SOHN PLAYS UDP'S LOSING HAND WELL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 000513

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KS KN
SUBJECT: SOHN PLAYS UDP'S LOSING HAND WELL

REF: SEOUL 00096

Classified By: POL Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: The United Democratic Party's (UDP)
resounding defeat in the December presidential election left
the party struggling to get out from under the shadow of
unpopular former President Roh Moo-hyun. Moreover, the new
party chief, former Grand National Party (GNP) member Sohn
Hak-kyu, seemed unable to articulate a vision for Korea that
differed significantly from that of GNP rivals. The UDP is
still likely to lose a significant number of seats (they
currently have a near-majority with 141 out of 298) in April,
but under Sohn's leadership the party is doing better than
most pundits expected. Instead of trying to challenge former
Hyundai Construction CEO and current President Lee Myung-bak
on economic policy -- the number one issue for Korean voters
-- the party has instead focused on fighting battles over
government restructuring and cabinet nominees, highlighting
issues like inter-Korean relations that resonate with UDP
ideology and that most Koreans support. The UDP is also
working on its public image by purging senior lawmakers to
emphasize cleaner politics and to distance the party from
previous administrations. UDP's support ratings remain low,
but they will do better than many once thought, and Sohn has
succeeded in transforming himself into a party leader,
whether or not he wins a National Assembly seat in April.
End Summary.

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"No Policy" Policy
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2. (C) Neither UDP leader Sohn Hak-kyu nor party members
have made any effort to distinguish their policies from that
of their GNP counterparts. Although the "no policy" policy
may have been born out of party dysfunction and
disorganization following its candidate's resounding defeat
in the December presidential election, the UDP has wisely
stuck with it, seemingly recognizing the futility of trying
to inspire voters on policy issues.

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Oppositional Not Obstructionist
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3. (C) The UDP has been aided in no small way by Lee
Myung-bak's overly ambitious policy agenda. Instead of
concentrating on getting his government in place, Lee and his
transition team spent most of the two months between the
election and the inauguration fighting with the UDP over
Lee's government restructuring plan, which would have cut the
number of ministries from 18 to 13. Most controversial of
the ministries slated for destruction were the Ministries of
Unification (MOU) and of Gender Equality and Family (MOGEF).
Few expected Lee to be successful in folding MOU into the
foreign ministry, but the UDP also successfully argued for
the preservation of MOGEF. The timing of this debate was key
as the UDP acquiesced to a compromise solution just as the
public tired of the issue.


4. (C) Lee Myung-bak's decision to select cabinet nominees
based solely on their ability, apparently ignoring their
chances for approval in a progressive-dominated National
Assembly, gave the UDP a fight that they could sink their
teeth into. Especially contentious was the selection of Nam
Joo-hong to lead the MOU. Nam, an avowed hardliner on North
Korea policy, concerned progressives both because of the
impact he would have on inter-Korean relations and because of
the message such an appointment would send to the North. The
wealth of Lee's cabinet picks also raised eyebrows and
eventually resulted in two nominees stepping down to avoid
controversy. Having successfully cast itself as
pro-engagement policy and anti-wealth, the UDP took its
modest victory and approved the rest of Lee's cabinet picks.

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Park's Revolution
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5. (C) While the GNP's nomination process for the April 9
National Assembly election has been dominated by squabbling
between President Lee Myung-bak and former GNP chair Park
Geun-hye, the UDP's headlines have featured the party's
attempt to replace its old guard with new faces. In what
media reports are calling "Park's Revolution," nominating
committee chairman Park Jae-seung on March 13 announced that
nine incumbent lawmakers (31 percent of its 29 lawmakers) in
the staunchly liberal Jeolla provinces would not get the
party's nomination for the elections. The nominating
committee said that the Assemblymen were cut out because they
have performed poorly, had been sentenced to jail terms, or
had failed to gain support from residents in their respective
constituencies. Conveniently, these representatives and
others rejected nationwide are also those most strongly
affiliated with the previous liberal administrations of Kim
Dae-jung and the still unpopular Roh Moo-hyun. Left off the
ticket were Kim Hong-eop, son of former President Kim
Dae-jung; Park Jie-won, Kim's chief of staff; and Chung
Dong-chae, former culture minister under Roh.


6. (C) The UDP is also pitting party heavyweights in key
constituencies. On March 13, UDP chief Sohn Hak-kyu
announced he would face off against prominent GNP lawmaker
Park Jin in northern Seoul's Jongno district. This
politically astute move positions Sohn to win either way. If
he loses, he will be seen as having fallen on his sword for
the party. If he wins, he will have established his
credentials as a vote-getter and the undisputed leader of the
opposition UDP. In a March 16 Chosun Newspaper poll, Sohn
trails Park Jin 30.4 to 39.7 percent. Still, Jongno is not a
bad fit for Sohn, and his poll numbers could come up. Known
as "the number one address in Korean politics," where both
Roh Moo-hyun and Lee Myung-bak both once served, Jongno has
been historically kind to the opposition party and many
voters may see Sohn's election there as an effective check on
GNP power.


7. (C) Former presidential candidate Chung Dong-young
announced he would run for the UDP in Dongjak, another Seoul
district, against the GNP's Lee Koon-hyon, a key member of
Lee Myung-bak's campaign team. In the GNP's final list,
however, GNP heavyweight Chung Mong-joon announced he would
run against Chung Dong-young in Dongjak instead of his home
district of Ulsan. In the same Chosun Newspaper poll, Chung
Mong-joon beat out Chung Dong-young by 12 percentage points.

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Comment
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8. (C) The UDP still stands to lose in the April elections.
Their support rates hover just under 20 percent. That said,
the party -- and Sohn in particular -- have played a better
hand than most expected. Though Sohn may not have
significantly increased public support for the party, he
succeeded in eroding support for President Lee and the GNP
through effective attacks on Lee missteps. In January, Sohn
told the Ambassador (reftel) that the UDP expected to lose
all of the Seoul Metropolitan seats. Two months later, GNP
and UDP candidates are in statistical dead-heats in eight of
the 17 Seoul districts Chosun polled, and the campaign season
is not yet officially underway. Though the overall results
underscore the GNP's supremacy in Seoul, Sohn has proven
himself as a skilled party leader and increased the
probability that the UDP will present the Lee Administration
with a viable opposition in the next National Assembly.
VERSHBOW