SHANGHAI ACADEMICS ON CHINA-PAKISTAN RELATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SHANGHAI 000519

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/CM, INL
NSC FOR LOI
BEIJING ALSO FOR DEA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/2/2033
TAGS: PREL ETRD PTER PINR SNAR CH PK IN
SUBJECT: SHANGHAI ACADEMICS ON CHINA-PAKISTAN RELATIONS

REF: A) SHANGHAI 515; B) SHANGHAI 476; C) SHANGHAI 467

CLASSIFIED BY: Christopher Beede, Pol/Econ Section Chief, U.S.
Consulate, Shanghai, U.S. Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Summary: Shanghai scholars believe Sino-Pakistan
relations are strong and stable, one scholar calling it an "all
weather partnership," with growing bilateral trade and good
political relations. China's growing ties with India (Ref A),
however, make Pakistan uncomfortable and force China to balance
its desire for better relations with India with its historical
ties to Pakistan. The scholars downplayed China's ability to
help Pakistan in its current economic difficulties, saying
Pakistan should learn to "become more self-reliant." The
scholars discussed anti-terror and anti-drug cooperation along
the Xinjiang-Pakistan border, saying the "porous border" has
allowed Xinjiang separatists to seek training in Pakistan and
opium from Afghanistan to flow through Pakistan to China.
Shanghai is home to approximately 200 Pakistanis, according to
the Pakistan Consulate, and the largest Pakistani community in
East China is in Yiwu, a large trading center in Zhejiang
Province (Refs B and C). This report is one in a series of
reports on Muslim ties to East China. (Note: All discussions
were conducted prior to the Mumbai terror attacks. End note.)
End summary.

"All Weather Partnership"
--------------

2. (C) Shanghai scholars believe Sino-Pakistan relations are
strong and stable. Wang Dehua, Professor at Shanghai Academy of
Social Sciences (SASS),characterized the relationship as an
"all weather partnership," based on decades of historical
friendship. He noted that bilateral trade, which has increased
significantly since 2006 when the two countries signed a Free
Trade Agreement, is set to reach USD 15 billion by 2011.
Growing economic ties reflect positive political and cultural
ties, said the scholars, and China is making an effort to
balance the trade relationship, which is currently skewed in
favor of Chinese exports. China has no border disputes or
geopolitical rivalry with Pakistan, and the two militaries have
a close relationship, said the scholars.

Triangular Relationship
--------------

3. (C) According to the scholars, however, China's desire to
improve political and economic ties with India, Pakistan's
rival, is complicating the Sino-Pakistan relationship (Ref A).
Zhang Jiegen, Professor at Fudan University, said Pakistani
scholars he met during his recent trip to Pakistan expressed
concerns about a burgeoning "friendship" between China and
India. His Pakistani interlocutors instead urged China to
"contain India" through closer partnership with Pakistan,
according to Zhang. Zhang Jiadong, Professor at Fudan
University, thinks China is in a dilemma: it wants to improve
relations with India while maintaining good relations with
Pakistan, but Pakistan has been "asking for more" (i.e., asking
China to choose sides). In describing China's "cultural
mindset," Zhang Jiadong explained that China does not want to
change its relations with any country too abruptly, so China
will continue to maintain good relations with Pakistan while
gradually developing stronger ties with India in a balanced
approach.

Not "All Weather" After All
--------------

4. (C) Despite talk of an "all weather partnership," the
scholars were quick to criticize Pakistan for what they perceive
as its over-reliance on China, particularly on the economic
front. Regarding Pakistan's current economic difficulties and
its request for foreign aid, Shao Yuqun, Professor at Shanghai
Institutes for International Studies (SIIS),said China in the
past would "blindly" give aid to its "friends," including
Pakistan, but now, aid must be considered on a "case by case
basis depending on the overall situation and the amount of aid."
She added that China's situation had changed recently with the
global economic downturn, and Beijing must now give greater
consideration to its domestic constituents.

SHANGHAI 00000519 002 OF 002




5. (C) Zhang Jiegen and Wang Weihua, Research Scholar at SIIS,
both said China may be able to help Pakistan economically to
some extent, but that it is not solely China's responsibility
nor within its power to help Pakistan emerge from its current
difficulties. Wang Dehua similarly stated that the West
"overestimates" China's ability to help others, including
Pakistan, and that China must first focus on its own domestic
situation. He added that China could give Pakistan more aid,
but that this would not help Pakistan in the long-run.
"Pakistan should learn to become more self-reliant," Wang said.


6. (C) At the same time, China realizes it can ill afford to
see Pakistan become a failed state, said the scholars. Wang
Dehua thinks China, the United States, and other major powers
should act together to help stabilize the Pakistan Government.
"Having the Taliban or other extremists take over in Pakistan is
not an option," he stated, saying Pakistan is crucial for the
stability of Central Asia and the Middle East. However, some of
the scholars wanted to pass the buck, arguing that the United
States has more influence than China in the region and should
take the lead in helping Pakistan.

Anti-Terror, Anti-Drug Cooperation
--------------

7. (C) Although the scholars noted improvements in
Sino-Pakistani anti-terror and anti-drug coordination along
their shared border, they were generally critical of the
effectiveness of Pakistan's forces. Shao Yuqun and Zhang
Jiadong believe Uighur separatists from Xinjiang Province are
crossing the "porous" Xinjiang-Pakistan border to get trained in
Pakistan and return to Xinjiang to carry out their separatist
activities. The Pakistani security forces are "not very
capable" at preventing the flow of these individuals, said Shao.
Zhang Jiadong sees the main problem within Pakistan itself. A
self-described expert on terrorism, Zhang thinks the Xinjiang
separatists get trained in Pakistan because of its proximity and
because the Pakistan Government cannot control the terrorist
training centers within its own borders.


8. (C) On drug trafficking, Shao Yuqun and Wang Weihua pointed
to a route operating since 2005, according to them, in which
opium from Afghanistan would pass through Pakistan, to Xinjiang,
and then travel within China to major cities, especially Hong
Kong, from where it could be shipped overseas. Shao thinks
anti-drug coordination within the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO) and between China and Pakistan has not been
particularly effective. Zhang Jiegen, however, thinks smugglers
who want to get drugs into China for use by Chinese customers
(mainly in Xinjiang which, Zhang said, has a "serious drug
problem") may be looking at alternate routes, possibly because
Chinese and Pakistani forces are cracking down on the overland
Pakistan-Xinjiang route. Zhang had heard of opium being shipped
in rugs from Afghanistan through India to the Chinese port city
of Qingdao, from where it would be smuggled to Xinjiang and
other cities in China.

Small Pakistani Communities in East China
--------------

9. (C) East China, including Shanghai, does not have large
Pakistani communities. Mahmood Akhtar Mahmood, Vice Consul at
the Pakistan Consulate in Shanghai, estimates there are only 200
Pakistanis living in Shanghai, including students,
businesspeople, and their accompanying family members. The
largest Pakistani community in East China is in Yiwu, a large
commodities trading center in Zhejiang Province (Refs B and C).
According to Wang Jianping, Professor at Shanghai Normal
University, Yiwu hosts approximately 5000 Pakistanis, including
short-term residents, who are mostly engaged in exporting
commodities to Pakistan.

Note
--------------

10. (C) The discussions reported here were held prior to the
Mumbai terror attacks of late November. The attacks received
heavy media coverage in both local print and broadcast media in
Shanghai.
CAMP