Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08SHANGHAI384
2008-09-11 07:40:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Shanghai
Cable title:  

EAST CHINA HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVISTS ON IMPACT OF OLYMPICS AND

Tags:  CH ECON ETRD KIRF PGOV PHUM 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SHANGHAI 000384 

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/11/2033
TAGS: CH ECON ETRD KIRF PGOV PHUM
SUBJECT: EAST CHINA HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVISTS ON IMPACT OF OLYMPICS AND
POTENTIAL POLITICAL FALLOUT FROM ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN

REF: A. (A) SHANGHAI 322

B. (B) SHANGHAI 320

CLASSIFIED BY: Christopher Beede, Political/Economic Section
Chief, U.S. Consulate General, Shanghai, Department of State.

REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SHANGHAI 000384

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STATE FOR EAP/CM AND DRL
NSC FOR WILDER, LOI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/11/2033
TAGS: CH ECON ETRD KIRF PGOV PHUM
SUBJECT: EAST CHINA HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVISTS ON IMPACT OF OLYMPICS AND
POTENTIAL POLITICAL FALLOUT FROM ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN

REF: A. (A) SHANGHAI 322

B. (B) SHANGHAI 320

CLASSIFIED BY: Christopher Beede, Political/Economic Section
Chief, U.S. Consulate General, Shanghai, Department of State.

REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Summary: Three East China human rights activists told
Poloff on September 10 that their activities were tightly
constrained during the recent Beijing Olympics with one of the
activists prevented from traveling to the United States to
attend a conference. Local security forces currently are in the
process of loosening controls, however, partly because the
police lack the funding to continue to maintain close
surveillance. There is growing concern in East China, they
said, of the potential political fallout of slower economic
growth as a result of the economic downturn in the United
States. They claim there is growing social discontent in the
export processing industrial areas of Zhejiang and Jiangsu
Provinces where they say unemployment is growing and wages are
stagnating. The activists said they are worried that hard
economic times -- particularly if East China experiences a sharp
or sudden decline -- will lead to social instability and more
crackdowns by the authorities. End Summary.

Beijing Olympics Restrictions Reach Hangzhou
--------------

2. (C) Wen Kejian, a well-known human rights activist and member
of the Independent Chinese Pen Center, said political activities
in his hometown of Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, were tightly
constrained during the Beijing Olympics despite the long
distance from the capital (see also Ref A). Routine meetings
with friends and other activists to chat about issues over tea
or to discuss problems informally were broken up by police.
Activists who traveled to the countryside were followed by at
least two police officers who then prevented discussions with
rural residents. Wen said many of his friends in Beijing were
placed under house arrest during the Olympics, and while

restrictions in Hangzhou were not as stringent, activities still
were constrained.


3. (C) Wen experienced the Olympic restrictions first-hand when
he was prevented from traveling via Hong Kong to the United
States on July 22 to attend a conference at the Stanford
University Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of
Law. (Note: The incident later was reported by Voice of
America (VOA) and on the Internet in China. End Note.) Wen
said he underwent a seven-month process to be able to
participate in the seminar at Stanford, but his hopes of
attending were dashed when he was detained at the Luohu border
crossing in Shenzhen and prevented from traveling despite
holding a valid U.S. visa.

Restrictions Finally Loosening
--------------

4. (C) The good news, the three activists agreed, is that the
Olympic-period restrictions now appear to be loosening. A major
reason for the change, they commented, is that posting extra
police and immigration officials is too expensive, and the local
authorities do not have sufficient funding to continue to
maintain close surveillance on human rights activists. Zhuang
Dadao, a Zhejiang-based lawyer, said he is optimistic that he
will be allowed to travel to Washington, D.C. for a law
symposium in October.

Political Impact of Economic Slowdown
--------------

5. (C) With the Olympics over, the activists said the next
significant socio-political concern in East China will be the
potential political fallout of slower economic growth as a
result of the economic downturn in the United States (Ref B and
previous). With GDP growth predicted to possibly drop below 10
percent in 2008 as a result of slowing exports to the United
States, residents of East China increasingly are concerned about
their employment prospects, they said. Eric Tsui, the Vice
Chairman of the Jiangsu Garments Guild as well as the Vice
President of the Wujiang Youth Union, said the new Labor
Contract Law also has hurt wage laborers whose companies are

SHANGHAI 00000384 002 OF 002


complying with the law and have now shortened shifts to eight
hours. Those workers now are dissatisfied with their lower
earnings (fewer hours means less total pay),particularly as
they face rising costs, Tsui said.


6. (C) Tsui and Wen added that workers' dissatisfaction will
grow, particularly if there is a sudden economic decline. A
sharp downturn would cause the level of dissatisfaction to
"explode," Tsui said. Wen Kejian said he is worried that rising
discontent and growing social instability will lead to more
crackdowns by police.

Comment: Economic Downturn's Social Impact
--------------


7. (C) The economy's impact on social instability usually has
been the subtext for any discussion with local government
officials about maintaining high GDP growth rates. It is
therefore not surprising to hear political activists voice their
own concern about the potential political fallout of the current
economic slowdown. Given economic concerns by local officials
in export-focused Zhejiang and Jiangsu (Ref B and previous),it
is possible that we will hear more economic commentary from
political activists in East China. End Comment.
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