CHINA 'CANNOT ACCEPT' MA YING-JEOU U.S. VISIT, SHANGHAI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SHANGHAI 000126

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE ALSO FOR EAP DAS CHRISTENSEN
STATE FOR EAP/CM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/28/2033
TAGS: PREL PGOV CH TW
SUBJECT: CHINA 'CANNOT ACCEPT' MA YING-JEOU U.S. VISIT, SHANGHAI
TAIWAN SCHOLAR ASSERTS

REF: SHANGHAI 122

CLASSIFIED BY: Simon Schuchat, Deputy Principal Officer, U.S.
Consulate General, Shanghai, China, Department of State.

REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Summary: Professor Zhang Nianchi, Director of the
influential Shanghai Institute for East Asian Studies (SIEAS)
and expert on cross-strait relations, told DPO that Beijing
would "not be able to accept" a visit by Taiwan's
president-elect Ma Ying-jeou to the United States, in a March 27
meeting. Zhang described the results of Taiwan's March 22
election as "very happy" but cautioned that Taiwan is a
long-term issue that will not be resolved overnight. Zhang
suggested that now is the most opportune time for U.S.-China
cooperation on the Taiwan issue. Hu Lingwei and Zhang Zuqian
of SIEAS and Poloff (notetaker) also attended the meeting.
(Comment: Attesting to SIEAS and Zhang Nianchi's influence in
Beijing, the Central Government has "used" all of the 18 SIEAS
reports - a record for the institute - on Taiwan politics and
cross-strait relations issued since the January legislative
elections, according to Zhang.) End Summary.


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Beijing 'Cannot Accept' Ma Visit to United States
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2. (C) Professor Zhang Nianchi described Ma Ying-jeou's request
to visit the United States as a "new problem." Zhang stated
that Beijing would "not be able to accept" such a visit, even if
Ma traveled as a tourist prior to his inauguration in May, and
stated that China and the United States need to consult on this
issue. Zhang argued that there are other mechanisms for
achieving whatever purpose Ma is trying to accomplish by going
to the United States. Ma can easily communicate with the United
States from Taipei. Suggesting that Beijing is still
formulating its strategy with regard to Ma's potential U.S.
trip, however, Zhang said "we need to do more preparation" on
this subject. (Comment: Zhang's perception of Beijing's
position on this issue sharply differs from that expressed by
Fudan University's Wu Xinbo during a March 26 meeting with DPO
(Reftel). End Comment.)


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"Cross-strait Relations Will Be a Bit Better, But..."
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3. (C) Zhang described the results of Taiwan's election as
"very happy" in that voters chose "peace" and did not approve
the United Nations membership referenda. Though the election
result is a positive step, solving the Taiwan problem is still
"not easy." Zhang suggested the United States and other
countries should not have high expectations for cross-strait
relations just on the basis of the election. The United States
and other countries, Zhang said, should treat the issue with
"patience" because it "will not be resolved tomorrow."
(Comment: We expect that Zhang is likewise counseling Beijing
to have patience. End comment.)



4. (C) In particular, the political definition of "Taiwan" or
"Republic of China" within the context of "one China," is a very
sensitive question and will not be easy to resolve, noted Zhang,
but with Ma Ying-jeou in office, there is now an "opportunity to
discuss" this issue. Zhang also brought up values and ideology,
saying that the Mainland and Ma Ying-jeou have great value
differences in areas such as human rights. Overcoming years of
anti-Communist ideology under the KMT, followed by years of
anti-China perceptions in Taiwan under Lee Teng-hui and Chen
Shui-bian, will be difficult. According to Zhang, Ma's
criticism of Premier Wen Jiabao also marks the first time a
leader in Taiwan has leveled harsh criticism publicly against
the Chinese premier, and this is "difficult for the Mainland to
accept." Ma's comments on the Olympics have also rubbed Beijing
the wrong way.

SHANGHAI 00000126 002 OF 002





5. (C) On the positive side, Zhang is hopeful that there will
be communication between Beijing and Taipei. The channel
between the mainland's Association for Relations Across the
Taiwan Straits (ARATS) and Taiwan's Straits Exchange Foundation
(SEF) will probably be revived. He thought it was most likely
that Chen Yunlin and others from the State Council's Taiwan
Affairs Office would move to the ARATS office, which is next
door to their current office. If Taipei appoints a more senior
figure to head the SEF, however, Beijing would reciprocate.



6. (C) Zhang was optimistic that direct weekend charter flights
between Taiwan and the mainland could probably be implemented
quickly. Likewise, mainland tourism to Taiwan would probably
begin relatively soon. However, full implementation of the
"three links" might take longer. He noted that the World Health
Assembly would meet before Ma's inauguration, which made it more
difficult for Beijing to take any steps in the direction of
increasing Taiwan's "international space," since the DPP would
still be in power at that time.


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Accurate Prediction of Outcome
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7. (C) Zhang said that his institute had predicted the outcome
of the election, including the point spread, quite accurately.
In his view, Ma's support is conditional and will depend on the
success of his economic policies. According to SIEAS's
analysis, the unrest in Tibet may have cost Ma as much as five
percent of his support. However, Hsieh's attempt to win votes
by demonizing the KMT's proposed "common market" with China was
a failure.


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U.S.-China Cooperation has been excellent
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8. (C) The cooperation between Beijing and Washington in
advance of the election and the accompanying referendums has
been unprecedented, according to Zhang. He was uncertain
whether, in the future, there would again be such close
cooperation between China and the U.S. on the Taiwan issue.
Zhang credited the good personal relationship between President
Bush and Hu Jintao as the key factor in our successful
cooperation. Zhang was eager to know whether the United States
expected to play a mediating role in the cross-strait
relationship, albeit ambivalent on his preferred answer to the
question.
JARRETT