he has chosen to
remain silent until now. Unfortunately, there is a chance
that the King will be ignored should he choose to speak, and
that, Ho said, would be a disaster for Thailand.


4. (C) Commenting on the Thailand-Cambodia border dispute, Ho
said the problem had its roots in Thailand's current
political crisis. The opposition had tried to use the border
dispute as a pretext to embarrass the government.

India: A Reminder that the Terrorist Threat has not Abated
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Ambassador Marciel expressed condolences over the
death of a Singaporean hostage in the Mumbai terrorist
attacks. Ho responded that the incident served as an
unfortunate reminder that the terrorist threat has not
abated. The incident would make it easier on the government
to remind Singaporeans of the need to take the terrorism
threat seriously.


SINGAPORE 00001285 002.2 OF 003



6. (C) Ho described the Indian response to the terrorist
attacks as very disorganized, saying that Singapore officials
in Mumbai observed "scenes of complete chaos." One problem is
that India has not yet taken the terrorism threat
sufficiently seriously, Ho said.


7. (C) Ho told Ambassador Marciel that Israeli officials
complained to Singapore about how India mishandled the
hostage crisis at the Jewish center. No attempt was made to
negotiate with the hostage-takers and the Indian assault on
the center was poorly planned and coordinated, Ho said.



8. (C) Ho thought there was little doubt that the terrorists
came from Pakistan. He speculated that the potential
political impact of the attacks could be a worsening of
relations between India and Pakistan and expressed concern
that the Pakistani Army might relax pressure on extremist
strongholds in western Pakistan as it moved forces to its
eastern frontier with India. Ho said there would likely be
negligible economic impact on India, noting that the one area
that might be affected, India's tourism industry, is not yet
developed and is only a small part of the economy.

Malaysia: Weak Leadership Needs to Play to the Gallery
-------------- --------------


9. (C) The political situation in Malaysia has stabilized now
that Abdullah's succession is clear and opposition leader
Anwar has been weakened, Ho said. While a return to some
form of Mahathirism is possible under Najib, Malaysia's main
problem is one of weak leadership, Ho asserted. Malaysia's
leaders are forced to play to the gallery and jump on the
bandwagon of Malay rights. Malaysia's minorities have seen
their political influence wane as their percentage of the
population shrinks relative to Malays. In an effort to hedge
against possible future turmoil, those ethnic Chinese who can
move their money out of Malaysia are doing so, Ho noted.

China: No More Smiling Diplomacy
--------------


10. (C) While in the past China went to great lengths to
assure ASEAN countries of the "peaceful rise of China," Ho
asserted that Chinese diplomatic efforts in the region have
now entered a new phase. China is now more focused on
securing its strategic interests, which include access to
resources and the protection of China's maritime trade
routes. This shift has led to an increase in Vietnam-China
tensions. While Vietnamese officials will not openly
criticize China, they often privately express their fear of
China's actions and intentions, Ho said. Vietnam's
unwillingness to openly criticize China suggest that
Vietnam's conduct of diplomacy is not yet fully mature, Ho
asserted.

U.S. - ASEAN Relations
--------------


11. (C) Ho noted that although there has been much progress,
the United States relationship with ASEAN has suffered from a
series of missed opportunities, most recently the inability
to schedule a meeting between the President and the "ASEAN 7"
(ASEAN minus Burma, Laos and Cambodia) during APEC.

Burma
--------------


12. (C) Ambassador Marciel stressed that the human rights
situation in Burma has taken a turn for the worse and that
the junta's use of long jail sentences for opponents of the
regime would in many cases amount to death sentences for the
accused. PermSec Ho acknowledged that the situation in Burma
is "a mess."

Climate Change
--------------


13. (C) China sees action on climate change as in its best
interests, but will only act if the United States acts, Ho

SINGAPORE 00001285 003.2 OF 003


said. India will likely prove more intransigent on climate
change, Ho stated.


14. (U) Ambassador Marciel cleared this cable.

Visit Embassy Singapore's Classified website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/singapore/ind ex.cfm
HERBOLD