SHANGHAI SIIS SCHOLARS COMMENT ON POST-ELECTION TAIWAN,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SHANGHAI 000127

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE ALSO FOR DAS CHRISTENSEN
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER, KURT TONG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/28/2033
TAGS: PREL PGOV CH TW
SUBJECT: SHANGHAI SIIS SCHOLARS COMMENT ON POST-ELECTION TAIWAN,
CAUTION AGAINST POTENTIAL MA TRIP TO UNITED STATES

REF: (A) SHANGHAI 118, (B) SHANGHAI 122, (C) SHANGHAI 126

CLASSIFIED BY: Simon Schuchat, Deputy Principal Officer, U.S.
Consulate General, Shanghai, China, Department of State.

REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Summary: On March 28, 2008, Deputy Principal Officer
(DPO) met with Yan Anlin, Executive Vice Director of Taiwan
Affairs and Cross-Strait Relations, Shanghai Institute for
International Studies (SIIS),and Zhang Xihong, Researcher,
Taiwan Affairs and Cross-Strait Relations, SIIS to discuss the
recent Taiwan presidential election. Yan repeated concerns (ref
C) about a possible Ma visit to the United States, stating that
U.S.-Taiwan relations could be improved by other means. Yan
stated that Ma Ying-jeou's victory was no surprise, but his
margin of victory was greater than expected. He attributed this
to voters' concerns about the economy, Chen Shui-bian's
over-politicization of cross-Strait relations, and Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Frank Hsieh's lackluster
campaign. Although optimistic that overall cross-Strait
relations will improve significantly under Ma, Yan cautioned
that Ma's victory does not totally resolve all problems in the
relationship. End summary.

Election Results
--------------


2. (C) Yan stated that Ma Ying-jeou's victory in the March 22
Taiwan presidential election was not a surprise; however, the
double digit margin of victory was greater than he had expected.
Yan attributed this to a combination of factors, the most
important being Taiwan voters' concerns about the Taiwan
economy. Ma gave voters greater hope for economic improvement,
while DPP candidate Frank Hsieh's scare tactics, warning against
Taiwan jobs moving to the mainland, did not resonate with
voters. Yan believes Ma's wide victory was also attributable to
mistakes by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP),such as its
focus on United Nations membership referenda, politicization of
cross-Strait relations, and corruption. Another factor
contributing to Ma's victory was Hsieh's lackluster campaign
performance, which did not present clear policy options and
failed to connect with voters. Yan cautioned that expectations
for Ma in Taiwan are now very high, and he will face pressure to
show concrete results, especially in the economy, within his
first one to two years in office.

Concerns over Potential Ma Trip to United States
-------------- ---


3. (C) Yan asked if the United States will approve a visit by Ma
to the United States prior to Ma's inauguration. DPO responded
that this will be decided in Washington. Yan asserted that
Beijing would not be happy if such a visit took place, nor does
Ma need to visit the United States in order to improve
U.S.-Taiwan relations. This can be achieved through the
American Institute in Taiwan or other channels. However, he
added that Beijing is still discussing this internally. In
Yan's view, Ma should focus on revitalizing the economy and
establishing himself in Taiwan rather than making overseas trips.

Relationship Heading in Positive Direction
--------------


4. (C) Yan was optimistic that cross-Strait relations will
improve significantly once Ma assumes office, and he believes
Beijing is relieved by the election results, and by the defeat
of the two referendums. However, Ma's election does not
instantly resolve all problems in the relationship; both sides
must examine ways to eventually achieve a one country, two
systems arrangement.


5. (C) Yan emphasized the importance of President Hu Jintao's
March 4 speech at the Chinese People's Political Conference
(CPPCC),in which he proposed a "Roadmap for Cross-Strait
Peaceful Development." Yan believes Ma's thinking is in line
with Hu's "Roadmap", but the key is how to actually achieve
peaceful development on both sides. Both sides should first

SHANGHAI 00000127 002 OF 002


focus on the economy, and later move on to political
reconciliation. Yan observed that the upcoming World Health
Assembly is scheduled for May 19, a day before Ma's
inauguration. This timing is awkward since the DPP will
technically still be in power at that time. However, there are
expectations, based on Hu's statement in his speech, that China
is prepared to consider the question of Taiwan's "international
space," presuming an acceptance of the "one China" principle by
Taiwan. Beijing will be very attentive to the content of Ma's
inauguration speech on May 20. Yan also expressed concern that
the DPP will "cause trouble" for Ma over the next two months
between the election and inauguration. He did not elaborate on
what "trouble" this might be, but merely joked, "a Chen
Shui-bian who doesn't cause trouble isn't really Chen Shui-bian."


6. (C) Yan's colleague Zhang Xihong does not expect any mainland
representation at the May 20 inauguration, even by non-official
or retired figures. Chinese media will report the event, but
will not make any special arrangements to cover it. In addition
to widely available Phoenix TV satellite broadcasts, academics
who specialize in Taiwan affairs have access to Taiwan TV
programming.

Four Direct Flights a Week?
--------------


7. (C) The "three links" - direct air flights, direct sea
routes, and direct postal service - are a high priority for both
sides, but scheduled direct air service between Taiwan and the
mainland is still difficult to realize. However, four direct
cross-Strait charter flights per week - on Friday, Saturday,
Sunday, and Monday - are a real possibility in the near future.
Of course, at first it would primarily be Taiwan residents who
could make use of these charter flights. Taiwan residents can
already obtain travel documents to visit the mainland through
travel agents in Taipei (Yan stated that processing time is
about one week) or even upon landing at Shanghai, Xiamen, and
other mainland airports from Hong Kong, Macau or other
intermediate stops. It is still relatively more difficult for
mainland passport holders to travel to Taiwan, since Taiwan does
not have a comparable mechanism to process their travel
documents to the island. However, this is a technical matter
that can be resolved easily if both sides wish to.

Cross-Strait Dialogue
--------------


8. (C) According to Yan, Taiwan's Strait Exchange Foundation
(SEF) and the PRC's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan
Strait (ARATS) will probably be the principal channel for
communications between the two sides. Yan was uncertain as to
who is likely to become the heads of either of the
organizations. On the mainland side, former Foreign Ministers
Qian Qichen or Tang Jiaxuan, former Vice Premier Wu Yi, or
current State Council Taiwan Affairs Office Director Chen Yunlin
are all possibilities. Yan emphasized that Beijing will chose
the next head of ARATS without reference to Ma's choice for SEF
chair. Furthermore, the ARATS chief will not have to be an
expert on Taiwan issues: the most important qualification will
be a close relationship with President Hu Jintao.
JARRETT