ELECTION RUNUP: GNP GOING STRONG; LIBERAL LOSS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 000453

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KN KS
SUBJECT: ELECTION RUNUP: GNP GOING STRONG; LIBERAL LOSS
LOOMS

Classified By: POL Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: Despite recent stumbles by the Grand
National Party (GNP) and President Lee Myung-bak, continued
attacks on Lee's appointees, and record low support for a
president days after inauguration (49 percent in a March 1
Hankyoreh poll),the GNP still holds the pole position
heading into the official campaign season for the April 9
National Assembly elections. Recent highlights include
internecine feuding among factions in the Grand National
Party (GNP) over nominations and a resurgent United
Democratic Party (UDP),which has scored some political
points by excluding candidates with past convictions of
corruption. The UDP's inability to differentiate itself on
policy, however, seemingly makes most voters reluctant to
support its candidates. The end result will almost certainly
be a GNP-controlled Assembly. End Summary


2. (C) Problems with Lee's nominees continue to make front
page headlines -- the latest scandal accuses Kim Sung-ho,
Lee's nominee to head the National Intelligence Service (NIS)
of taking bribes from the Samsung group. Assembly contacts
note Lee likely knew Kim was implicated in the Samsung
investigation but nominated him anyway, assuming that people
were tired of the fighting over the cabinet and that the
allegations would not stick. Previously, three of Lee's
nominees dropped out due to pressure from the UDP and now Lee
faces criticism from all sides; even staunchly conservative
dailies have chided Lee for a sloppy nomination process and
encouraged him to screen his personnel selections more
carefully.


3. (C) Former GNP Chair Park Geun-hye spoke out March 6
against the "unfair" nomination process, asking if it was a
"crime" to have supported her and accused the nominating
committee of retaliation against her. Many of Park's key
supporters failed to gain the nomination. According to a key
Park advisor, Park must fight publicly to protect her
supporters who still have a chance to gain a nomination, but
the current cut-throat atmosphere would not have
long-reaching consequences and would not break up the party.
Other GNP contacts echoed this statement, noting Park had to
do all that she could, but that in reality the balance of
power in the party had already shifted to President Lee
Myung-bak.

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GNP Set for a Big Win?
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4. (C) Many political observers believe the GNP could win as
many as 200 seats out of 299 in the upcoming election. Top
political pollster Han Gui-young of KSOI told poloff she
expected the GNP to win at least 180 seats. She told poloff
that Lee and his team had made mistakes but insisted the
progressive UDP had offered no viable alternative. In the
crucial Seoul-Gyeonggi Province districts where 100 seats are
up for grabs as well as almost half of the proportional seats
(43 seats are determined by overall support for the parties
while 256 are determined by district races),Han said there
were no sure bets among the UDP and worse, no UDP candidate
who had a favorable rating. This did not mean the GNP would
sweep the seats in the region, but that the UDP would be hard
pressed to win more than 30 seats in the metropolitan area.

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Others Say GNP Hard Pressed to Gain a Majority
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5. (C) Park Sung-min, another leading political consultant,
told poloff that the UDP could win up to 40 seats in the
metropolitan area (including districts in Incheon there are
112 metropolitan districts). He argued that the Assembly
races were not tied to national trends, which favored the
GNP, but rather depended on the people nominated and the
characteristics of the district. In Korea, a nominee does
not need to have any relation or history with a district and
there is no residency requirement. In some cases, GNP
nominees will likely be young, politically inexperienced Lee
Myung-bak supporters with little local connection. These
candidates will fare poorly, Park explained, especially in
districts with high Jeolla-based population.



6. (C) Even more pessimistic, Lee Sung-heun, the GNP
candidate for Seodaemun, told poloff that it would be
difficult for the GNP to gain a majority in the Assembly.
His logic was that Seoul's population overall was 35 percent
from the Jeolla region (as is Lee himself) and, while these
voters voted either for Lee Myung-bak or did not vote
December 19, they would turn out en masse for UDP candidates
in April, forming a formidable bloc. Therefore, it would be
a challenge for all Seoul-based GNP candidates.

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View from the UDP
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7. (C) According to UDP contacts, things are looking up as
the April 9 elections approach; the party should be able to
win close to 100 seats. This optimism stems from recent
missteps by Lee and faith that Korean voters will want to
check Lee's power. Admitting the GNP's popularity far
exceeded the UDP's (47.8 percent to 13.9 percent in a March 3
Hankyoreh poll),several UDP contacts noted voters might
select the GNP in the party vote, but select the UDP
candidate in their district because of a desire to limit Lee
Myung-bak's power and accord a preference for a known local
figure, if the GNP candidate is a new arrival. Many voters
wanted a legitimate liberal opposition party, which would
help UDP candidates. Also, the merger between the Democratic
Party (DP) and the United New Democratic Party, which created
the UDP, would help unite Jeolla voters in Seoul, the key to
success for any UDP candidate.


8. (C) Head of the UDP nominating committee Park Seung-jae
recently announced that several leading UDP figures would not
receive the nomination because of past bribery and corruption
convictions. This was a smart move because the GNP last
month decided to allow those who had been previously
convicted of election law violations to compete for the
nomination.

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Comment
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9. (C) One month before the elections, indications are that
the GNP will gain a majority, making Lee Myung-bak's life
easier as he attempts to push through extensive reforms and
big projects. Until April 9, all new policy proposals are on
hold less they upset the electoral balance. This means a
complete lack of any meaningful policy debate. Rather,
candidates are concentrating on bringing each other down on
negative campaigns, particularly involving personal finance,
military service, and dirt involving the candidates' family
members.
VERSHBOW