REPORTS OF MAJOR DROUGHT IN CHINA'S NORTHEAST ARE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SHENYANG 000056

SIPDIS

DEPT PLEASE PASS TO DEPT OF AGRICULTURE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2018
TAGS: CH EAGR ECON ETRD PGOV
SUBJECT: REPORTS OF MAJOR DROUGHT IN CHINA'S NORTHEAST ARE
ALL WET

REF: SHENYANG 00252

Classified By: Consul General Stephen Wickman E.O. 12958: B and D


1. (C) Summary. Over the past six weeks, China's Xinhua
News Agency has published numerous reports of serious drought
in Northeast China, many of which were picked up by western
wire services. Econoff,s queries about the drought during a
series of trips around the region, however, met with
responses that ranged from muted denial to outright laughter.
Our personal observations throughout the region likewise
revealed no shortage of surface water, with rivers and
reservoirs nearly full. The reasons behind Xinhua's
reporting remain unclear, but the reports do not appear to be
related to any real shortage of rainfall or surface water in
this district. End Summary

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The Sky Is Not Falling
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2. (U) In early March, Xinhua began a steady drumbeat of
reports underscoring Northeast China's lack of rainfall
during 2008, initially describing it as "the worst drought in
five years" and, in subsequent reports, "the worst in fifty
years." Cursory observation however, did not reveal any
unusual weather pattern. Northeast China typically
experiences very little rainfall in the first quarter of each
calendar year. Xinhua's reports, which cite China's National
Meteorological Agency as a source and indicate rainfall well
below normal, conflict with U.S. meteorological observations
that put rainfall at or above normal for the entire region.


3. (C) In an attempt to locate possible pockets of drought,
Econoff traveled extensively throughout Northeast China,
speaking with agricultural officials to determine the
potential impact of the drought on Northeast China's grain
production. At every stop, spring planting was proceeding on
a normal schedule. Only in Jinzhou was any shortage of
surface water reported, although the cause of the problem was
a mystery. The Chief of the local Agriculture Bureau said
there had been plenty of rain and the river should have water
in it, but for some reason the flow had been stopped
upstream. He explained that, normally, local farmers would
be drawing water from the river, but now they will have to
rely on wells until water is released.

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Water, Water Everywhere
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4. (C) The story in Chaoyang ) abutting Inner Mongolia --
was much different. The most recent reports from Xinhua
indicated severe drought in the area, with many people
lacking water for cooking and drinking. However, officials
from Chaoyang's Water Bureau responded with laughter when
asked about the drought's impact and their plans for dealing
with it. They said that although some local residents are
being assisted in putting in new wells, water is readily
available and they are not suffering from any drought.


5. (C) On 23 April, China's central government released a
warning stating that fire risk was extremely high in
Northeast China due to persistent drought. Visits to
northern Jilin Province again painted another very different
picture. Both the Tumen and Songhua rivers were nearly bank
full, and the associated reservoirs were above 80 percent of
capacity. During a visit to Songhua Lake, a large reservoir
and hydroelectric facility in Jilin City, local officials
pointed out that turbines were in full operation and all six
flood gates were partially open. He said that, "with current
water levels, if we opened the gates fully, downtown Harbin
would flood in a matter of hours."


6. (C) Similarly, Agriculture officials in the ethnic Korean
enclave of Yanji expressed surprise at the notion of a
drought. While noting that Yanbian Prefecture is not a major
agricultural region, they described their water supplies as
more than adequate. Yanji agriculture officials added that
the Tumen River was at normal levels for mid-March and local
farmers had no complaints about water supplies.

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Divining the Source
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7. (C) It is unclear what the motivation might be for

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persistent reports of drought in Northeast China, but it does
not appear to be related to a lack of rainfall. One
possibility is that Beijing is trying to lower expectations
for this year's harvest in order to explain shortages in the
domestic market. As reported reftel, Beijing recently
directed shipments of corn from government stores in
Northeast China to China's South and substantially overstated
harvest amounts last year and had to release grain from
government stores to maintain price stability during the
Spring Festival. Officials in Jilin, moreover, told Econoff
they had no intention of adhering to Beijing's admonishment
to refrain from using food for ethanol production this year,
and during this latest trip Jilin Development Zone officials
said they expect to convert Jilin's entire 2008 corn crop to
ethanol at a newly opening facility in their zone. All of
this means that less grain is available to protect China's
domestic market from inflationary pressures.

WICKMAN