NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTION: COSTLY WIN FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 000728

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KN KS
SUBJECT: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTION: COSTLY WIN FOR
PRESIDENT LEE


Classified By: POL Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In the April 9 general elections, in which
voters threw in their ballot for all 299 seats in the
National Assembly, the ruling Grand National Party (GNP)
gained a small majority with 153 seats. Nevertheless, the
GNP majority combined with the surprisingly good showing by
independent conservative candidates and those from minor
parties signals a major parliamentary ideological shift from
progressive to conservative. Within the GNP, however, the
battles may only be beginning. President Lee lost his
closest confidants while supporters of his political rival
Park Geun-hye won about 50 seats, many out of GNP. The slim
GNP majority means that President Lee will have to make
compromises with the Park group and/or other conservatives in
order to get his legislation through.


2. (SBU) The election outcome also demonstrated that
regionalism in Korea is alive and well in South Korea. The
United Democratic Party cleaned up in the Jeolla Provinces
while the GNP won most of the seats in the Gyeongsang
Provinces. The Chungcheong region also saw the birth of its
own regional party: Lee Hoi-chang's Liberty First Party.
With factional and regional fight making headlines, there was
no room for political issue or policy debate. Predictably,
voters showed limited interest; voter turnout was record low
(46.1 percent),down by 14.6 percent from the previous 17th
National Assembly election (60.6 percent). END SUMMARY.

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Progressives Perish
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3. (U) The opposition UDP (United Democratic Party) was the
big loser, gaining only 81 seats, about half the number in
the previous election. The extreme left minor parties also
took hits - the Democratic Labor Party (DLP) got 5 seats,
again only half its current 9 seats, and its splinter New
Progressive Party (NPP) failed to win any. Also in this camp
is Moon Kuk-hyun's Renewal of Korea Party, which won three
seats.


4. (U) The GNP's 153 seats fell well short of its goal,
because pundits had been predicting 160-180 seats. Still,
independent conservative candidates and minor conservative
parties chalked up surprising wins. The Pro-Park Alliance
(PPA),comprised of Park Geun-hye supporters controversially
prevented from running under the GNP banner, earned 14 seats;
another 12 pro-Park Geun-hye candidates won as independents.
Also solidly in the conservative camp is three-time
presidential contender Lee Hoi-chang's Liberal Forward Party
(LFP) with 18 seats. Thus the conservatives control around
200 seats, a commanding presence in the 299-seat chamber and
well above the 130 seats they won in the last election.

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Provincial Power
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5. (SBU) Korea's deep-seated regionalism remained intact.
The GNP (or conservative independents) practically swept the
southeast Gyeongsang region, with only a handful of the 68
districts -- Cho Kyung-tae (UDP) won in Pusan, Choi Chul-kuk
(UDP) in Gimhae, Kang Ki-gap (DLP) in Sacheon, and Kwon
Young-ghil (DLP) in Changwon -- going to liberal/progressive
candidates. Correspondingly, the UDP won big in the
traditionally liberal Jeolla region; no GNP candidate won in
Jeolla. The Chungcheong region, the traditional battle
ground of the two major parties, decided to go its own way,
backing its native son Lee Hoi-chang's new party, the LFP,
which took 13 out of the 16 South Chungcheong and Daejeon
districts.

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Power Jockeying
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6. (SBU) The April 9 election was a qualified victory for the
President. The election outcome puts about 100 "Pro-Lee"
lawmakers in place, but they will need significant help to
form a majority. Moreover, the surprising defeat of some of

President Lee's key confidants like Lee Jae-o and Lee Bang-ho
could lead to a reshuffling within the pro-Lee faction. One
Blue House contact noted the Lees and other key aides would
surely find other positions in the Administration.


7. (C) An important reason for the defeat of key Lee
Myung-bak faction leaders is Park Geun-hye, who had accused
them of victimizing her own supporters in the nomination.
Staying put in her Daegu home, Park refused to campaign for
any candidate. However, her supporters rallied to her cause,
even starting a new party, the Pro-Park Alliance. They
promoted key Park faction members and also targeted the high
profile legislators from the Lee camp, many of whom lost what
would have been easy races.


8. (C) Park supporters won 56 districts -- 30 within the
GNP, 12 independents, and 14 Pro-Park Alliance candidates.
The whole nomination and election process, therefore,
validated Park as a major political figure with deep support
among lawmakers and the public at large. Moreover, she no
longer has to contend, at least in the National Assembly,
with pro-Lee lawmakers like Lee Jae-o, Lee Bang-ho and Park
Hyung-joon who all lost their seats.


9. (C) The outcome for the UDP was not quite a disaster the
liberals had feared. Certainly, with 81, the liberals won
many more seats than what anyone had expected after the UDP's
disastrous showing in the presidential election. The UDP,
with support from the fringe left-leaning parties, will be
able to function as a legitimate progressive political force.
Still, the of many of the senior party members -- Kim
Geun-tae, Han Myoung-sook, Yoo In-tae, Shin Ki-nam -- as well
as prominent 386ers -- Im Jong-seok, Choi Jae-cheon, Woo
Sang-ho -- might make their attempts to find their voice more
difficult and could spark more infighting in the run-up to
the UDP party convention likely at the end of May.

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COMMENT
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10. (C) There were two clear winners in the National Assembly
elections: Park Geun-hye and conservatives in Korea. There
will be plenty of power-politicking as the conservative
leaders, principally President Lee and Park Geun-hye, try to
find a formula to work with each other. Lee, of course, has
all the power levers associated with being the president.
His, however, is a single-term presidency, while Park has
emerged as the clear favorite among the Korean voters as the
most likely occupant of the Blue House next time around.
VERSHBOW