SHANGHAI ACADEMICS ON CHINA'S ROLE IN SUDAN, ZIMBABWE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SHANGHAI 000283

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/CM
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 7/28/2033
TAGS: CH ETRD PARM PREL XA
SUBJECT: SHANGHAI ACADEMICS ON CHINA'S ROLE IN SUDAN, ZIMBABWE

REF: SHANGHAI 280

CLASSIFIED BY: Veomayoury Baccam, Acting Section Chief,
Political-Economic Section , U.S. Consulate General, Shanghai,
Department of State.

REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Summary: Shanghai's academic experts on China's foreign
policy and African studies view Zimbabwe's crisis as a strictly
internal matter that should be resolved through dialogue between
the ruling and opposition parties, and they strongly oppose any
further sanctions. The academics also believe China has been
unfairly criticized over Darfur, stating China is only one of
many players in the crisis. China may have some leverage over
Khartoum, but Western governments hold more sway over the rebel
groups. They view the International Criminal Court's (ICC's)
recent move to indict Sudanese President Bashir as
counterproductive and a sign of Western bias against the
Sudanese government. End Summary.

Zimbabwe: Need More Dialogue
--------------

2. (C) Local academics believe the situation in Zimbabwe has
improved with the recent agreement between ruling and opposition
parties, and warn that sanctions against the ruling regime would
be counterproductive. Zhang Zhongxiang, Professor at the
Department of West Asian and African Studies, Shanghai Institute
for International Studies (SIIS) stressed to Poloff during a
meeting on July 23 that Zimbabwe's political crisis is an
internal matter to be resolved by the people of Zimbabwe within
the framework of the Southern African Development Community
(SADC),African Union (AU),and the United Nations (UN). He
also stressed that sanctions against the ruling regime are
"useless" and that China will not dictate a "roadmap" for the
talks, though it hopes for a peaceful resolution. Although he
initially stated that "the people of Zimbabwe elected Mugabe as
their president, and China cannot change the will of the
people", he backtracked slightly when asked to clarify this
statement in light of accusations that the elections were
neither free nor fair. However, he continued to argue that this
is strictly an internal issue and that "China is not responsible
for changing the internal affairs of a foreign nation".


3. (C) In a meeting on July 23, Wu Xinbo, Fudan University
Center of American Studies Deputy Director, observed that
China's recent veto of the United Nations Security Council
Resolution to impose further sanctions on Zimbabwe's ruling
elite was based on principle and geopolitical considerations.
Since Zimbabwe supported China in the past when it came under
attack from the international community on human rights issues,
China cannot "betray its friend". If it goes against Zimbabwe
now, how can China count on it for support in the future? He
further noted that third world countries are an important
"political resource" for China on the international stage. "How
different is this from the United States supporting dictators
during the Cold War for geopolitical reasons?", he asked.


4. (C) Ren Xiao, Fudan University Institute for International
Studies Associate Dean, argued that the current mediation effort
should be given more time and the situation resolved through
dialogue. Any calls for further sanctions would be "premature".
He opined that China vetoed the UN Resolution for several
reasons. First, based on its own experience of facing pressure
from Western countries in the past, China is in principle
opposed to using sanctions and pressure on a sovereign nation.
Second, the situation in Zimbabwe does not pose a threat to
international peace and stability. It is fundamentally an
internal issue, and the current mediators should be given more
time. Third, the measures proposed in the sanctions resolution
would not work in any case. Ren believes Chinese and Americans
have "different mindsets" when tackling these issues, as the
Chinese prefer "quiet diplomacy behind the scenes". He predicts
a power-sharing arrangement similar to the one in Kenya and
thinks another election is "highly unlikely".

Darfur: Stop Blaming China
--------------

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5. (C) The academics all believe China is being unfairly
criticized for the situation in Darfur and China's influence in
Sudan is overplayed by the foreign media and NGOs. Wu of Fudan
noted that although China accounts for 40 percent of oil deals
in Sudan, Indonesia accounts for 30 percent, so why has
Indonesia not been criticized as well? Zhang of SIIS asserted
that, although China has some leverage over the Sudanese
government, Western governments have more leverage over the
rebel groups. Western governments, the Sudanese government,
rebel groups, neighboring countries, and China all have an equal
role to play in the peace process, so it is unfair to only
criticize China. He noted that China played a "crucial role" in
passing UN Resolution 1769 to deploy the AU-UN hybrid
peacekeeping mission (UNAMID) in Darfur, and China has already
sent large amounts of humanitarian aid to Darfur. Ren similarly
argued that China is already playing a constructive role by
persuading the Sudanese government to accept UNAMID and to
remain "flexible and cooperative" in its talks with the rebel
groups. The situation is "more complicated" than portrayed by
the Western media, he claimed.


6. (C) The academics also see the recent move by the
International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor to indict Sudanese
President Omar al Bashir as counterproductive. According to
Zhang, this illustrates the international community's bias
against the Sudanese government. He fears the ICC's move may
encourage rebel groups to adopt a tougher stance against the
government in negotiations. Ren believes an indictment of a
sitting president would set a dangerous precedent and lead many
in the developing world to view the ICC as "an instrument of
Western powers". The international community should instead
focus on moving the political process forward through engagement
with all parties. The academics also stressed that the crisis
in Darfur is "not genocide", reiterating that Darfur is only
"one of many conflicts" currently ongoing in Africa.

China's Growing Presence in Africa
--------------

7. (C) The academics see China's burgeoning relationship with
Africa in the context of China's overall economic growth and
search for resources. China is not solely focused on Africa,
Zhang pointed out. China is also looking to strengthen its
economic ties with Latin America (where Chinese investments has
grown 14 percent over the past year),the Middle East, and other
developing areas. According to Ren, China historically has had
good relations with Africa; there are no bad memories of Chinese
colonization of Africa, and they share a sense of camaraderie as
developing countries.


8. (C) Zhang thinks Western accusations of bad practice by
Chinese companies in Africa are misguided; Africans have
welcomed Chinese investments and appreciate foreign businesses
not tied to Western countries. Wu also observed that the
Chinese are generally received positively by African governments
and people. However, both he and Ren noted that the Chinese
government has recently become sensitive to foreign criticism of
Chinese business practices. Chinese embassies and consulates in
Africa have been tasked with closely monitoring Chinese company
practices. However, in practice, the Chinese government only
has strong influence over state-owned enterprises (SOEs) but
carry little sway over private Chinese companies, which,
according to Zhang, account for over 700 out of the 900 or so
Chinese companies operating in Africa. Wu and Ren downplayed
the Chinese government's role in Chinese business practices in
Africa, stating it can only "advise" and "make suggestions" to
private Chinese companies on labor and environmental issues.

Comment
--------------

9. (C) There continue to be few pure Africa experts in
Shanghai. Wu and Ren are better known for their work on
security issues and U.S.-China relations, and both look at
Africa issues from a general Chinese strategic viewpoint. Zhang
is head of the recently established African studies program at
SIIS. As SIIS President Yang Jiemian explained during a recent
meeting (see reftel),SIIS is trying to expand its research into
diverse fields. SIIS Vice President Chen Dongxiao mentioned
that Africa is now a "hot topic" among academics, so other
institutes may follow suit with African studies programs in the

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future.
JARRETT